Sonics Look Like Next Team Set To Break Out

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Hoops fans all over the world that are watching the NBA Finals are probably wondering when their team will be good enough to occupy the big stage. Fans in Seattle are probably setting their clocks, confident that it will be only a couple of years until their Sonics are ready for a shot at glory.

Whether the Sonics will still be in Seattle at that time is another matter, but the Sonics took a big step toward making themselves a contender late last week when they hired Sam Presti to be their general manager. Presti, who is only 30, had spent seven years in the San Antonio Spurs front office, rising to the post of assistant GM under R.C. Buford. His scouting database has been widely imitated around the league. The last team exec to come out of the Spurs organization was Danny Ferry, who built the Cleveland Cavaliers into a finalist in two years.

While Presti won’t have the luxury of building a team around Le-Bron James, he will have a lot to work with. Seattle is nowhere near as bad as its 31–51 record last season indicated. Sonics’ leading scorer, guard Ray Allen, missed 27 games and second leading scorer, forward Rashard Lewis, missed 20. While this would damage any team’s performance, it was especially crippling to Seattle, a one-dimensional team that relies entirely on its offense. The Sonics finished 10th in Offensive Efficiency (points per 100 possessions) at 107.5, a distinct slip from the 2005-06 season when they finished third. However, their defense was consistent and horrible; they were 27th in the league in Defensive Efficiency last season and ranked 30th the year before. Six weeks ago, the entire front office and coaching staff was sent packing.

Lewis has exercised the opt-out clause in his contract and is a free agent seeking a substantial raise over the $9 million and change he made last season. However, his departure comes at just the right time for Seattle. The Sonics own the second pick in the NBA draft, which will probably bring Kevin Durant to town after a freshman season in Texas where the 6-foot-10-inch forward averaged 25.8 points, 11.1 boards, and 1.9 blocks per game. The 19-year-old Durant is a string bean, weighing only 190 pounds, so he’ll probably start at the small forward and progress to the power forward spot as he fills out.

Durant’s availability wasn’t the only attraction to the Sonics job for Presti. The team is well under the luxury tax threshold and all of its other key players, forwards Chris Wilcox and Nick Collison, guards Earl Watson and Luke Ridnour, and swingman Damien Wilkins are all signed to long-term contracts. Presti inherits a roster full of “project” big men like Johan Petro, Mouhammed Sene, and Robert Swift. The Spurs are very good at talent development so Seattle fans can hope that one if not more of these guys develop into the intimidating big man that the Sonics defense so desperately needs.

Presti’s first big move will be the hiring of a coach. Seattle’s pursuit of Presti was a by-product of its interest in San Antonio assistant coaches P.J. Carlesimo and Don Newman as candidates for their vacant position. He’s better known as Latrell Sprewell’s victim in the infamous choking incident 10 years ago, but all of Carlesimo’s teams in Golden State and Portland played strong defense. Newman’s credentials as a Spurs assistant would also bode well in this area. It seems like the last time the Spurs didn’t play good defense was when they were in the ABA and half the players had afros.

The first year goal for Seattle should be simple: maintain their offensive prowess (which will happen if Allen stays healthy and Durant lives up to about one tenth of the hype), while bringing the D up to the league average. If that happens, then Seattle will improve to something like 44-38 and should contend for a playoff berth. If the defense gets as good as the offense, then Seattle — who may be in Kansas City or Oklahoma City by year two of the Presti regime — will muscle into the Western conference elite. With their payroll flexibility, and two of the first 32 draft picks, and young bigs already in the fold, the Sonics are poised to make big strides quickly.

The other significant part of the Presti hiring is his age and background. At 30 and having never played in the NBA, Presti is part of the new generation of team executives that will be sweeping the league for the next decade or so. Vesting decision-making in ex-players to make educated guesses (if that’s not being too kind) about personnel matters is a crapshoot, and most new owners will want more certainty involving how their millions are spent. The NBA salary cap is far more pernicious than its NFL counterpart. The football cap is a hard cap, so few contracts are guaranteed; mistakes wind up on the waiver wire over the summer. In the NBA, with its soft cap and guaranteed deals, you have to live with your mistakes or live with someone else’s mistakes for long periods to come. It’s what locks the Knicks into mediocrity until the 2009-10 season.

Presti was a Rhodes scholar, and he brings experience with a championship organization to the Seattle front office, as well as praise for his knowledge of the cap and scouting ability.

In other words he’s the template for what Isiah’s successor should have on his (or her) résumé.

mjohnson@nysun.com


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