Hezbollah Runs a Dangerous Gamble in War Against Israel

Hezbollah is running a dangerous gamble. Its aggressive behavior on the northern border of Israel is going to force a decisive reaction once Israel’s major effort in Gaza is concluded.Hezbollah is as deeply anti-Israeli as Hamas. Its leaders have taken advantage of Israel’s focus on the south to make life miserable for Israelis in the north. An estimated 100,000 Israelis have been evacuated from the border with Lebanon to minimize casualties from Hezbollah rocket barrages.There are an estimated 120,000-plus missiles in the Hezbollah arsenal. Many were sent from Iran. Others were made in Lebanon with Iranian help. Indeed, Hezbollah relies heavily on financial and weapons support from Iran. Since Hezbollah is clearly the strongest military force in Lebanon, the national government in Beirut is powerless to force it to change.The various United Nations efforts to police the border and minimize violence have also been useless. As in many war zones, the UN gives victims a false sense of security while the forces of terrorism and violence operate without hindrance. We know that in Gaza 10 percent or more of the UN relief personnel were supporting Hamas. We should expect the same collaboration in the north with Hezbollah.As soon as the Israeli Defense Forces can reorganize and refocus from the south to the north, Hezbollah will be faced with a choice. It can agree to move further north into Lebanon, or east into Syria, to create a buffer zone with northern Israel. Or it should expect an all-out Israeli assault to destroy its capacity to be a threat.This would likely set Lebanon back a generation.There are no conceivable circumstances in which an Israeli government could passively accept 100,000 of its citizens having their homes, farms, schools, medical facilities, and factories threatened. There are no circumstances in which a freely-elected democracy can tolerate threats to wound and kill tens of thousands of its citizens.Iran and Hezbollah have mistaken a disciplined Israeli decision to finish off Hamas before dealing with other threats as an act of weakness. The IDF is more than capable of destroying Hezbollah if it must. It learned a lot of lessons from the inadequate performance in its fight with Hezbollah in 2006.The people of Israel are also realistic about the depth of hostility they face with Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran. Their determination to decisively defeat their enemies and move toward a peaceful future with Egypt, Jordan, and the Gulf States is a new factor.The Biden administration’s toleration of unending violence by terrorist organizations such as Hezbollah and Iran only increases the danger of an all-out war.There are simple things President Biden could do to help. For starters, he could make abundantly clear that America stands with Israel. The Biden administration could also return an aircraft carrier group to the Eastern Mediterranean Sea. And it could expedite the delivery of Iron Dome interceptors (which Congress already approved).However, the American position should ultimately be to hold the theocratic dictatorship in Teheran responsible for every violent act by its agents. When the Houthis disrupt shipping in the Red Sea, the Iranians should have their shipping disrupted. When Hezbollah attacks innocent Israeli citizens, its funders, financiers, weapons suppliers, planners, and trainers in Teheran should pay a price.Until the Iranian dictatorship is made to feel consequences for its terrorist policies and its support of attempts to destroy Israel the attacks will continue.Faced with American passivity and appeasement of the terrorist regimes, the Israelis must work even harder to force their enemies to quit attacking innocent civilians.With active, strategic, and intelligence American help, Israel could rapidly reshape the Iranian behavior and that of its various puppets. An Israeli-American effort that was serious and methodical would encourage Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Jordan, and Egypt to take more active roles in policing the terrorist systems.What must not continue is a one-sided war of Hezbollah against civilians who want to live in northern Israel. As analysts look at this situation, they need to remember the decisive shift in Israeli attitudes from managing a relationship with Hamas to destroying Hamas.If the missile attacks continue in the north — or if Hezbollah dares to launch a full attack into northern Israel — the same decisive transition of goals will occur. The Israeli people will demand decisive actions from the Israeli government to defend their right to live in safety. They will not likely care what the UN thinks about it.The situation in Gaza is serious, but we could see a much bigger war on Israel’s north if Hezbollah continues its aggression.

Hezbollah Runs a Dangerous Gamble in War Against Israel

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