Trump Might Soon Face a Crisis in Georgia, Where the Former Soviet Republic Is in an Incipient Revolt Against Russia

President-elect Trump may soon face a crisis in Georgia. No, not that Georgia. In the former Soviet republic on the Black Sea, a pro-America, pro-Europe revolt is spreading fast, pitting angry protesters against a pro-Russia government. In growing demonstrations since Friday, protesters have besieged Parliament, stoned ruling party offices, and fought riot police with fireworks and Molotov cocktails. At last count, 50 people were hospitalized and at least 200 arrested.As the government stood fast, Russian President Putin praised its leaders’ “courage and character.” However, with Russia now on the back foot in Syria and continuing to hemorrhage men and materiel in Ukraine, it is not clear how Moscow will move in Georgia. At issue is the Georgian government’s decision last week to “pause” for four years its accession talks with the European Union and to stop receiving aid grants from European nations. Joining the EU is enshrined in Georgia’s constitution. For the past decade, EU flags have flown alongside Georgian flags in front of government offices. The goal of joining Europe regularly receives the support of 80 percent of people polled in this overwhelmingly Christian country of 3.7 million.Two decades ago, Georgia’s pro-Western path was made clear by President Saakashvili. This English-speaking, Columbia-trained lawyer with a libertarian streak was the darling of American conservatives. Today, ‘Misha’ is in jail in Georgia, serving a sentence for abuse of power. His nemesis, Bidzina Ivanishvili, now controls Georgia’s ruling party, Georgian Dream.Mr. Ivanishvili, Georgia’s richest man, made his fortune in Russia. Earlier this year, he started to push pro-Russia legislation, arguing that if Georgia antagonized its northern neighbor it could end up like Ukraine. This argument helped Georgian Dream to win the most votes in parliamentary elections on October 27.However, over the last month, more and more credence went to opposition arguments that the government won 54 percent of the votes through intimidation, ballot box stuffing, and Russian money. Last week, the European Parliament adopted a resolution criticizing the voting as neither free nor fair. It withheld recognition of the results.Since then, protests have snowballed. On Saturday, an effigy of Mr. Ivanishvili was burned in front of the legislature. On Sunday, protests spread beyond the capital to eight regional cities. Protesters blocked the main road to Poti, Georgia’s main Black Sea port. At last count, 200 Georgian diplomats signed a letter of protest. At least five resigned, including Georgia’s ambassador to America, David Zalkaliani.Yesterday, to protesters’ applause, firemen outside Georgia’s Soviet-era Parliament building emptied their water tanks on the street rather than allow riot police to use the water to refill their water cannons. For now, the government is holding fast. Asked if new elections will be held, Irakli Kobakhidze, Georgia’s Beatle-haired prime minister, snapped to reporters: “Of course not.’To many observers, though, Tbilisi’s barricades and swarms of protesters wearing gas masks and construction helmets are reminiscent of Kyiv’s Maidan protest of the winter of 2013 to 2014. That uprising was set off by President Yanukovych’s decision to renege on an election promise to join the EU. Street protests forced him to flee Ukraine for the safety of Moscow. Georgia’s prime minister vowed Saturday: “There will be no Maidan in Georgia.”In a sign of a potential escalation, though, the commanders of 1,500 Georgian volunteer soldiers fighting in Ukraine met yesterday. They issued a joint statement saying they “are ready to protect the population of Georgia in any way.” One year ago, Georgia’s State Security Service accused the largest group, the Georgian Legion, of plotting with Ukrainian intelligence to stage a coup d’état against Georgian Dream to spring Mr. Saakashvili from jail. That time, the Legion denied the charge. This time, they said they “await a signal from President Salome Zourabichvili.” An opposition leader, Georgia’s President said Saturday that she will not step down at the end of her term, on December 29. She denounced as illegitimate the Parliament that is to choose her successor on December 14. Speaking later to the Associated Press, she said Georgian Dream controls all major institutions in her country and that Georgia is becoming a “quasi-Russian” state. In solidarity, the EU’s new foreign policy chief, Kaja Kallas, posted from Kyiv yesterday, her first day on the job: “We stand with the Georgian people and their choice for a European future.”Unlike in Latin America, military coups have been rare in the post-Soviet space. Yet Georgia’s rulers undoubtedly are keeping close tabs on Georgia’s 37,000-man Defence Forces. Trained and equipped by America and other NATO nations for the last 30 years, Georgian army officers have long assumed their career futures are tied to the North Atlantic Treaty.Gluing themselves to NATO, Georgian soldiers have served in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Kosovo. A decade ago, with 1,570 soldiers in Helmand Province, Georgia was the largest non-Nato contributor to the Afghanistan mission. In 2008, Georgia lost a disastrous 16-day war with Russia. Today, Georgian soldiers see Russia as their enemy. A total of 10,000 Russian soldiers are stationed in two Georgian separatist areas, controlled by Moscow, Abkhazia and South Ossetia. In this environment, pro-Western protesters last night shouted their worst epithets at riot police: “Slaves” and “Russians.”From Moscow, former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev takes a pessimistic view of the latest unrest in a former Russian colony. Aware that Mr. Saakashvili used a street revolution to dislodge a pro-Moscow president in 2003, he wrote yesterday on Telegram: “All the prerequisites are present for once again plunging Georgia into the abyss of civil conflicts.”Now deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council, Mr. Medvedev wrote, with a hint of menace: “The neighbors are rapidly moving along the Ukrainian path into the dark abyss. Usually, this ends very badly.” Publicly, Georgia’s prime minister, Irakli Kobakhidze, maintains it will all blow over. After the State Department announced Saturday the suspension of a strategic partnership with Tbilisi, Mr. Kobakhidze dismissed the move as a “temporary event.”“You can see that the outgoing administration is trying to leave the new administration with as difficult a legacy as possible. They are doing this regarding Ukraine — and now also concerning Georgia,” he told reporters yesterday of the upcoming change in power in Washington. “This will not have any fundamental significance. We will wait for the new administration and discuss everything with them.”

Trump Might Soon Face a Crisis in Georgia, Where the Former Soviet Republic Is in an Incipient Revolt Against Russia

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