Ukraine Has Veto Power Over Moscow’s ‘Victory’ Parade

Here is the Kremlin’s nightmare scenario for Saturday’s annual “victory” parade through Red Square. Air raid sirens start wailing. Ukrainian drones buzz through the air. Goostepping soldiers panic and run for cover. And, live on national TV, security personnel bundle President Vladimir Putin — or his body double — into a bunker below Lenin’s Tomb.If Ukraine tries to pull such a trick, a Russian foreign ministry spokeswoman, Maria Zakharova, warned yesterday on Telegram, foreign embassies should immediately evacuate their diplomats from Kyiv. Otherwise, they face “the inevitability of a retaliatory strike on Kyiv by Russia’s Armed Forces.”Savoring the moment, President Volodymyr Zelensky noted that Russia no longer dares risk gathering tanks and missiles at Red Square. He said: “It will be the first time in many, many years they cannot afford military equipment, and they fear drones may buzz over Red Square. This is telling.”Indeed, Mr. Putin has fallen into a trap of his own making. Last week, he called President Trump and proposed a two-day ceasefire on May 8 and May 9 around Russia’s celebration of the Soviet victory in World War II. However, last year, Mr. Trump cut off all American military aid to Ukraine. Now, the American president lacks leverage.The entry to Moscow’s Red Square ahead of the 81st anniversary of the Soviet Union’s victory over Nazi Germany during World War II, May 6, 2026. AP/Alexander ZemlianichenkoMr. Zelensky came up with a counterproposal — an open-ended ceasefire starting early yesterday morning. If Russia complies, he said, he would not fire missiles into Moscow. However, 10 hours into this unilateral ceasefire, he said, Russian troops had committed 1,820 violations. On Tuesday, the day before the ceasefire, Russian attacks on Ukraine killed 27 civilians and wounded 118.“Deadly Russian attacks on Ukraine this morning break the unilateral ceasefire offered by Zelensky,” Ukrainian-American author Yaroslav Trofimov tweeted yesterday. “No reason then for Ukraine to respect the ceasefire that Putin proposed for the duration of his May 9 parade.”Playing with the Russians, Mr. Zelensky said last night that he has not decided whether to bomb the parade. Poking the Kremlin, he said: “Russia has fought itself to the point that even their main parade now depends on us.”Other Russian authorities are not taking chances. This week, World War II victory parades were cancelled in at least 15 major cities. These include such hotbeds of patriotism as Kaliningrad, the Baltic exclave seized from Germany in 1945, and Nizhniy Tagil, Russia’s main tank producing city, some 1,100 miles east of Ukraine.President Vladimir Putin at Moscow, May 4, 2026 Mikhail Metzel/Sputnik, Kremlin pool via APThese unprecedented cancellations reflect new realities. During four years of war, Ukraine has tripled its missile ranges. Since last year’s parade, Ukraine has started producing missiles and drones that can hit targets 1,100 miles away. On Monday, in a clear warning to Moscow authorities, a Ukrainian drone hit a high-rise apartment building only four miles from the Kremlin. Due to drone threats, most of Moscow’s airports were temporarily closed. To hinder drone guidance systems, mobile internet access is shut off this week at Moscow and St. Petersburg. New checkpoints control access to the capital, armored personnel carriers patrol the streets and snipers are posted on rooftops in the city center.This week, Russia concentrates its best anti-aircraft defenses around the capital. Analysts call it “the Ring of Fear.” By trucking missile systems into the Moscow Region, Russia’s military is leaving already poorly-defended regions even more vulnerable than before. Last month, Ukraine’s long range rockets — some carrying one-ton payloads — hit 14 Russian refineries, oil depots, and oil exporting terminals. On Monday, the head of Russia’s Aerospace Forces, which include missile defense, was fired. The new chief is Colonel General Alexander Chaiko. Playing again with the Kremlin, Mr. Zelensky publicly instructed his military intelligence chief to identify Russian military industrial sites that now are exposed due to the circling of air defense around Moscow. While blowing up the parade on Red Square would provide a press coup, it might be safer — and more strategic — to take out defense factories.“Ukraine made it crystal clear: it has the ability to turn Putin’s grand parade into a humiliating spectacle, with the Russian president being evacuated to a bunker under air raid sirens while soldiers scatter from the Red Square,” Poland-based X channel Visegrad 24 posted yesterday. “With this move, Zelensky put Putin in a perfect lose-lose position.” President Putin and the Russian defense minister at the time, Sergei Shoigu, on August 15, 2022. Sputnik, Kremlin pool via APLoss of face over a parade may be a fleeting setback in a larger drama of regime survival. On Monday, three Western-based press organizations — CNN, the Financial Times, and Russian exile Independent Stories — simultaneously covered a report apparently prepared by the intelligence agency of an unidentified Western European nation. The reports say that after the capture of Venezuela’s president and the killing of Iran’s supreme leader — two men that Mr. Putin knew well — the Russian leader has become fearful for his security.“He fears the use of drones for a possible assassination attempt by members of the Russian political elite,” reads the document which was reprinted in its entirety in Independent Stories. “Visitors to the Presidential Administration undergo two levels of screening, including a full body search.” Mr. Putin’s guard service has banned all aides and employees from carrying cellphones in the President’s proximity. Similarly, cooks, photographers, and bodyguards working for him cannot have internet-capable cellphones and can only travel in official cars. Presidential security have installed surveillance cameras inside many homes of employees, the report says.Fearful of a coup, the president has placed strict surveillance over his former comrade, Sergei Shoigu. The defense minister for 12 years until 2024 when he was pushed aside, Mr. Shoigu has little real power in his current post, secretary of Russia’s Security Council. Yet he retains the loyalties of many officers, some of whom may be seeking an exit from Russia’s stalemated war with Ukraine. In a warning, his former deputy, Ruslan Tsalikov, was arrested two months ago on charges of embezzlement and bribery. To maintain an image of normalcy, Mr. Putin’s publicists rely on pre-recorded videos of meetings. So far this year, he has only had two meetings with the “public,” both highly scripted affairs. Last year, he donned a military uniform and visited military units five times. So far this year, there have been no such visits.Security concerns rose after a car bomb on a Moscow street on December 22 took the life of Lieutenant General Fanil Sarvarov. Since Mr. Putin launched the full-bore attack on Ukraine four years ago, 13 Russian generals have died, some due to combat, some to Ukrainian hit squads.Correction: Saturday will be the date of Moscow’s “victory” parade at Red Square. An earlier version misstated the date.

Ukraine Has Veto Power Over Moscow’s ‘Victory’ Parade

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