Syria, 2025: Honey for Turkey, but a Trap for Everybody Else?

In ancient times it was the Greeks who built the Trojan Horse — in these times, is it the turn of the Turks? When a regime like the former authoritarian one in Syria is so swiftly replaced, it is the new transitional administration itself that is already providing some clues. This is because “transitional” is now something of a subjective term — according to the new administration’s de facto leader, Ahmed al-Sharaa, also known as Abu Mohammed Al-Golani, drafting a new Syrian constitution could take up to three years* and holding elections, up to four. In the Middle East, that is a twin set of eternities. Mr. al-Golani spelled out some of his plans in a new interview with Al Arabiya. They include breaking up Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the Turkish-backed rebel group that ejected Baschar Al-Assad from his perch at Damascus. Shepherding relations with the Trump administration as well as Russia and Iran is being done in various.Despite the concerted efforts of the former HTS leader to present a modern face to reassure the international community as well as the Syrians themselves, some things are done without being said and others are said without being done.In the latter category are his stated intention of integrating the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces into the national armed forces. In the background is the shadow of Syria’s neighbor to the north: Turkey.For the time being, Mr. Al-Golani seems to be closely guided by his patron, President Erdogan. Whether talk in 2024 of establishing an inclusive, unifying, and representative government — that’s what Washington seems to want — will translate into action in 2025 remains to be seen.Reconstruction efforts will likely get under way much sooner than the four years it will apparently take before Syrian citizens can cast votes in a national election. The widely televised images of Syrians celebrating the fall of Assad late last year can be deceiving. While the overwhelming majority of Syrians welcomed the tyrant’s eviction, the rebel group that made it happen and seized the Presidential Palace does not have what could be called a popular base. It is arguably a minority group in the Syrian political scene.Mr al-Golani’s hastily appointed cabinet includes mostly members from the HTS. Efforts at reconciliation with other figures of the Syrian opposition or towards representatives of religious and ethnic minorities have so far been vague.The head of the internationally recognized Syrian opposition, Hadi al-Bahra, complained in his own interview with Al Arabiya that he has not been invited to participate in the “national dialogue” that Mr. al-Golani’s interim administration has announced.If Messrs. Erdogan and Al-Golani simply want to legitimize the de facto power at Damascus, to the quiet exclusion of others, there will be security implications down the road for Greece and Israel as well as America.What matters most in the Syrian capital right now is military muscle, and the ones flexing it are Turkey and the soon to be dissolved HTS. Judging by Mr. al-Golani’s own stated timelines, he is not in any particular hurry for plurality. Rather, he seems to be betting on giving his temporary administration the longest shelf life possible. A similar situation prevails in Libya, where the so-called “government of national accord” was endorsed by the UN in 2015.It doesn’t have the backing of the parliament, though, and has not exactly facilitated free and fair elections either. In December the UN’s top official in Libya announced an initiative to overcome a three-year deadlock and move the divided oil-rich North African nation toward a national election.In the current Libyan power vacuum there is Turkey, which in 2019 signed a memorandum of understanding with the interim Libyan government demarcating maritime zones in the region — a move repudiated by Greece and Egypt. According to some reports, Turkey has also sent Libya weapons. This pattern seems to be repeating in Syria, and Mr. Erdogan is widely seen by other regional powers as gearing up for another round of high-stakes international energy poker.The faster the “transitional” administration settles in, the more the so-called international community — including the United Nations, the European Union, and the Arab world — are likely to to recognize it as the legitimate and possibly long-term government of Syria. That would be great news for Ankara, which has both expanding commercial interests in Syria and broader geostrategic interests. Starting with reconstruction work,Turkey will soon be better poised than most to tap into Syria’s wealth-producing resources.If the Libyan “model” is any guide, Ankara will also likely be invited to have some kind of military presence in the country. For now, the old HTS has become the de facto government army. Syria’s ministry of defense is now helmed by the HTS deputy leader, Abu Hassan. Mr. al-Golani, for his part, is said to be already leveraging support from Mr. Erdogan to lift the existing economic sanctions on Syria. Complicating matters further is the Kurdish question. The Kurds are not likely to lay down their arms when Mr. Erdogan is still threatening them. Turkey already has some forces amassed on its side of the Syrian border, and the new year is just getting started.________* America began its constitutional convention on May 25, 1787, at Philadelphia. The parchment was signed on September 17, 1787. The last of the original 13 states to ratify it, Rhode Island, did so on May 29, 1790.Correction: 1787 was the year the American Constitution was signed. An earlier version misstated the year.

Syria, 2025: Honey for Turkey, but a Trap for Everybody Else?

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