Turkey’s Erdogan, in Post-War Pivot, Leverages the Reverse Flow of Syrian Refugees To Burnish his Regional Stature

Syrian refugees in Turkey — or some of them — could be back in time for Christmas or New Year’s. The collapse of the Assad regime at Damascus is precipitating a reverse flow of the refugees who had fled Syria for Turkey during the course of the Syrian civil war that started in 2011. While European countries grapple with the bureaucratic load of Syrian asylum seekers, for many of the nearly three million Syrian refugees in Turkey the answer is simpler: Pack up and go home. Already on Monday, barely a day after reports that ousted despot Bashar al-Assad had found a safe haven at Moscow, images of traffic jams on Turkish roads leading toward the Syrian border were appearing on social media. President Erdogan announced that Turkish authorities had opened the Yayladağı border gate in Hatay province. That border crossing, which had been closed since 2013, is geographically south of Aleppo and close to Turkey’s Mediterranean coast. Crowds also gathered at the Oncupinar Sinir Kapisi border crossing, which is north of Aleppo in Turkey’s Kilis province. Videos on social media showed people waiting in line at the modern Cilvegözü border gate, which had been “temporarily closed” since July 2012, as well. Technically speaking, Turkey did not confer refugee status on the Syrians who had fled to the county, on account of geographical limitation considerations written into the 1951 Geneva Convention on refugees. However, Mr. Erdogan has stated that “We will manage the processing of immigrants’ voluntary returns in a way befitting our hosting.” He added that “As Syria gains stability, voluntary returns will increase, and the 13-year longing of the Syrians for their homeland will come to an end.”Turkey’s interior minister, Ali Yerlikaya said on Monday that more than 1.2 million Syrians in Turkey are from Aleppo, which fell to rebel forces led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham last week. The historic city is also one of the largest in the Middle East.Syria’s fragility is in many respects Turkey’s strength. On the diplomatic front, Turkey’s still somewhat opaque role in helping to create the facts on the ground that precipitated Assad’s ouster amounts to nothing less than a humiliation for Vladimir Putin. In terms of the refugee crisis, if Mr. Erdogan succeeds in facilitating the return of millions of Syrians to their home, it could stand him in good stead with European leaders. Ironically, it is Europe’s distance from Syria that now makes its own situation with the processing of Syrian asylum seekers more complicated. Mr. Erdogan on Monday rejected any claims he might covet a sliver of Syrian land. “Türkiye has no eye on the territory of any other country. The only aim for our cross-border operations is to save our homeland from the terrorist attacks,” he stated. In the meantime, Turkish officials have stated that their allies have taken full control of the northern Syrian city of Manbij from an American-supported, Kurdish-led force known as the Syrian Democratic Forces, or SDF.Turkey views the SDF as an extension of the banned Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or PKK, which has waged a decades-long insurgency in Turkey. The SDF has also been a key ally of the United States in the war against Islamic State terrorists.Turkey’s foreign minister, Hakan Fidan, on Monday warned against allowing Islamic State or Kurdish fighters to take advantage of the volatility next door, saying Turkey will prevent Syria from turning into a “haven for terrorism.”For now, jubilation among many exiled Syrians and the eagerness to finally go home may eclipse bigger political questions. Turkish businesses, it turns out, may also have cause for celebration.

Turkey’s Erdogan, in Post-War Pivot, Leverages the Reverse Flow of Syrian Refugees To Burnish his Regional Stature

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