NFC Contenders Take a Step Backward

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Entering Week 5, the jury was still out on the league’s three 3–1 teams: the Lions, Buccaneers, and Seahawks. Feel free now to make your judgments, clip those hanging chads, cast those votes — our suspicions that these teams were less than advertised proved to be true yesterday.

Not shockingly, these teams all reside in the same conference, the NFC. Stow that thought for just a minute.

The Lions and their paper-thin defense surprised no one by melting against a workman-like Redskins offense, but the shocker was that their offense went completely silent in their 34–3 loss to Washington. How do you stop Jon Kitna, Roy Williams, Calvin Johnson, et al? You do as the Redskins’ defensive guru Gregg Williams did: Drop seven in coverage most of the time, draw up stunts and twists for the defensive line, and watch the sacks — five on Sunday — and turnovers rack up.

The Seahawks faced stiff competition in the underappreciated Steelers, so their 21–0 loss is not a shock. But the Seattle offense was absolutely feckless. The Steelers held the ball for more than 40 minutes, beating down the Seahawks’ defense for a punishing 163 rushing yards and being carved up by a surgical Ben Roethlisberger (18-of-22 passing). It was akin to a heavyweight eschewing a knockout for a slow, 15-round defeat instead.

The Colts took care of the Bucs at home, 33–14, relying heavily on rookie replacements — running back Kenton Keith (158 total yards, two touchdowns) and wide receiver Anthony Gonzalez (seven receptions, 71 yards) who filled in for Joseph Addai and Marvin Harrison. Tampa Bay’s offense stalled with an injury-addled run game and a passing offense that was forced to check down all day because of the Colts’ two-deep coverage.

These losses also prove a larger truth: The NFC remains the junior conference— and by a healthy margin.

The Packers have gotten off to a nice start but are in dire need of a ground game. The Redskins have led in every game and can be forgiven for losing to the Giants, but they’ll go only as far as Jason Campbell and a patched-up O-line will take them. The Cowboys, on display tonight against a shorthanded but game Bills team, might just be the NFC’s premiere club. But are they in the class of the Patriots or Colts? Or a step back: How about the Steelers or the Titans or the Jaguars, all very intriguing one-loss teams? Yet to be determined.

To NFL types, the argument is a tad hackneyed; few argue that the NFC is the better conference. But are we as far out of whack in terms of conference power balance as we ever have been?

Let’s assume for the time being that (a) the Cowboys beat the Bills and (b) they at least hang tough next Sunday against the Patriots in what could be a Super Bowl preview next weekend. Is that it? Is that all the NFC can offer? Most of us already have decided that the

Patriots and Colts are going to make one hell of an AFC title game. The NFC doesn’t even get that treatment — we can’t find anyone in the Cowboys’ class in the lesser conference to play at their level yet.

So looking forward, oh, three and a half months is a bit ridiculous. But what has made the NFL so exciting over the past decade is the chase, the uprising and the mystery of the underdog down the stretch. And who knows, maybe some lesser club will knock off one of the big boys in the postseason.

In the AFC, there are candidates galore. In fact, you could make a case for about nine teams being playoff-caliber clubs.

But it’s an entirely different story in the NFC. That’s why yesterday was so disappointing.

The Lions looked like one of those intriguing teams that was so proficient and frightening offensively that we were willing to overlook a bad D against the run clubs. But it’s impossible to overlook their two losses — by a combined 66 points — to the Eagles and Redskins. They are far too stubborn in their offensive sets, unwilling to protect Kitna or, say, run the football and, as we said, just insultingly bad on defense.

The Seahawks are classic teases. Before they made it to the Super Bowl two years ago, they were among the eternally over-hyped teams, said to be just on the precipice of greatness, but apparently immune from the scorn of the mainstream, national press when they failed routinely. And following a completely improbable playoff win and a respectable effort against the Bears in last season’s playoffs, Seattle convinced many that they had not only the talent and experience to make a run this year but also the proper roadmap, given the team’s crummy division.

Of these three teams, the Bucs have the best chance not only to win their division but also to make noise in the playoffs. They have an active and heady defense, a schizophrenic but icily nerved QB in Jeff Garcia, and a man who is coaching like his job is on the line in Jon Gruden. They should win the NFC South unless the Panthers suddenly catch fire.

That said, we must put into perspective the definition of good in this watered-down conference. The Bucs hung tough early against the Colts but lost Sunday. Good effort or not, they were the lesser team.

It would be a shame if no NFC team not named the Cowboys didn’t make a run. And soon.

Mr. Edholm, a senior editor at Pro Football Weekly, can be reached at eedholm@pfwmedia.com.


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