The Iran Diplomacy

It’s difficult to see the logic behind President Trump’s ceasefire extension in the hopes of reviving the Islamabad negotiations with representatives of the Iranian regime. Even diplomats at a lower rank than Vice President Vance will waste their time and harm America’s cause if they search for a compromise with a wounded regime. Also, too, if Iranian diplomats eventually sign anything — a big if — it would be written on ice. As of this writing an American negotiating team — Mr. Vance, special envoy Steve Witkoff, Mr. Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner — has yet to board a flight to Islamabad. Tehran is sending conflicting messages as to whether diplomats, including Iran’s parliament speaker, Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, plan to go. The regime is reportedly demanding the removal of America’s blockade of Iranian ships as a price for launching negotiations. The Iranians are playing these games because they want America to believe Tehran holds all the cards. If ever there was an opportunity to call a bluff, this is it. A two-week ceasefire will expire on Wednesday. By announcing an early end to the lull in military activities, America could either lure the Iranians back to the table with no preconditions, or not. Yet Mr. Trump is acting as if the talks are on, even requesting an initial Iranian goodwill gesture. “To the Iranian leaders, who will soon be in negotiations with my representatives: I would greatly appreciate the release of these women,” Mr. Trump wrote on X Tuesday. He reacted to a post showing eight Iranian dissidents, including teenagers, that the regime is about to hang. “Please do them no harm! Would be a great start to our negotiations,” the president writes. That is while Tehran accelerates a killing spree of its domestic foes. Mr. Trump might be planning an early surprise attack while pretending the Islamabad talks are on. If that isn’t the case, though, he seems to violate every rule in his own book, “The Art of the Deal.” To an outsider it seems that America is eager for a pact, while Iran is biding its time until our president makes more concessions. The mullahs are reportedly internally divided. Yet are they, or are the regime’s squabbles part of a negotiating tactic? Last week Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi declared the Hormuz Strait open for all. Shortly afterward the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps denounced the foreign minister and shut down the strait again. A bona fide disagreement, or a ploy meant to squeeze more American concessions? Either way, the time gained allowed the regime to rearm and import recruits, including from Iraq’s Shia militias, to hunt anti-regime activists on Iranian streets. Extending the ceasefire while hoping for a diplomatic breakthrough amounts to a gift to the mullahs. America demands an end to enrichment and all paths to a nuclear bomb, limitations on Iran’s missile program, and an end to Tehran’s support for Mideast proxies. Yet who can guarantee that the IRGC won’t again veto any agreement reached? Of all the options America has resorted to, it seems to us, its diplomacy is the least likely to succeed.

The Iran Diplomacy

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