Trio of Polls in Key States Give Harris Slight Edge, but More Accurate Private Polls Reportedly Tell a Different Story

Vice President Harris has some reason to feel better about the so-called Blue Wall states in the closing days of the 2024 election from public polling. However, private polls– commissioned at great expense by the campaigns and kept confidential–are reportedly not showing new momentum for the vice president. Private polls are believed by the statistics community to be more accurate.On Friday, Marist released public polls of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, which showed Ms. Harris statistically tied with President Trump. In Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, Trump trails by two percentage points. And in Michigan, he trails 51-48 percent. In all three of the polls, the margin of error was around 3.5 percent.Polls have consistently found that Ms. Harris and Trump are running neck-and-neck in states that will likely determine the election results.However, the latest Marist polls include some worrisome signs for the 45th president. The surveys found that more voters said they had already voted for Ms. Harris than Trump in all three states.She has a nearly 20 percentage point advantage in Pennsylvania among voters who say they already cast their ballot. Trump leads among likely voters who say they have yet to cast their vote but by a smaller margin of 10 percentage points. Ms. Harris also leads among voters who have already cast their ballot in Michigan and Wisconsin, while Trump holds a smaller advantage among those who say they have yet to vote.Democrats always do better in early voting than Republicans, and this was especially the case in 2020 when Trump told voters not to vote early. This year, however, data indicates that more Republicans are voting early, narrowing Ms. Harris’ advantage.In the public polling, Trump’s margin of support among white voters has also shrunk from 2020 in all three states. In Michigan, he leads Ms. Harris 51-48 percent. Four years ago, Trump had an 11-point margin over President Biden, 55-44 percent.Ms. Harris holds double-digit leads among non-white voters in the three states. However, her lead is smaller than that of Mr. Biden four years ago. In Michigan, she leads Trump 75-25 percent. In 2020, Mr. Biden won 92 percent of non-white voters in the state. The polls also found that Ms. Harris had an edge among independent voters in the three states.Voters in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin listed inflation, preserving democracy, and immigration as the issues that were at the top of their minds while considering their votes. In Michigan, voters listed inflation, preserving democracy, abortion, and immigration as their top issues.In the three states, voters give Trump an edge on which candidate they think would handle inflation and immigration better. Ms. Harris has an advantage on the issue of preserving democracy and abortion. The Marist polls come as Republicans and conservatives have been fretting about the disparity in the turnout among men and women voters.Data from TargetEarly shows women, who tend to favor Democratic candidates, have made up a larger share of the electorate in recent elections. Politico reports that women in Pennsylvania are leading male voters by 13 points in early and mail-in voter turnout. The latest Marist poll shows that Harris has the lead among women holders in all three states. While the Marist polls may seem bleak for Trump, internal polls reportedly do not show a shift in the momentum of the race. Although private polls are not released for the general public to see, they are generally considered higher quality as they are intended to give campaigns key insights about a race to make important decisions or understand how the race is going. While no poll or interpretation of polling data is perfect, private polls are less likely to portray a race in a rosier light than it really is. Journalist Mark Halperin has been reporting on internal polling data he has seen from both Republicans and Democrats. According to him, private polls have shown that the momentum was shifting toward Trump throughout October. In a segment of his “2WAY” program earlier this week, he said, “Some of the private polling” from Democrats shows Ms. Harris is “behind or even” in the seven battleground states but not leading.On Friday morning, Mr. Halperin posted on X, “There is now a ‘widespread’ ‘belief’ among lobbyists etc that Trump has ‘stalled.’ No idea what has caused this belief exactly.”And in an episode of his “2 Way” posted on Friday, he said the polling data shows there is “no real change” in the state of the race. Additionally, he said that “independent analysts” who are “experienced in politics” believe that the odds that Trump will win are “very high.”RealClearPolitics’ average of polls shows Trump has a 1.1-point lead across the seven most competitive battleground states.

Trio of Polls in Key States Give Harris Slight Edge, but More Accurate Private Polls Reportedly Tell a Different Story

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