The Decider: Israel, Not America, Is Now Determining Mideast Policy

Israel’s recent actions in dismembering Hezbollah, destroying Houthi facilities and maintaining its military presence in Gaza are now influencing the future of the Middle East far more than American actions, policies or statements. America has largely abdicated its role in the Middle East, becoming primarily a naysayer rather than a positive force. Despite its growing military and naval presence in the area, America is playing a passive role. It is determined to see that the war does not spread beyond Lebanon, Gaza, and Yemen, but it is Israel that is deterring Iran from entering the fray beyond merely enabling its proxies.Had Israel complied with President Biden’s demand for an immediate 21-day cease-fire in Lebanon, Hassan Nasrallah would still be alive and planning more cross-border attacks. Although it is likely that Iran will insist that Hezbollah respond to Israel’s recent attacks — including the pager explosions — Hezbollah’s capacity to wage an all-out war against Israel has been considerably compromised. The recent air attack against the Houthis will likely deter them from any major escalation. Hamas is bogged down, with most of its battalions destroyed and its remaining leader hiding in tunnels using Israeli hostages as human shields.Iran did respond to the killing of Nasrallah by firing nearly 200 ballistic missiles at Israeli targets. Biden has urged Israel to respond “proportionately,” but proportionate responses only assure a tit-for-tat continuation of attacks.Israel finally regained its deterrence by demonstrating that it can reach and respond to enemies anywhere and anytime. Following its inexplicable failures on October 7, the IDF and Israel’s intelligence services have dramatically increased their ability to inflict costs on those who attack Israel.It is likely that Iran will now instruct its surrogates, particularly Hezbollah to seek soft Jewish targets outside of the Middle East, especially in Europe, where sympathy for Israel is at a low point. Hezbollah will probably target synagogues, schools, and other vulnerable civilian institutions in a cowardly attempt to show that it is not without a capacity to inflict harm on innocent people. Israel could send a powerful message to Iran and Hezbollah that any terrorist attack on Jewish institutions will be deemed an attack on Israel by Iran and its surrogates, and that Israel will respond accordingly.There are reports that Iran’s leaders have now taken shelter in anticipation of an attack by Israel against them personally. They can run and even hide, but in the end they know Israel has the capacity to find them.Recent events have shown that Prime Minister Netanyahu has been correct all along in his determination to defeat Israel’s enemies militarily rather than by accepting questionable diplomatic “solutions” — such as UN resolutions that require Hezbollah to stay behind the Litani river. These resolutions are parchment preachments that can never be counted on to achieve lasting peace.The American policy of appeasement has been a dismal failure. Iran, which was on the verge of bankruptcy under the trump administration, is now rich with sanction-relief and oil profits. Iran will never fully comply with any treaty resolution or commitment. It cannot be influenced by morality or logic. It can only be deterred. And it can only be deterred by the threat of military action against its leaders, its nuclear facilities or its economic resources.Israel knows that if Vice President Harris is elected, Mr. Biden’s admonitions and veiled threats may well be turned into the actual withholding of armaments and ammunition, as President Macron has already proposed. That is probably why Israel is taking decisive action now that will permanently change the realities on the ground. They are sending troops into southern Lebanon to do what the UN and America failed to do: move Hezbollah fighters and rockets beyond the Litani river so that Israeli residents of the north can return home.In the end, Israel has a far greater stake in what happens in the Mideast than does America. It should be able to determine its own destiny without their most important ally, America, always saying “no,” or “don’t,” “cease-fire,” or “proportional.” Israel’s existential reality explains why Mr. Netanyahu did not seek permission to kill Nasrallah or explode the pagers. That reality also explains why Israel is now defying Mr. Biden’s request for an immediate cease-fire and is instead sending soldiers to move Hezbollah back from the Lebanon border with Israel. And that explains why it is Israel rather than America that is driving events in the entire Mideast.

The Decider: Israel, Not America, Is Now Determining Mideast Policy

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