After listening to the president propose a fiscal stimulus package to bail out the slumping economy, I thought of a catchy line from “Sweeney Todd”: “The history of the world, my sweet, is who gets eaten and who gets to eat.”

The plan, whose principal thrust is tax relief for consumers and incentives to business to increase spending, was greeted by many on Wall Street as insufficient to stave off a recession, shy of specifics, possibly inflationary, and as a move that could even raise the budget deficit.

Indicative of the Street’s disenchantment with the package was Friday’s market performance. The Dow, up more than 100 points before the president’s late-morning speech, wrapped up the day with a loss of 59.91 points, to 12,099.30.

So as far as “Sweeney Todd” goes, investors were the ones who got eaten, as the market’s 2008 downtrend (8% to 11% in the major averages) continued.

I was also reminded of the Sweeney Todd comment when I read an e-mail message from a worried Melvin Einhorn, who, like most investors, is taking a beating this year. He’s especially interested, he writes, in “knowing when the bloodletting stops” and hearing the latest thinking of the editors of two of the country’s leading investment newsletters, the Dow Theory Forecasts and Dow Theory Letters.

His message: “Dan, call an ambulance. I’m bleeding badly, so help. I don’t know if you keep a scorecard on the people you quote, but one of your best stockpickers is a guy named Maloney. I made good money on several of his picks. Could you ask him what he likes now. I would also like to know if the Dow Theory Letters, which turned bullish last year, is still bullish.”

Okay, here’s their thinking, but first let’s get the facts correct: Investment adviser Rich Moroney is research chief of the Dow Theory Forecasts, not Maloney. The other newsletter, the Dow Theory Letters, is the granddaddy of newsletters: It was started in 1958 by its 85-year-old editor, Richard Russell, often referred to as Wall Street’s superbear.

With another nod to “Sweeney Todd,” Mr. Moroney gets to eat because of his stockpicking prowess, while Mr. Russell gets eaten because of his poor timing in switching into the bullish camp. Mr. Moroney, who sees a tough environment in 2008 and believes investors should have 20% to 25% of their stock portfolios in cash reserves, has picked a number of winners in this column, among them Garmin, L-3 Communications, Lockheed Martin, and PepsiCo. In addition, the newsletter’s buy list far outpaced the market last year, posting an 18.1% gain, versus a 3.5% rise for S&P 500, Mr. Moroney says.

Although cautious and concerned about earnings and margin deterioration, Mr. Moroney is not suggesting investors run for the hills, but that they respect the obvious trend and be more defensive. He says a wholesale retreat from stocks is premature because there are still companies with attractive values that are supported by solid profit outlooks. He strongly favors six such names, each of which he rates both a market outperformer and a potential 15% to 20% gainer over the next 12 months.

His top 2008 pick is offshore driller Transocean, and the remaining five are BMC Software, Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold, Humana, Manitowoc, and Oceaneering International.

After maintaining a bearish stance for many years, Mr. Russell turned bullish last May, but he now appears to be having serious second thoughts.

In a recent commentary, he noted that something has interrupted the rising trend. “It’s not a little thing,” he wrote, “but it’s something big, very powerful and very basic.” He said he had no idea what it was, but speculated on a number of possibilities. Chief among them: The dollar could be in serious trouble, the consumer could finally be throwing in the spending towel, the real estate situation could be worse than people think, or the problem could be so major that it’s beyond the Federal Reserve’s ability to manipulate.

Mr. Russell observed he was sure of one thing, namely: “The great tide of the market appears to be turning down.” Mincing no words about where he stands now, Mr. Russell observed, “We’re watching a deadly bear market, one that is pressing down on every stock exchange on the planet.” He noted that both the Dow Industrials and Transports closed Thursday at new lows, “reconfirming this is a primary bear market.”

Gold, which he believes remains in a primary bull market, continues to be his no. 1 investment choice. One of his top gold picks is StreetTracks Gold Trust (GLD), a trust that tracks the price of gold. Another favorite is the Market Vectors EFT Trust (GDX), which consists of a group of gold mining shares.

The message from our two Dow letters is essentially the same: For now, at least, it’s no longer just Dow Jones, but “Down Jones.”

dandordan@aol.com