The Fed’s Scrip Tease

It was eight months ago that economist Judy Shelton noted that futures pricing data suggested there was a 99 percent probability that by a month before election day the Fed would lower the federal funds rate.

AP/J. Scott Applewhite, file
The Federal Reserve at Washington in 2020. AP/J. Scott Applewhite, file

Here’s a hat tip to monetary economist Judy Shelton, who, in these columns eight months ago, noted that futures pricing data suggested there was a 99 percent chance that the Fed would lower the federal funds rate by September. That would be the last meeting of the Open Market Committee before election day — just in time to give an election eve boost to the Democrats, who gave Americans the inflation that is still 50 percent above the Fed’s own target.

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