The prospects for a productive second half of the 119th Congress are growing dimmer following the unexpected death of a Republican lawmaker, Congressman Doug LaMalfa of California, who passed away on Monday at the age of 65. With his passing, Republicans will now hold just 218 seats, making it the narrowest House GOP majority in more than a century. 

In 2024, Republicans won a three-seat majority in the House, which has presented numerous challenges for Speaker Mike Johnson. Few major legislative victories have been won by conservatives in the past year beyond making President Trump’s tax cuts permanent, boosting funding for deportation operations, and making major reforms to Medicaid. That was all part of a single bill, which President Trump himself had to personally muscle across the finish line over the summer. 

This year, Mr. Trump and his Republican allies had hoped that additional spending cuts, health care reforms, and immigration policy changes could be enacted on a party-line basis. LaMalfa’s passing makes that much more complicated. 

As of Tuesday, Republicans hold 218 seats to Democrats 213 seats. At the end of January, a runoff election in a deep-blue Texas district district will see a Democrat elected. In April, another solidly blue seat will almost certainly be filled by a Democrat, bringing the minority party to 215 seats. 

Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene resigned the same day that LaMalfa passed, meaning that her deep-red seat will remain vacant for several months. Governor Brian Kemp has not yet set a date for that special election. 

LaMalfa’s seat, however, could be empty until this summer, depending on how much pain Governor Gavin Newsom wants to inflict on the House GOP. At the earliest, a special election to fill his seat will take place in May, though Mr. Newsom could hold it open until mid-June if he chooses. If there is a runoff election — meaning no candidate wins a majority in the first round of voting — then LaMalfa’s deep-red seat could go without a representative until as late as August. 

It isn’t just LaMalfa’s death that is putting the fragility of Mr. Johnson’s majority on full display. The same day LaMalfa passed, an 80-year-old Republican lawmaker, Congressman Jim Baird, was involved in a car crash in Indiana requiring his hospitalization. His office says he is expected to make a full recovery, however. 

The last time Republicans held a House majority as slim as this one was during the 65th Congress in 1917, when the GOP had a one-vote margin for passing legislation. 

Mr. Trump has been complaining vociferously for months that Congress has been unable to pass much of his agenda, including new crackdowns on mail-in voting, immigration restrictions, health care reforms, and direct payments to individuals using revenue from his broad-based tariffs. 

On Tuesday, during a speech to House Republicans, Mr. Trump said that Congress must effectively gut the Affordable Care Act by eliminating insurance subsidies in order for federal funds to be sent to individuals in health savings accounts. 

“You can own health care. Figure it out,” he told lawmakers on Tuesday. “Let the money go directly to the people.”

“No money for the insurance companies!” he declared. 

The only way to do so, however, would be through the process known as reconciliation, which allows congressional majorities to avoid the Senate filibuster and pass legislation on a party-line basis. 

With LaMalfa’s passing, however, such party-line votes would be especially difficult. A 218-seat House majority — assuming all 215 Democrats stick together — means Mr. Johnson would be able to lose only two Republicans on any reconciliation bill. 

A second megabill would surely divide the Republican conference in numerous ways. The health care provisions could spook moderate lawmakers facing difficult re-election campaigns later this year while the tariff dividend checks — which could cost hundreds of billions of dollars — would almost certainly be bashed by fiscal conservatives.