Betting the Farm On Two Young Arms

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The New York Sun

The Mets and Yankees (the latter in particular) don’t get much attention these days for the strength of their farm systems. Part of this is because the two teams, wisely or unwisely, endeavor to position themselves as contenders year after year. As fans of these two teams know well, this often entails acquiring premium free agents at the expense of giving compensatory draft picks or prospects to the player’s former team.


While no objective analysis can lead to the conclusion that the two systems are among baseball’s best, each happens to be blessed with one of the finest young arms in the game. The Yankees have Philip Hughes, while the Mets have Yusmeiro Petit.


The Yankees chose the right-handed Hughes, a product of Foothill High School in Santa Ana, California, with the 23rd pick of the 2004 draft. Hughes is blessed with a classic power-pitcher’s build (6-foot-5, 220 pounds), and has polish that belies his young age. He sports a mid-90s fastball with good movement, and a slider and changeup that both have plus potential. In the case of the lattermost pitch, it’s rare to see a hard-throwing high school-trained arm with such command of his off-speed stuff.


As the numbers go, Hughes saw only five innings of action in 2004 because the Yankees opted to shut him down with a sore elbow. Luckily for Hughes and the Yanks, his malady was merely a case of tendonitis. Hughes opened the 2005 season in the Low-A Sally League. Despite competing against a generally older peer group (he didn’t turn 19 until late June), Hughes fanned 72 batters, walked 16, gave up only a single home run, and allowed 2.49 runs per game in 68.2 innings.


On the strength of that performance, the Yankees promoted Hughes to High-A Tampa in early July, where his numbers actually improved, albeit in very limited action. In 17.2 innings, Hughes recorded 21 strikeouts, walked four, and did not allow a home run.


Several things are impressive about Hughes, the first of which is his level of success against more experienced competitors. Second is his preternatural command of a changeup, the lack of which often forces promising young fireballers to the bullpen. Third, there’s his rare tandem of strikeout abilities and groundball tendencies. As you can see in the accompanying chart, Hughes has whiffed almost ten batters per nine innings, and in more than 90 innings as a pro he’s given up only a single home run. There aren’t many pitchers even at the major league level who can keep the ball on the ground and make hitters miss (Chris Carpenter, A.J. Burnett, and Felix Hernandez come to mind), but Hughes has thus far demonstrated both skills. It remains to be seen how he fares in the more advanced rungs of the Yankee system, but so far his performance has been unassailable.


As for Petit, also a righty, the Mets signed him in 2001 as a non-drafted free agent out of Venezuela. Like Hughes, Petit has command of three pitches, though scouts are generally less wowed by his stuff. That’s mostly because his fastball comes in with a little less oomph and movement than that of Hughes. Still, exceedingly rare is the 19-year-old who throws three pitches for strikes and has thrived in the high minors.


Entering 2005, the main concern regarding Petit was whether his fastball would hold up in the higher levels of the minors. Well, his performance at Double-A this season (and the way he dominated the Venezuelan winter leagues last year) should lay those concerns to rest. At Binghamton, Petit fanned 130, walked only 18, and posted a runs-per-game average of 3.14 in 117.2 innings. He’s succeeding by hiding the ball until late in his delivery and by exhibiting pinpoint control. Those are the kind of skills that will serve him well at all levels.


The Mets gave Petit a late-season promotion to Triple-A, where he struggled somewhat. But he did pitch a certifiable gem (14 strikeouts in eight innings) against Toledo in the International League playoffs on September 8. And keep in mind 19 is quite a young age to be pitching against Doubleand Triple-A competition. Given the rapid promotion schedule to date, don’t be surprised if he’s in Queens for good by the All-Star break next season. 38 2108 191 2119


As comparisons go, Petit has marginally better command and strikeout indicators, and has found greater success against more advanced competition. Hughes, meanwhile, has better raw stuff and much stronger groundball tendencies. Still, Petit gets the nod at this juncture for proving himself in the higher levels. The hardest transition for a young player to make, of course, is from Triple-A to the majors, but it’s almost as difficult to go from the High-A level to Double-A. Petit has done that with a staggering degree of success, and he’s not even 20.


As is the case with any two young and talented hurlers, Petit and Hughes will need to stay healthy to reach their potential (Hughes, as mentioned, battled an elbow problem last year, while Petit missed almost a month this season with a sore shoulder). However, if the numbers and the hosannas from scouts are any guide, we’ll be having Hughes-versus-Petit debates for the next decade or so. And if the Mets and Yankees are smart, we’ll be having them in New York.



Mr. Perry is a writer for Baseball Prospectus. For more state-of-the-art commentary and information, please visit www.baseballprospectus.com.


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