‘Beware of Tisha B’Av’: Will Iran Attack Israel Next Tuesday?

The buzz in Israel is that if Iran and Hezbollah are to launch a major attack, as they are vowing to do, it will start next Tuesday. As Jews have said for centuries, “Beware of Tisha B’Av.” The ninth day of the Hebrew month of Av, which starts Tuesday night, is marked by fasting to commemorate the destruction of two Jerusalem temples. A Babylonian, Nebuchadnezzar, destroyed Solomon’s temple in 586 B.C.E. The Romans destroyed the rebuilt temple in 70 C.E.Other historical calamities that occurred on that fateful calendar day are being lamented, but the destruction of the two temples is the most famous, as the events mark the cessation of Jewish sovereignty over the land of Israel. Genocidal minds at Tehran might think that what has worked twice in history could now succeed again. Israel has been on edge since the July 30 twin killing of Hezbollah’s second-in-command, Fuad Shukr, at Beirut, and Hamas’s political chief, Ismail Haniyeh, at Tehran. The Islamic Republic and its most powerful proxy, Lebanon-based Hezbollah, have vowed painful retaliation, and America is leading attempts to halt a war that could inflame the entire region. On paper, circumstances are favorable for a comprehensive regional deal, the Foundation for Defense of Democracies’ vice president for research, Jonathan Schanzer, tells the Sun.Following the Haniyeh killing and an earlier elimination of Hamas’s military chief in Gaza, Mohammed Deif, the terrorist organization is “weeks, maybe months from complete implosion,” Mr. Schanzer says. Also, “Israel now controls the pipeline from Egypt to Gaza” — the Philadelphi corridor, where arms and supplies have been smuggled to Hamas for years. A deal to release all hostages and end the Gaza war, which would also force a Hezbollah withdrawal away from the Israeli northern border area, is possible, Mr. Schanzer adds. For that, though, “Iran needs to be forced to back down or face consequences,” while America and Israel must unite to exert pressure on Tehran and its proxies. Instead, President Biden and Vice President Harris are working with Qatar and Egypt to pressure “both sides” to end the Gaza war. The three countries are calling on representatives of Israel, America’s strongest Mideast ally, and of Hamas, a weakened terror organization, to travel to Doha or Cairo next Thursday. The Thursday summit to start finalizing a cease-fire deal was proposed by Qatar and Egypt, and Mr. Biden then endorsed it, a senior administration official told reporters Thursday night, according to Axios. Yet, after the death of the Doha-based Haniyeh, and since the pro-Iran Yahya Sinwar assumed the Hamas leadership, Qatar’s leverage over the organization is waning. Israelis meanwhile are increasingly eyeing Egypt suspiciously since its involvement in Philadelphi corridor smuggling to Hamas has been exposed. America is relying on two regional players that might not have Israel’s best interests at heart. It is also attempting to resurrect a deal that was hatched weeks before Hamas was significantly weakened. Instead, Mr. Schanzer says, America and Israel must unite to force a more favorable deal. It should entail, for one, the release of all hostages, dead or alive, rather than a handful at a time. Washington, though, seems to believe that the combination of regional diplomacy backed by European allies and the deployment of sizable American military assets to the region will force the Islamic Republic to rethink its plans.“Iran has publicly stated that if there is a cease-fire in Gaza it may affect its position,” an unidentified senior administration official said. If Tehran nevertheless decides to retaliate, the official added, the consequences “would be serious for Iran and its economy.”A major Mideast war could be disastrous for Ms. Harris’s presidential campaign and Mr. Biden’s hope of securing his foreign policy legacy. Exerting equal public pressure on both Israel and its enemies, however, is yet to calm the winds of war. In a letter to Sinwar, the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps Quds Force chief, Esmail Qaani, vowed an attack on Israel that would be “harsher than the one in April,” an IRGC mouthpiece, Mehr News, reported Friday. “We are preparing to avenge Haniya’s blood,” Mr. Qaani wrote to the recrowned Hamas chief. “This is our duty.”Israelis are taking such threats seriously. While Tel Aviv residents limit their outings, Hezbollah shells the Galilee daily — and that is just a preview, Hezbollah’s chief, Hassan Nasrallah, says. In a speech this week he boasted that Israel’s protracted anticipation of a major attack is “part of the punishment” for the Shukr killing. The Israeli military has plans to prevent a Tisha B’Av-type destruction. Yet, it would prefer to end the threat by putting more decisive pressure on Iran and its proxies than Washington has exerted to date.

‘Beware of Tisha B’Av’: Will Iran Attack Israel Next Tuesday?

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