
The Long Hangover of the Roaring Eighties
By TOM DEIGNAN
|This article is from the archive of The New York Sun before the launch of its new website in 2022. The Sun has neither altered nor updated such articles but will seek to correct any errors, mis-categorizations or other problems introduced during transfer.

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In his book “The Wisdom of Crowds,” James Surowiecki, the New Yorker magazine’s business columnist, relates a story about the British scientist Francis Galton. In 1906, Galton attended a county fair, where he participated in a weight-judging competition of a fat ox. Galton believed that, among the 800 participants, the livestock experts at the fair would generally guess the animal’s weight correctly and the amateurs would be way off the mark. When Galton did a statistical test on the contestants’ estimates, averaging them, he came up with a startling conclusion: The “crowd” had guessed that the ox, after it had been slaughtered and dressed, would weigh 1,197 pounds. The actual weight of the ox, after it had been slaughtered and dressed, was 1,198 pounds.

By TOM DEIGNAN
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By SHARON KEHNEMUI
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By MATTHEW RICE
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By CARL ROLLYSON
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By SHARON KEHNEMUI
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By JEFFREY WELLS
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By SHARON KEHNEMUI
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By JOSEPH CURL
|In his book “The Wisdom of Crowds,” James Surowiecki, the New Yorker magazine’s business columnist, relates a story about the British scientist Francis Galton. In 1906, Galton attended a county fair, where he participated in a weight-judging competition of a fat ox. Galton believed that, among the 800 participants, the livestock experts at the fair would generally guess the animal’s weight correctly and the amateurs would be way off the mark. When Galton did a statistical test on the contestants’ estimates, averaging them, he came up with a startling conclusion: The “crowd” had guessed that the ox, after it had been slaughtered and dressed, would weigh 1,197 pounds. The actual weight of the ox, after it had been slaughtered and dressed, was 1,198 pounds.
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