The Fed’s Scrip Tease

Here’s a hat tip to monetary economist Judy Shelton, who, in these columns eight months ago, noted that futures pricing data suggested there was a 99 percent chance that the Fed would lower the federal funds rate by September. That would be the last meeting of the Open Market Committee before election day — just in time to give an election eve boost to the Democrats, who gave Americans the inflation that is still 50 percent above the Fed’s own target.The Fed, of course, was playing coy — call it a scrip tease. Scrip meaning the irredeemable electronic paper ticket money that, by government fiat, is the medium of exchange in our economy. The Fed alone employs hundreds of economists to figure out what the scrip is signaling. Which is what one has to do if one fails to feature the fact that Federal Reserve notes have lost more than 98 percent of their value in gold, just since the end of Bretton Woods in 1971.That’s when President Nixon severed the dollar’s historic link with gold. Before that, the dollar had a fixed value under law in terms of gold — a 35th of an ounce. Since then the fiat dollar’s gold value has plummeted. In today’s trading it trades for less than a 2,400th of an ounce. The gold standard had imposed a discipline on both the Fed, limiting its monetary manipulations, and the government, limiting its ability to spend and borrow to excess.The result has been a national debt that just soared above $35 trillion and shows no sign of falling any time soon. As for the Fed, in recent years it has held interest rates to artificially low levels in an effort to stimulate the economy, prompting an asset bubble, while racking up more than $7 trillion, at last count, on its balance sheet under its Quantitative Easing scheme. Such is the monetary muddle America faces as the November election nears.In the race for the White House, the likely Democratic candidate, Vice President Harris, is neck and neck with President Trump and all eyes are on the economy, especially with the Fed meeting this week. Central bank watchers will parse the Fed’s statement Wednesday for a glimpse of the economic auspices. For months, voices on the left have pushed the Fed to cut interest rates, despite its failure to get inflation below its own 2 percent target.Back in January, Paul Krugman insisted “the war on inflation is more or less over, and we won.” At that point the Consumer Price Index was up by 3.1 percent over the prior year. That hardly constitutes victory over inflation, especially considering that under the gold standard in its heyday annual inflation was held to an average of but 0.1 percent a year. June’s inflation reading came in at 3 percent. That hardly suggests the need to rush on cutting rates.The Fed has held back despite the rising calls to cut. This could reflect caution, as Ms. Shelton noted when she raised this issue, to preserve “the presumption of independence” between the Fed and “the economic agenda of the White House.” She conceded it might be “crude to ask,” but wondered when will “the grumbling begin” that the Fed “could end up choreographing an economic boost that serves to help the incumbent presidential candidate.”After all, she noted, it wouldn’t be a first for a Fed chairman to be “suspected, rightly or wrongly, of using monetary stimulus to swing an election.” She points to Arthur Burns, who “allegedly sought to juice economic performance under pressure from the Nixon administration.” Such policies — along with closing the Gold Window — fostered the stagflation of the 1970s, which was vanquished by President Reagan and Paul Volcker.Which brings us back to the Trump-Harris race. While the Fed seems to be itching for a rate cut that could help grease the skids for Ms. Harris’ candidacy, Trump urges delay at least until November. Political calculations aside, there is wisdom in seeing that inflation falls below the Fed’s target before the central bank acts. Failure to do so risks a resurgence of the inflation President Biden unleashed, which could hobble the presidency of whoever takes office in 2025.

The Fed’s Scrip Tease

More from the New York Sun

Can America End Tehran’s Nuclear Aspirations Without Boots on the Ground?

CBS News Reporter Who Denounced MAGA ‘Lies’ About 2020 Election Quits Over Network’s Balanced January 6 Coverage: Report

Democrats To Introduce Legislation Explicitly Banning Prediction Markets Related to War and Death

More from the New York Sun

Can America End Tehran’s Nuclear Aspirations Without Boots on the Ground?

CBS News Reporter Who Denounced MAGA ‘Lies’ About 2020 Election Quits Over Network’s Balanced January 6 Coverage: Report

Democrats To Introduce Legislation Explicitly Banning Prediction Markets Related to War and Death

‘CNN Is Not a Serious Organization’: Embattled Network Denounced for Sympathetic Coverage of ISIS Terror Suspects

‘Say Nothing’: Gerry Adams, Alleged IRA Commander, Dons Bulletproof Vest, Denies Ordering Bombings That Shook Britain

Apple News Makes Tiny Increase in Conservative Publications Featured on Top Stories List After Pressure from Trump Administration

American Missiles Pulled From South Korea To Buttress Campaign Against Iran

Extracting Enchantment From the Austen and Brontë Production Industries