Sorting Out the Mediocrities of the NFC
This article is from the archive of The New York Sun before the launch of its new website in 2022. The Sun has neither altered nor updated such articles but will seek to correct any errors, mis-categorizations or other problems introduced during transfer.
In recent years, the final week of the NFL season has become anticlimactic, as the best teams have already clinched playoff spots and are, by the end of the year, more concerned with avoiding injuries than winning games. That will largely be the case again this year, but Sunday’s games ensured at least a few interesting contests in Week 17.
Most of the interest will come from figuring out which of the mediocre mess of NFC teams will emerge as the final wild card club. The NFC has five teams at 7–8 — the Giants, Green Bay Packers, Carolina Panthers, St. Louis Rams, and Atlanta Falcons — and one of them will make the playoffs. If all five teams lose this weekend, the NFL will have a 7–9 team in the playoffs for the first time ever.
Carolina’s 10–3 win at Atlanta on Sunday didn’t have the feel of a big game, but it had a significant impact on the NFC playoff race. It kept Carolina alive and dealt a serious blow to the Falcons’ chances, as well as to coach Jim Mora’s chances of keeping his job. Mora reached the NFC Championship game in his first year at the helm of the Falcons but has gone just 15–16 since then, and he angered team owner Arthur Blank by saying on a radio show that he’d leave his current job if offered the coaching position at his alma mater, the University of Washington. (He later said he was joking.)
The biggest reason to doubt Mora’s future is that he and his coaching staff have failed to turn quarterback Michael Vick into a first-rate passer, as demonstrated in Sunday’s game, when Vick completed just nine of 20 passes for 109 yards. Vick added four runs for 32 yards, becoming the first quarterback in NFL history to eclipse 1,000 rushing yards in a season, which is an impressive accomplishment but also a reminder that he’s the same “run-first, pass-second” quarterback he was when Mora arrived three years ago.
Carolina’s starting quarterback, Jake Delhomme, missed the game with a thumb injury and coach John Fox had so little faith in Delhomme’s replacement, Chris Weinke, that the Panthers ran a game plan that looked like something out of a 1970s Ohio State–Michigan game. Carolina called 52 runs and seven passes. That was enough, though, because after Atlanta kicked a field goal on its opening possession, the Falcons’ eight drives ended with two Vick interceptions, one Vick incompletion on a fourth down, and five punts.
Atlanta and Carolina, as well as St. Louis and Green Bay, all will pay close attention to the Giants’ Saturday night game against the Washington Redskins, as the Giants are the frontrunners among the 7–8 teams. The league office will no doubt be watching all the games closely and rooting for the scenario that ends with Green Bay on top. The NFL would much rather have a week’s worth of stories on Brett Favre in the playoffs than on the mediocre state of a league that allows .500 clubs to get to the postseason.
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In the AFC, the Indianapolis Colts showed in Sunday’s 27–24 loss to the Houston Texans that despite their great Peyton Manning-led offense, their defense is so incompetent that winning any playoff game — let alone the Super Bowl — is unlikely. Ron Dayne scored two first-quarter touchdowns to give the Texans a 14–0 lead and finished the day with 32 carries for 153 yards. Dayne, the Giants’ 2000 firstround draft pick, never ran like that with Big Blue, but he never got to face this Colts defense with Big Blue.
The Colts have lost four of six since starting the season 9–0, and the run defense has been pushed around again and again. Manning completed 21 of 27 passes for 205 yards, with three touchdowns and no interceptions, but no quarterback can lead his team to the Super Bowl if his defensive teammates can’t tackle. The Colts, who host the Miami Dolphins in Sunday’s regular season finale, would probably have to win at both Baltimore and San Diego in the playoffs to get to the Super Bowl. Baltimore running back Jamal Lewis and San Diego running back LaDainian Tomlinson would love nothing more than to see the Colts come to town.
Lewis and Ravens quarterback Steve McNair are both well past their prime, but they continue to do enough not to lose games while the Ravens’ defense wins games. In Sunday’s 31–7 victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers, Lewis managed just 77 yards on 24 carries, and McNair threw two interceptions. But Baltimore’s defense shut down Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger (15-of-31, 156 yards, one touchdown, two interceptions) and running back Willie Parker (13 carries, 29 yards, one fumble).
Unlike Indianapolis, Baltimore is peaking at the right time, and with a victory Sunday over the Buffalo Bills will clinch a first-round playoff bye. But the Ravens are still behind the San Diego Chargers, who need only to beat the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday to clinch home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. San Diego beat the Seattle Seahawks 20–17 Sunday, and as another reminder of how weak the NFC is, the Seahawks clinched the NFC West despite losing that game, their third straight loss, to fall to 8–7.
The team with the best shot at beating the Ravens or Chargers in the AFC playoffs may be the New England Patriots, who clinched the AFC East Sunday by defeating the Jacksonville Jaguars 24–21. The Patriots have won three of the last five Super Bowls and have a core group of veterans with postseason experience, and they got great games on Sunday from two rookies: tight end David Thomas, who had five catches for 83 yards and a spectacular diving touchdown, and running back Laurence Maroney, who had seven carries for 48 yards and a fourth-quarter touchdown to put the game away.
By losing to New England, Jacksonville dropped to 8–7 and is now a long shot to make the playoffs. The Jaguars visit the 8–7 Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday, and although the winner would easily earn a playoff berth in the NFC, getting a wild card spot in the AFC is significantly harder. The Denver Broncos got into prime position for one of those wild cards by beating the Cincinnati Bengals 24–23 in a crazy game in which the Bengals botched the snap on an extra point attempt that would have tied the game with less than a minute remaining.
Although the wild card race will garner most of the Week 17 attention, a race is taking place at the bottom of the standings as well. The Oakland Raiders and Detroit Lions both lost over the weekend to drop to 2–13, which their Week 17 results will determine which team will get the first overall pick in the 2007 NFL draft. Notre Dame quarterback Brady Quinn — the front-runner to be the first pick — will be watching closely — likely hoping one of these sad-sack franchises trades its draft choice to a better team.
Mr. Smith is a contributing editor for FootballOutsiders.com.