BEST PICTURE

‘MILLION DOLLAR BABY’
Vegas odds: 7 to 5 Our odds: 5 to 7

WHY IT WILL WIN For emotional heft, it’s in a different weight class than the competition.
WHY IT WON’T WIN Its dramatic plot twist may be too much of a sucker punch.

‘THE AVIATOR’
Vegas odds: Even Our odds: 3 to 2

WHY IT WILL WIN It’s big, it’s full of stars – and most of all, it’s about Hollywood.
WHY IT WON’T WIN For all the plane crashes and bedded starlets and jars of urine, it never really gets inside Howard Hughes’s head.

‘FINDING NEVERLAND’
Vegas odds: 8 to 1 Our odds: 40 to 1

WHY IT WILL WIN It’s a sentimental tearjerker about the origins of a classic children’s story.
WHY IT WON’T WIN Michael Jackson believed in Neverland, too, and look where it got him.

‘SIDEWAYS’
Vegas odds: 12 to 1 Our odds: 10 to 1

WHY IT WILL WIN After months of critical backlash against the early rave reviews, the Academy may recall that it really is awfully good.
WHY IT WON’T WIN More likely they won’t.

‘RAY’
Vegas odds: 20 to 1 Our odds: 15 to 1

WHY IT WILL WIN It’s an ambitious biopic about a flawed American hero.
WHY IT WON’T WIN “The Aviator” is, too, and it’s got more juice.

BEST ACTOR

JAMIE FOXX (‘RAY’)
Vegas odds: 1 to 2 Our odds: 1 to 4

WHY HE’LL WIN Just months after Ray Charles died, Mr. Foxx brilliantly brought the music legend back to life on the big screen. WHY HE WON’T WIN He will.

LEONARDO DICAPRIO (‘THE AVIATOR’)
Vegas odds: 3 to 1 Our odds: 10 to 1

WHY HE’LL WIN This is the second consecutive Martin Scorsese picture he’s starred in, with a third already in the works. Doesn’t that make him the new De Niro?
WHY HE WON’T WIN That little mustache makes him look like a boy playing grown-up. Even when portraying Hughes at 42, he doesn’t seem a day over 25.

JOHNNY DEPP (‘FINDING NEVERLAND’)
Vegas odds: 8 to 1 Our odds: 25 to 1

WHY HE’LL WIN “Pirates of the Caribbean” has been in heavy rotation on the cable movie channels, reminding everyone what a gas he was as a nautical Keith Richards.
WHY HE WON’T WIN He’s not nearly as much fun without the mascara and beaded goatee.

DON CHEADLE (“HOTEL RWANDA’)
Vegas odds: 15 to 1 Our odds: 10 to 1

WHY HE’LL WIN He’s a terrifically versatile actor who is quietly heroic in a film about a great historical tragedy.
WHY HE WON’T WIN The Rwandan genocide seemed too remote for us to intervene at the time; the film may suffer from the same indifference.

CLINT EASTWOOD (‘MILLION DOLLAR BABY’)
Vegas odds: 40 to 1 Our odds: 8 to 1

WHY HE’LL WIN He’s a true film icon who’s never taken home an acting Oscar.
WHY HE WON’T WIN We’ve seen most of it before: the grimacing, the growling, and yes, even the crying.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

MORGAN FREEMAN (‘MILLION DOLLAR BABY’)
Vegas odds: 2 to 1 Our odds: 3 to 2

WHY HE’LL WIN He’s a beloved screen presence who’s been passed over three times (“Street Smart,” “Driving Miss Daisy,” and “The Shawshank Redemption”).
WHY HE WON’T WIN Black actors dominating the awards was the 2001 storyline, and the Academy hates to repeat itself.

THOMAS HADEN CHURCH (‘SIDEWAYS’)
Vegas odds: 9 to 5 Our odds: 5 to 2

WHY HE’LL WIN It’s the least the Academy can do, having stiffed “Sideways” costar (and critic’s favorite) Paul Giamatti.
WHY HE WON’T WIN This is an actor whose previous claim to fame was starring on “Wings.”

CLIVE OWEN (‘CLOSER’)
Vegas odds: 3 to 1 Our odds: 4 to 1

WHY HE’LL WIN After a yearlong overdose of Jude Law’s winsome beauty, we’re primed for an Englishman with Clive’s rugged ferocity.
WHY HE WON’T WIN The role of deviant dermatologist isn’t the one that will put him over the top.

ALAN ALDA (‘THE AVIATOR’)
Vegas odds: 7 to 1 Our odds: 15 to 1

WHY HE’LL WIN Everyone loved him on M*A*S*H.
WHY HE WON’T WIN That was 20 years ago.

JAMIE FOXX (‘COLLATERAL’)
Vegas odds: 12 to 1 Our odds: 20 to 1

WHY HE’LL WIN He’s got more buzz right now than any other actor in Hollywood.
WHY HE WON’T WIN Two acting Oscars in the same night would be unseemly.

BEST DIRECTOR

MARTIN SCORSESE (‘THE AVIATOR’)
Vegas odds: Even Our odds: Even

WHY HE’LL WIN The Academy has a lot to make up for, having passed Mr. Scorsese over for “Taxi Driver,” “Raging Bull,” and “Goodfellas.”
WHY HE WON’T WIN Of all the films he’s made, is this really the one that deserves the hardware?

