What’s Really Going On in Greenland?

Greenland, the world’s largest island, has become the focal point of a diplomatic crisis that brought the trans-Atlantic alliance to the brink before an eleventh-hour framework agreement pulled both sides back from open confrontation.Following weeks of escalating threats from President Trump — including refusals to rule out military force and promises to impose punishing tariffs on European allies — the crisis appeared to stabilize on January 21 when Mr. Trump met with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte at the Davos World Economic Forum. The president announced a “framework of a future deal” on Arctic security and withdrew his threats to impose tariffs on eight European nations. Yet critical questions remain unanswered about what the framework actually entails, especially as both Greenland and Denmark have drawn firm red lines around their sovereignty.While Mr. Trump has backed away from threats of military action, claiming the United States needs only “total access” to Greenland rather than outright ownership, Greenlandic Prime Minister Jens-Frederik Nielsen made clear that “sovereignty is a red line.” Danish officials say Greenland remains an integral part of the Kingdom of Denmark, with any security arrangements to be governed by existing constitutional and alliance frameworks.NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte (C)speaks with Chair of the Committee on Foreign Affairs of the European Parliament (AFET) David McAllister (R) as they address committees of the European Union Parliament about Greenland negotiations on January 26, 2026. Omar Havana/Getty ImagesThe standoff has exposed deep fissures in the Western alliance and led to complaints from European leaders that the Americans are not being a reliable partner. Though the immediate crisis has been averted, the damage to trans-Atlantic trust may prove lasting — as adversaries like Russia and China watch for opportunities to exploit it.Strategic Realities vs. Political RhetoricGreenland sits at a critical juncture between North America and Europe, commanding the strategically vital Greenland-Iceland-UK Gap, which NATO patrols to detect Russian submarines. As Arctic ice melt accelerates at 270 billion tons annually, previously inaccessible shipping lanes are opening, potentially cutting Asia-Europe transit times significantly.The island also holds an estimated 1.5 million metric tons of rare-earth reserves, according to the United States Geological Survey, ranking it eighth globally. These minerals are critical for electric vehicle batteries, wind turbines, and defense technologies. With China controlling approximately 90 percent of global rare-earth processing, Washington views Greenland as a potential counterweight to Beijing’s dominance of the worldwide supply chain.Yet accessing these resources presents formidable challenges. With 80 percent of Greenland covered by ice, mining can cost five to 10 times as much as elsewhere. Even if extraction proved feasible, Greenland’s rare-earth ores would likely still require processing in China absent expanded allied refining capacity.Residential houses stand next to fjord on January 21, 2026 at Nuuk, Greenland. Sean Gallup/Getty ImagesMr. Trump has justified his desired acquisition push by repeatedly claiming that Russian destroyers, Chinese destroyers, and submarines are “all over” Greenland. Some researchers who study the Arctic are expressing skepticism..“The President and the administration have claimed security concerns about Greenland, but many of those concerns are overstated or simply untrue,” a research associate at The Arctic Institute’s Center for Circumpolar Security Studies, Ethan Wong, tells the Sun.While Greenland is strategically important for American homeland defense, Mr. Wong notes the United States has maintained a presence agreement there since World War II. Russian naval forces operate primarily from the Kola Peninsula around Russia and Norway, not Greenland’s periphery.“Do Russian naval vessels sail around Greenland? Not really. They’re mostly concentrated around Severomorsk and the Norwegian coast,” Mr. Wong explains. “Do Russian submarines pass around Greenland? I’m sure they do, but probably no more than they do around Canada, Iceland, or the UK.”Denmark’s Foreign Minister, Lars Løkke Rasmussen, and Greenland’s Foreign Minister, Vivian Motzfeldt, speak at a news conference at the Embassy of Denmark. AP/John McDonnellThe research director for Arctic and ocean politics at the Fridtjof Nansen Institute in Oslo, Andreas Østhagen, told reporters that he believed Mr. Trump’s claim about Russian, Chinese, and other destroyers and submarines surrounding Greenland “makes no sense in terms of facts.” When asked directly about the president’s assertions, Greenland’s business minister, Naaja Nathanielsen, also said authorities had detected no such threat.Mr. Trump, however, has dismissed Denmark’s Arctic defense capabilities as consisting of “two dog sleds.” He is not wrong about the sleds. The Sirius Dog Sled Patrol is an elite Danish naval unit conducting reconnaissance in terrain where vehicles cannot operate. Denmark’s modest military also maintains patrol ships and surveillance aircraft, and has pledged $14 billion in Arctic security investments.China’s PresenceWhile he says broader concerns about Chinese and Russian Arctic ambitions contain merit, Mr. Wong of the Arctic Institute argues that the narrative of Chinese dominance in Greenland doesn’t match reality.“There’s a narrative that China is ‘all over’ Greenland, and that’s simply untrue,” Mr. Wong says. “China is interested in Greenland and the Arctic generally, but its military or Coast Guard vessels are not operating there.”Flags at Nuuk, Greenland, January 14, 2026. Evgeniy Maloletka/APA 2025 Harvard study found that Chinese Arctic investment success was dramatically overstated by the Trump Administration. Of eight proposed Chinese investments in Greenland, seven either failed or never materialized. Denmark blocked Chinese bids for airport construction in 2018, citing security concerns.“China has shown interest in mining projects in Greenland, but many of those have been put on hold by Denmark, which is still responsible for security and foreign policy,” Mr. Wong says. “So the idea that China is on the verge of taking over Greenland really misses the mark.”The Rare Earth RealityThere is also the factor of Greenland’s untapped rare earth minerals — materials essential for everything from smartphones to fighter jets — which are of keen interest to the administration. Yet Mr. Wong says this reasoning collapses under scrutiny.