The Trump Team’s Dilemma: How To Handle Venezuela’s Dictator Maduro

As dictator Nicolás Maduro consolidates power in Venezuela, the incoming Trump administration faces a critical test: balancing a hardline stance with pragmatic diplomacy amid a crisis threatening regional stability, global oil markets, and millions of lives.“Maduro’s regime has no intention of negotiating or ceding power. They are well aware that any meaningful transition would expose them to international prosecution for crimes against humanity, drug trafficking, money laundering, and the financing of terrorism,” former Venezuelan intelligence official and President of the Global Organization for Security and Intelligence, Johan Obdola, tells The New York Sun. “The Trump administration faces an uphill battle. Dismantling this regime will require strategic sanctions and diplomatic pressure, a recalibration of alliances, stronger partnerships with regional players, and unwavering resolve to confront one of the most entrenched criminal states of our time.”A Fraudulent ElectionOn January 10, Nicolás Maduro was sworn in for his third term despite widespread allegations of electoral fraud. The United States and numerous other countries have declared the election results illegitimate, instead recognizing opposition leader Edmundo González Urrutia as the rightful president-elect. Unlike previous elections, Maduro officials failed to provide detailed vote counts. The opposition, however, released tally sheets from over 80 percent of the country’s electronic voting machines, which indicate Mr. González won with twice as many votes as Mr. Maduro. Independent observers, including the Carter Center, authenticated these documents.The fraudulent election triggered street protests that have devolved into violent clashes with security forces, resulting in 28 deaths, over 200 injuries, and more than 2,400 arrests. Maduro, who was handpicked by Hugo Chávez in 2013, has overseen Venezuela’s descent into economic collapse and has been widely condemned for cracking down on dissent while clinging to power. Opposition on the RunVenezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado, who is widely considered the face of the anti-Maduro movement, was briefly detained Thursday following an anti-government march in Caracas, during which she was forced to film several videos, marking her first public appearance in months ahead of President Nicolás Maduro’s inauguration.Venezuelan authorities have also issued a $100,000 reward for information leading to the capture of Mr. González, who fled to Spain in September following the election. Mr. González has called on the Venezuelan military to recognize him as their commander-in-chief and oust Maduro. His appeals have been met with mixed reactions, as the military—a key pillar of Maduro’s regime—has shown no signs of turning against the president.While the impact of such rallying cries is uncertain, it is clear that dealing with Mr. Maduro for another term presents steep foreign policy changes for the president-elect. The Trump Administration’s DilemmaMr. Trump’s first term was defined by a “maximum pressure” campaign against Mr. Maduro, imposing sanctions, cyber-attacks, and even a $15 million bounty for the leader’s capture as an alleged perpetrator of narcoterrorism. These efforts failed to unseat Mr. Maduro, whose regime found alternative allies in Russia, China, and Iran. The challenge now is to craft a more effective strategy without alienating key players or exacerbating the humanitarian crisis.While some Republicans, including Senator Marco Rubio and Mr. Trump’s nominee for the Secretary of State, advocate for reinstating full sanctions, others argue that heavy-handed measures could push Venezuela closer to adversaries. Oil industry executives have also cautioned against renewed sanctions, warning they could disrupt U.S. energy markets and raise gas prices — something Mr. Trump does not want to happen under his watch. Concessions to Caracas, however, are unlikely. “With two Latin Americanists most likely running the Department of State, with Marco Rubio and Christopher Landau, and a forthright Special Envoy for the region, you can expect a more direct, hardened and pragmatic diplomacy,” Regional Director for Latin America and the Caribbean at The International Foundation for Electoral Systems, Maximo Zaldivar, tells the Sun. This expected shift in U.S. strategy reflects a growing consensus among experts that a tougher, more targeted approach is essential to countering Maduro’s regime.“The best way for President-elect Trump to help democratic forces in Venezuela is to use maximum sanctions and containment to weaken Maduro economically, make it harder for him to earn revenues from smuggling illegal drugs and gold out of the country and by taxing remittances and commerce,” Research professor of Latin American Studies at the U.S. Army War College Strategic Studies Institute, Evan Ellis, tells the Sun.Many contend the existing approach doesn’t go far enough. “While the sanctions imposed are a necessary and strategic move to limit its capacity, they are not sufficient,” Mr. Obdola said. “Maduro’s international allies—chief among them Iran, Russia, and China—continue to provide him with resources and diplomatic cover, allowing the regime to maneuver and withstand the economic and political pressure.”Venezuela’s economic collapse, meanwhile, has driven over 8 million citizens to flee, creating one of the world’s largest migration crises. Most migrants have settled in neighboring countries, however, a significant number have journeyed north to the United States. The Biden administration had temporarily eased restrictions, granting humanitarian parole to thousands of Venezuelans. Adding complexity is Mr. Trump’s promise to deport undocumented migrants en masse, including many Venezuelans who fled Maduro’s regime. To facilitate deportations, the administration could seek a deal with Maduro to accept returnees, a move that could undermine broader efforts to delegitimize his government.Maduro’s Calculated MovesDespite their past grievances, Mr. Maduro has sought to curry favor with Trump since his reelection, offering public congratulations and calling for a “new start” in bilateral relations. This is a marked shift from his earlier rhetoric, which included labeling Mr. Trump a “vulgar, racist cowboy.” Mr. Maduro’s overtures suggest he is aware of the growing pressure on his regime and may be open to limited concessions to ease sanctions or secure international legitimacy.The Path ForwardWith Mr. Trump just days away from taking the helm, his administration faces difficult choices. Supporting González and the opposition requires a delicate mix of pressure and diplomacy. A new wave of sanctions could weaken Maduro’s grip but risks worsening the humanitarian crisis. Severe food insecurity affects a majority of the population while the public health system teeters on the brink of collapse. Diplomat in Residence at the National Defense University and the former Secretary of Multidimensional Security at the Organization of American States, Adam Blackwell, tells the Sun that the “Maduro regime is riding the tiger, and it will be tough for them to get off without back-channel diplomacy offering some form of escape.”“The challenge is balancing continued pressure on Maduro without further isolating the population, as sanctions often have unintended humanitarian consequences,” he continued. “The current U.S. sanctions will have much of an impact on the regime but will lead to more suffering for the Venezuelan people. Sanctions will only be effective if a broad coalition of nations is willing to enforce them. Currently, there are outliers like Russia, China and Iran that support Maduro.”Conversely, engaging with Maduro to achieve limited goals, such as deportation agreements or humanitarian access, could undermine efforts to delegitimize his regime.“The point shouldn’t be to try to bring Maduro to the negotiation table. Efforts during the Biden Administration show that Maduro too easily uses negotiations to his advantage and can’t be trusted to honor any agreement he is forced into,” Mr. Ellis surmised.Resolving Venezuela’s crisis will require international coordination, robust support for democratic institutions, and a commitment to alleviating the suffering of its people. For now, Trump’s approach remains uncertain, but the stakes for Venezuela and U.S. foreign policy could not be higher.“With so many regional governments taking distance from the Maduro regime lately, there is space for someone to take the lead, and the US can play that role; I don’t see why not; we have seen the US take the initiative in the past on Venezuela,” Mr. Zaldivar said.

The Trump Team’s Dilemma: How To Handle Venezuela’s Dictator Maduro

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