CLINT EASTWOOD (‘MILLION DOLLAR BABY’)
Vegas odds: 6 to 5 Our odds: 6 to 5

WHY HE’LL WIN There’s nothing like a reformed sinner, and Mr. Eastwood’s recen, brooding films are seen as penance for his vigilante days.
WHY HE WON’T WIN He already got a statue for “Unforgiven.”

TAYLOR HACKFORD (‘RAY’)
Vegas odds: 10 to 1 Our odds: 15 to 1

WHY HE’LL WIN After 25 years of directing consistently good movies (“An Officer and a Gentleman,” “The Devil’s Advocate”), he finally directed a great one.
WHY HE WON’T WIN One of these names is not like the others: Scorsese, Eastwood, Hackford.

ALEXANDER PAYNE (‘SIDEWAYS’)
Vegas odds: 15 to 1 Our odds: 20 to 1

WHY HE’LL WIN He’s given us another quirky, understated movie in which no one dies or goes crazy.
WHY HE WON’T WIN The Academy hates movies like that.

MIKE LEIGH (‘VERA DRAKE’)
Vegas odds: 25 to 1 Our odds: 40 to 1

WHY HE’LL WIN He was nominated even though his film didn’t get a Best Picture nod.
WHY HE WON’T WIN The last director who won for an un-nominated film was Frank Borzage in 1932.

BEST ACTRESS

HILARY SWANK (‘MILLION DOLLAR BABY’)
Vegas odds: 7 to 5 Our odds: 7 to 5

WHY SHE’LL WIN The Academy loves a pretty actress who is willing to be unpretty or act like a boy. In “Million Dollar Baby,” Ms. Swank does both.
WHY SHE WON’T WIN Does anyone really think that Ms. Swank, at 31, should have more Best Actress trophies than Meryl Streep?

ANNETTE BENING (‘BEING JULIA’)
Vegas odds: 2 to 1 Our odds: 3 to 2

WHY SHE’LL WIN Giving her the statue is the closest thing to giving it to Warren, and Hollywood loves Warren.
WHY SHE WON’T WIN Only one actress in the last 18 years has won the award in a film that grossed less than $10 million (Jessica Lange in “Blue Sky”).

IMELDA STAUNTON (‘VERA DRAKE’)
Vegas odds: 4 to 1 Our odds: 6 to 1

WHY SHE’LL WIN The Academy likes movies about abortion providers. (See “The Cider House Rules”).
WHY SHE WON’T WIN The Academy likes thin, glamorous actresses even more. (See Charlize, Nicole, Halle, Julia …)

KATE WINSLET (‘ETERNAL SUNSHINE OF THE SPOTLESS MIND’)
Vegas odds: 8 to 1 Our odds: 8 to 1

WHY SHE’LL WIN She gave a splendid performance in the best film of the year.
WHY SHE WON’T WIN The Academy doesn’t want to remind people that they failed to nominate it for Best Picture.

CATALINA SANDINO MORENO (‘MARIA FULL OF GRACE’)
Vegas odds: 20 to 1 Our odds: 25 to 1

WHY SHE’LL WIN She’s a fresh new face on the international film scene.
WHY SHE WON’T WIN: Translation: She’s appearing in her first motion picture and it isn’t in English.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

CATE BLANCHETT (‘THE AVIATOR’)
Vegas odds: 8 to 5 Our odds: 3 to 2

WHY SHE’LL WIN It’s been almost 25 years since the Academy gave Katherine Hepburn her fourth Oscar, and this is as near as it’ll come to giving her another.
WHY SHE WON’T WIN Cate captures Kate’s onscreen persona, but doesn’t shed much light on what she was like without the cameras rolling.

VIRGINIA MADSEN (‘SIDEWAYS’)
Vegas odds: 2 to 1 Our odds: 5 to 2

WHY SHE’LL WIN After 20 years stuck in movies like “Candyman” and “Highlander 2,” she finally got a good role and she nailed it.
WHY SHE WON’T WIN The Academy didn’t go for Mr. Giamatti’s wine geek; it may not go for hers either.

NATALIE PORTMAN (‘CLOSER’)
Vegas Odds: 7 to 2 Our odds: 6 to 1

WHY SHE’LL WIN At 24, she’s already had more big performances than most actresses have in a career.
WHY SHE WON’T WIN We’ve all had enough of the stripper-with-a-heart-of-gold routine, haven’t we?

SOPHIE OKONEDO (‘HOTEL RWANDA’)
Vegas odds: 6 to 1 Our odds: 25 to 1

WHY SHE’LL WIN For voters who pass over Mr. Cheadle, she offers a second opportunity to reward the film.
WHY SHE WON’T WIN Unlike Mr. Cheadle, she’s a virtual unknown in Hollywood.

LAURA LINNEY (‘KINSEY’)
Vegas odds: 15 to 1 My odds: 20 to 1

WHY SHE’LL WIN She delivered her usual excellence in a film that was expected to make some Oscar noise.
WHY SHE WON’T WIN Emphasis on “was.” “Kinsey” faded fast, and with it Ms. Linney’s chances.