Times-Siena Poll Gives Democrats 11-Point Lead in Generic House Ballot in Final Midterm Survey

Democrats have an 11-point lead over the Republicans in the generic congressional ballot, according to the gold-standard New York Times-Siena poll, which would mark the largest nationwide popular vote win for a party since 2008. Democrats must only flip a net of three seats in order to take control of the House.At the beginning of President Trump’s second term, many Democrats believed that it would not be exceptionally difficult to take the House in 2026, given the miniscule size of Speaker Mike Johnson’s majority. With Mr. Trump’s approval on management of the economy and his low approval rating on the issues of inflation and the cost of living, Republicans now appear to be staring down a defeat not seen since the 2006 midterm elections, when Democrats took both the House and the Senate.According to the poll released Wednesday, Democrats lead Republicans, 52 percent to 41 percent, in the generic House ballot, with less than one percent saying they will vote for a third party candidate and six percent saying they are unsure how they will vote. One of the main drivers of Republicans’ chances of defeat in November is Mr. Trump’s own approval rating, which has fallen to 34 percent in the Times-Siena poll. That is the worst pres-midterm approval rating for a commander-in-chief since President Truman in 1946, when his approval rating sat at 33 percent. Mr. Trump’s approval is also far worse than that of other presidents who lost ground during other midterm elections. During the historic Republican waves of 1994 and 2010, President Clinton’s and President Obama’s approval ratings both sat at 46 percent. At the same point in 2022, when his party lost control of the House, President Biden’s approval rating was at 41 percent. In 2018, when Mr. Trump’s party lost dozens of House seats and control of the chamber, his approval rating was much higher than it is today, at 42 percent. Even in 2006, when Democrats swept the House and Senate in what is broadly remembered as a historic rebuke of Republicans, President George W. Bush’s approval rating sat at 37 percent. The Times’ chief polling analyst, Nate Cohn, cautions in his write-up of the poll that there is reason to be skeptical of a “blue tsunami” next month. “To win by such a wide margin, Democrats need modest but meaningful support from Republican-leaning voters who haven’t usually been up for grabs during the Trump era, or they need Republicans to stay home. Either way, the G.O.P. could avert a worst-case scenario by winning back some normally reliable Republican voters over the final two weeks,” Mr. Cohn wrote. He warned the GOP, however, that the Times–Siena “poll offers no reason to think that Republicans have stopped the bleeding, let alone made progress toward winning back their usual supporters.”The most important issue for voters by far is the economy, with 23 percent of respondents saying it is their top concern, while the second most important issue — immigration — clocks in at only 10 percent. Voters are especially pessimistic about the state of the economy, according to the poll. Just 24 percent of voters say the economy is “excellent” or “good,” compared to 75 percent of voters who rate the economy as “fair” or “poor.”Mr. Trump’s own personal approval rating on economic management is also low, unlike his last midterm election in 2018. Only 35 percent of voters approve of how he has handled the economy while 64 percent disapprove.

Times-Siena Poll Gives Democrats 11-Point Lead in Generic House Ballot in Final Midterm Survey

Times-Siena Poll Gives Democrats 11-Point Lead in Generic House Ballot in Final Midterm Survey

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