The Mideast Awaits Trump’s Return
Could Trump’s unpredictability turn out to be a strength?
President-Elect Trump’s approach to world affairs was marked in a recent interview with the Wall Street Journal when the editorial page editor, Paul Gigot, asked if he would use force if the Communist Party chairman, Xi Jinping, decided to blockade Taiwan. “I wouldn’t have to, because he respects me and he knows I’m f—ing crazy,” Trump shot back. He has long banked on his unpredictability to scare opponents, which has served him well.
That notion is apparently behind the boast, made on the hustings, that as commander in chief, Trump would quickly end wars in the Mideast and Europe. Detractors say he would betray Ukraine and sell out to President Putin. Yet, following a Wednesday “excellent” phone conversation, President Zelensky said he was impressed with Trump’s idea of “peace through strength.” It’s a concept often ascribed to President Reagan.
For weeks Trump has bragged that no major wars erupted in his first term, while following President Biden’s Afghanistan debacle, Russia invaded Ukraine and the Mideast burst into flames. As president, he will need to deal with these two wars, and perhaps a third in the Pacific. President Biden’s insistence on de-escalation everywhere has prompted Beijing, Moscow, Tehran, and Pyongyang to coalesce and bridge their disagreements.
The only glue that keeps this emerging powerful bloc together is a desire to undo America’s world leadership. Trump’s detractors often criticize his penchant for egotism: He befriends whoever likes him and battles those who cross him. Yet, despite talk of his friendship with Messrs. Putin, Xi, and Kim, the president-elect increasingly seems to see America as he sees himself: If you like America, you’re a good guy. Hate us at your own risk.
“Unlike liberal Kamala, I will support Israel’s right to win its war on terror, you have to support that, got to win, got to finish it off,” Mr. Trump said after winning the election. To some, it sounded at odds with his admonition that the Gaza and Lebanon wars must end before inauguration. Yet it depends on how one defines “win.” in contrast to Vice President Harris’s emphasis on ceasefires, Mr. Trump seems to push Israel to end the wars victoriously.
Surrounded by aides who represent opposing Republican traditions, Trump will have to navigate them. Vice President-elect Vance is widely seen as an isolationist, while Secretary Pompeo, who remains in the president’s inner circle, is a hawk. As the Washington rumor mill is abuzz about names in the next national security team, we are encouraged that former Iran adviser Brian Hook will lead the transition in the Department of State.
Tehran has threatened to kill Mr. Hook, as well as Mr. Pompeo, Trump, and other officials responsible for the “maximum pressure” Iran policy. The mullahs are still seething over the killing of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps chief, Qassem Soleimani. Mr. Trump doesn’t take well to attempts to kill him, so he has extra incentive to revive the economic pressure that was relaxed so blatantly under Mr. Biden. Yet, is there more?
“Hit the Iranian nuclear first and worry about the rest later,” candidate Trump said after Mr. Biden warned Israel against attacking Iranian oil and nuclear sites. Trump’s sometimes fraught relations with Prime Minister Netanyahu have improved, as the two reportedly spoke via telephone several times in recent months. Trump also renewed ties to Riyadh’s crown prince, Mohammed Bin Salman, which raises hopes for a Saudi-Israeli peace.
Meantime, our Benny Avni reports that President biden might use his remaining days in office to get back at Mr. Netanyahu for ignoring his “don’t” admonitions. He might use the United Nations for that purpose, the pro-Israel camp worries. “Now we have 74 days to finish the term,” Mr. Biden said today. “Let’s make every day count.” Mr. Trump is less fond of large global institutions. For him, America is, well, first.