Stocks Close Mixed on Doubts of Rate Drop

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The New York Sun

Wall Street finished a volatile session mixed today as investors grappled with the possibility that the Federal Reserve might not lower interest rates as much as they hope.

The stock market racheted up and down throughout the day, with Wall Street still nervous after Friday’s dismal employment report. The data, which showed the first monthly decline in jobs in four years, rekindled fears about housing and credit market weakness bleeding into the overall economy and squeezing consumer spending.

Speeches from Fed officials today seemed to give investors a bit more reason to be optimistic about the economy, but the officials avoided hinting at how the central bank might alter rates.

The fed president of San Francisco, Janet Yellen, said that while market turmoil has the potential to hurt the economy, rate policy should not be used to shield investors from losses. The fed president of Dallas, Richard Fisher, said the economy appears to be “weathering the storm,” and the fed president of Atlanta, Dennis Lockhart, said investors should consider Friday’s unemployment report in the context of a mostly strong batch of retail sales reports.

For many investors, a rate cut after more than a year of the Fed standing pat on rates is practically a given. The debate, as they see it, is whether the Fed on September 18 will reduce rates by a quarter percentage point or a half percentage point to loosen up the tight credit markets — and also, if the central bank will continue to reduce rates as the year goes on.

There could be a major sell-off if the Fed doesn’t reduce rates next week, a director of investment strategy for I. A. Englander & Co., Scott Fullman, said. And until then, movements will likely to be choppy, and exaggerated by low trading volumes. “It’s very volatile here, but we’re not seeing a tremendous amount of volume. People are on the sidelines. I think people want to be convinced of what’s happening before they get back in.”

The Dow Jones industrial average rose 14.47, or 0.11%, to 13,127.85, after falling 250 points on Friday and switching directions several times throughout the session today.

Broader stock indexes fell. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index slipped 1.85, or 0.13%, to 1,451.70, and the Nasdaq composite index declined 6.59, or 0.26%, to 2,559.11.

Bond prices rose as stocks slipped, pushing the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note down to 4.34% from 4.37% late Friday.

Stocks experienced a short relief rally in afternoon trading after General David Petraeus said to Congress that he recommended to President Bush that the drawdown of American forces from Iraq start this month, a chief market strategist at A.G. Edwards & Sons Inc., Alfred Goldman, said. But the gains were quickly lost.

Economic data was sparse today. The one notable report came from the Federal Reserve, which said consumer credit rose at an annual rate of 3.7% in July, down from a 5.9% growth rate for consumer debt in June.

The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies fell 5.98, or 0.77%, to 769.81.

Declining issues outnumbered advancers by about 5 to 3 on the New York Stock Exchange, where volume came to 1.34 billion shares.

On Friday, the Labor Department’s jobs report further depressed a market already uneasy about a lackluster housing market, tightening availability of credit, and a rise in mortgage defaults. Because of Friday’s retrenchment, the three major indexes all lost more than 1% for the week.

While some investors had hoped for weak data to help the Fed justify cutting interest rates when it meets next week, the market was shocked by a loss in jobs when a gain had been expected. With consumer spending accounting for about two-thirds of economic activity, Wall Street is concerned about any loss in employment that would make consumers hesitant to spend.

Today, the market absorbed more news of fallout from mortgage failures. Countrywide Financial Corp. said after the closing bell Friday it would cut as many as 12,000 jobs — up to 20% of it work force — as the mortgage lender tries to ride out upheaval in the mortgage industry. The company expects new mortgages to fall 25% next year.

Countrywide fell $1, or 5.5%, to $17.21.

Not all financial stocks were weak, though — a British billionaire, Joseph Lewis, a magnate who controls more than 170 companies, acquired a 7% stake in investment bank Bear Stearns Cos. Bear Stearns rose $2.13, or 2%, to $107.50.

Some technology stocks were also strong. Advanced Micro Devices Inc. rose 33 cents, or 2.6%, to $12.94 after releasing its newest microprocessor, and Apple Inc. rose $4.94, or 3.8%, to $136.71 after selling its 1 millionth iPhone yesterday.

Light, sweet crude futures for October delivery rose 79 cents to settle at $77.49 on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

The dollar slipped against most other major currencies, while gold prices, which have risen sharply in recent weeks amid concerns about the strength of the American dollar, extended their gains. A rate cut by the Fed could hurt dollar-denominated assets, prompting some investors to shift into gold.

Overseas, Japan’s Nikkei stock average fell 2.22%. Britain’s FTSE 100 fell 0.92%, Germany’s DAX index fell 0.82%, and France’s CAC-40 fell 0.80%.


The New York Sun

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