“Greenland has some of the largest potential deposits of rare earth elements that we know of. The problem is that Greenland is covered in ice, most of it, and the conditions are extremely cold. It’s very hard to operate there,” Mr. Wong says.Even an American acquisition wouldn’t change the fundamental economics.Vice President JD Vance and Second Lady Usha Vance pose as they tour the US military’s Pituffik Space Base on March 28, 2025. Jim Watson – Pool / Getty Images“It wouldn’t change the fact that American companies would still have to want to invest and operate there. There are deposits in Alaska and other places that are much more economically feasible for U.S. companies to begin with,” Mr. Wong continues.The real bottleneck isn’t mining — it’s processing, he argues. China controls approximately 90 percent of global rare-earth processing, meaning that even if America successfully extracted minerals from Greenland’s frozen terrain, those raw materials would likely still need to be shipped to China for refinement before becoming usable.“The U.S. is taking steps to address that, but it will take much more time to build up that capacity. And none of that explains why Greenland is necessary,” Mr. Wong says. “The U.S. also has partners where deposits are more accessible—Vietnam, Australia, Brazil—and none of those require taking over territory to make cooperation happen.”The Framework and Its UncertaintiesFollowing his January 21 meeting with Mr. Rutte at Davos, Mr. Trump announced the withdrawal of threatened tariffs. He described reaching “the framework of a future deal” involving Greenland and Arctic security. The president characterized it as providing the United States with “total access” to Greenland permanently, telling the Fox Business Network: “There’s no end, there’s no time limit.”Yet the specifics remain opaque. Mr. Trump told CNBC the arrangement represented “a concept of a deal” but declined to elaborate on whether it involved United States ownership of Greenland, calling it “complex.” He claimed the deal addressed “security, great security, strong security and other things” and pertained to “the Arctic as a whole, but also Greenland.”A tower housing government offices stands illuminated at twilight on January 20, 2026 at Nuuk, Greenland. Sean Gallup/Getty ImagesMr. Rutte indicated the framework commits NATO allies to rapidly boost Arctic security capabilities, with work to begin in early 2026. “We will come together in NATO with our senior commanders to work out what is necessary,” he told Reuters. “I have no doubt we can do this quite fast.”However, both Danish and Greenlandic officials have pushed back against any notion that sovereignty is negotiable. Prime Minister Nielsen stated clearly: “We are ready to discuss a lot of things, and we are ready to negotiate a better partnership and so on. But sovereignty is a red line.”Danish officials emphasized that future cooperation must respect Denmark’s constitutional framework and existing alliance structures. Some reports suggest Mr. Trump may be seeking sovereign claims to pockets of territory around American military bases in Greenland — a proposition Denmark opposes.NATO at a CrossroadsOver the past few weeks, Mr. Trump also threatened tariffs on any countries that oppose Washington’s acquisition of Greenland, stating that the island is needed for national security and for his proposed “Golden Dome” missile defense system.While Mr. Trump has backed down for now, European leaders have expressed concern that such threats could arise at any moment. The simmering crisis threatens to fracture the Western alliance at its most fundamental level. Denmark is a founding NATO member that has fought alongside the United States since 1949, suffering disproportionally high casualties in Afghanistan.Donald Trump Jr., center, arrives at Nuuk, Greenland, January 7, 2025. Emil Stach/Ritzau Scanpix via AP“What we’re already seeing is an undermining of confidence and trust in NATO and in the U.S. alliance with European partners,” Mr. Wong says. “The administration has been chipping away at this for a while, but many European partners are increasingly concerned that they can no longer rely on the U.S. as a dependable ally.”The ripple effects extend beyond Europe. Analysts note that other partners and adversaries are also watching this and questioning America’s reliability.“Countries in Asia — Australia, Japan, South Korea — are wondering whether this could happen to them too,” says Mr. Wong. “That erosion of confidence is probably the biggest impact on U.S. security.”Multiple European allies have deployed military personnel to Greenland. Germany sent 13 reconnaissance troops, while Sweden, Norway, France, Finland, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom participated in Operation Arctic Endurance.Russia’s embassy in Belgium seized on the discord, stating that disagreements over Greenland make NATO’s ability to reach agreements increasingly unpredictable. Senator Mitch McConnell warned that burning the post-World War II treaty organization would constitute unprecedented strategic self-harm.Adversaries may further exploit the fractures.Danish military forces participate in an exercise with troops from several European NATO members at Kangerlussuaq, Greenland. AP/Ebrahim Noroozi“They’re likely examining this for opportunities to exploit fractures in the transatlantic alliance and the credibility of the U.S.,” Mr. Wong points out. “If the U.S. withdraws or weakens its presence in areas where it once had strong partnerships, adversaries may step in to fill that vacuum.”What Comes NextAs negotiations over the framework continue — led on the American side by Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Special Envoy Steve Witkoff — fundamental questions remain unresolved. Special envoy Jeff Landry plans a March visit to Greenland, while Washington awaits a Supreme Court ruling on tariff powers. Denmark has made clear that Greenland’s political status is settled and not open to renegotiation. NATO is accelerating plans for an expanded presence and exercises in the Arctic. And the United States appears to have stepped back from its most maximalist demands while still seeking what Mr. Trump calls “total access.”“Many of the goals the U.S. seems to have, whether security or economic, don’t require military means. Greenland, Denmark, and other partners would likely be happy to engage in dialogue and cooperation to address concerns,” Mr. Wong adds. “That’s what makes this so bizarre.”What began as campaign rhetoric evolved into a full-blown diplomatic crisis that tested whether the transatlantic alliance could survive its most powerful member’s territorial ambitions. Though the immediate threat has receded, the episode has left lasting questions about American reliability and the future of the post-war international order — questions that allies and adversaries alike will be asking for years to come.

What’s Really Going On in Greenland?

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