Sweden Warns Moscow May Attack Europe in ‘Near Term’ To Test NATO

Sweden is warning that Russia may carry out an attack or other provocative actions against NATO countries in the near future to test the alliance.In a report Friday, the nation’s parliamentary defense committee said Moscow could try “to test NATO’s cohesion and credibility under Article 5,” adding that it could happen in the “relatively near term” if Russia deems there are “favorable political conditions.” Article 5 obligates all members to come to the aid of an ally that is attacked.The report questions previous assessments that the Kremlin would need several years to be able to carry out a new operation after its years-long invasion of Ukraine.NATO’s supreme allied commander for Europe, General Alexus Grynkewich, said Thursday that Russia is “not looking for a conflict” and wouldn’t carry out an attack on the Baltic states because it knows it can’t beat NATO. “They won’t succeed,” the American air force general said during a panel discussion at the Berlin Air Show.The concern about NATO’s cohesion comes as the Pentagon plans to reduce its military presence in Europe. President Trump announced last month that America would withdraw 5,000 troops from Germany. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth also abruptly canceled a deployment of 4,000 members of the 2nd Armored Brigade Combat Team to Poland. Vice President Vance later announced that the deployment was only delayed and not a permanent withdrawal from Poland.Mr. Trump has called on NATO allies in Europe to take more responsibility for their own defense. He has pushed members of the alliance to increase their defense funding to meet their obligations.The United Kingdom’s defense secretary, John Healey, resigned this week, saying Prime Minister Keir Starmer was not spending enough to meet the nation’s defense needs. The government’s newly released Defense Investment Plan fell short of 3 percent of the nation’s economic spending; it needs to reach 3.5 percent by 2035 to meet its commitments. The armed forces minister, Al Cams, also resigned hours later complaining that the prime minister’s defense spending plan “isn’t enough.”Mr. Trump has repeatedly threatened to pull completely out of NATO but congressional Republicans are starting to push back on any weakening of America’s commitments. The Senate Armed Service Committee voted Thursday in favor of a new funding bill that would make it more difficult for the president to shrink the American military presence on the continent.The pending 2027 National Defense Authorization Act adds a certification requirement before any troop withdrawal or reduction in Department of Defense equipment in Europe. Congress would require the Pentagon to provide an independent risk assessment and the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff would need to coordinate a report on the analytical basis for the reduction. The Pentagon would also have to give at least 120 days notification before any troop reductions.The committee stressed that the rotational presence of two Army armored brigade combat teams in Poland provides a “critical contribution” to the deterrence and defense posture “and notes with great concern the recent decision by the Department to temporarily delay one of the rotational ABCT deployments.” The committee also said the permanent stationing of such forces would enhance deterrence and reduce the long-term costs associated with persistent rotational deployments.The bill would require an independent risk assessment of the military’s decision to temporarily delay the rotation of one of the combat teams to Poland. It also would require an assessment by October of whether the permanent stationing of one or two of the combat teams in Poland would enhance the deterrence of Russia.The committee noted that the administration’s plan to pull 5,000 troops from Germany already requires that the defense secretary submit a certification and assessment to the congressional defense committees 60 days prior to making the change.

Sweden Warns Moscow May Attack Europe in ‘Near Term’ To Test NATO

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