Gingrich: Syrian Reality and Western Fantasy — a Real Test Lies Ahead

Syria is about to provide a real test for President Trump’s vision of a more deliberate America that refuses to invest lives and resources in fights which are not central to America’s safety.It is good that Bashar Al-Assad and his family dictatorship have been forced to flee Syria. In two generations, father and son imprisoned, tortured, and killed hundreds of thousands of Syrians. They forced millions to become refugees in Europe. They allied with Iran to undermine Lebanon and support Hezbollah’s attacks on Israel. It is good that President Putin and the Russians could not generate the combat power to prop up the Assad family. The costly invasion of Ukraine — and the Ukrainian people’s courageous effort to fight it — have drained the Russian dictatorship militarily and economically. Now, its power is ebbing, and Russia finds itself in retreat.It is great that Iran’s massive investments in Syria, Hezbollah, and Hamas have come crashing down. It is equally great that when Israel finally responded directly to Iranian provocations, the Russian anti-aircraft systems were impotent, and the Israeli Air Force owned the skies over Teheran and the rest of the country.All this is happening because of the courage and determination of Prime Minister Netanyahu and the Israeli people. If they had followed the Biden administration’s constant calls for restraint, cease fires, and half-measure military actions, none of this would be happening.The attacks by Hamas on October 7, 2023, and Hezbollah’s supporting attacks in the north a day later crossed a line. Israel had been restrained through decades of harassment, that restraint ended. The Israeli government set out to shatter its opponents. It was determined to create a reality in which its enemies were radically weakened and the threat to Israel was dramatically reduced.Turkey, the great rival to Iran for leadership in the region, sensed the vacuum of power and funded and equipped a small army of Islamist extremists. They found that Mr. Assad’s military was ready to collapse. The long years of civil war, corruption, and torture had finally broken the morale of the military Mr. Assad needed to survive. So, he and his family live in Moscow at Mr. Putin’s mercy.Now the contest will be between Western fantasies seeking to develop a supposedly unified, democratic Syria and the grim reality outlined in Robert Kaplan’s book, “The Coming Anarchy.” Syria is an extraordinarily complicated country with a wide range of religious groups.The Shia Muslims have been fighting the Sunni Muslims for more than 1,000 years. The Druze are a religious sect which broke off from Islam centuries ago and has more than 1 million adherents in Syria, Lebanon, and Israel (where the Druze supply a lot of the combat soldiers of the Israeli Defense Force). There is still a large Christian community in Syria, and a variety of other smaller religious groups.In the north, there is a substantial Kurdish community, which has survived in part with American military aid and a small group of American soldiers. The current Turkish President, Recep Erdoğan, hates the Kurds and will try to destroy them if he can.The Israelis have decided, at least for the moment, to play a cautious game and limit their enemies’ abilities to hurt them. An extensive bombing campaign has been carried out by both the Israeli and American air forces to eliminate Syria’s various chemical and conventional weapons depots.Israel has moved its forces into the Syrian parts of the Golan Heights and thus created an even deeper defensive zone against future enemy action. There is at least one report of Israeli patrols getting to within 40 miles of Damascus.The most complicated part of trying to move toward a stable, unified Syria is the reality that the dominant force driving out Mr. Assad is the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS.Unfortunately for the delusional fantasists in Western state departments and foreign ministries, HTS is a designated terrorist group. In 2018, the United States placed a $10 million bounty on the group’s leader, Abu-Mohammad al-Jolani, who is the leader of the force which liberated Damascus.Mr. al-Jolani has learned a great deal about manipulating the Western press and Western diplomats. He now wears a jacket for interviews, so he looks more like a businessman than a terrorist. He talks about profound changes.When asked about his ties to Al Qaeda and ISIS, he told one interviewer, “‘I believe that everyone in life goes through phases and experiences, and these experiences naturally increase a person’s awareness. A person in their 20s will have a different personality than someone in their 30s or 40s, and certainly someone in their 50s.’”It fits perfectly into Western liberalism’s refusal to believe anything bad about third-world personalities. When asked, “So are those days behind you?,” Mr. al-Jolani responded, “Sometimes it’s essential to adjust to reality, and because someone who rigidly clings to certain ideas and principles without flexibility cannot effectively lead societies or navigate complex conflicts like the one happening in Syria.”So, now we have a westernized, jacket-wearing, supposedly reformed terrorist who knows exactly how to play the Western press and the ever-self-deceiving Western elites. Israel and Turkey will maneuver carefully around each other to find some kind of modus vivendi in their backyard.America should minimize our commitment of lives and resources — and avoid the fantasy that we can somehow impose a stable, secular democracy. We hope the Syrian people will find their way to a better future, but America should not be burdened to create it.

Gingrich: Syrian Reality and Western Fantasy — a Real Test Lies Ahead

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