If the Midterm Elections Were Today, the Democrats Would Win

Democrat Taylor Rehmet’s victory over Republican Leigh Wambsganss in the Texas state senate special election on Saturday is an important signal: If the midterm elections were today, the Democrats would win the House by a solid majority and might even win the Senate, although the second is harder to do.This special election was in a district President Trump carried by 17 points in 2024. There was a 31-point swing as the Democrat won by 14 points. Mr. Rehmet flipped the seat for the first time since 1992.There was historically low turnout — some 200,000 fewer voters cast ballots Saturday than in the 2022 midterms. This was in part due to a snowstorm, but there are broader issues with voter enthusiasm.Texas’s lieutenant governor, Dan Patrick, said the loss is a “wake-up call for Republicans across Texas. Our voters cannot take anything for granted.”A former Republican state legislator, Jason Villaba, who heads up the Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation, has warned that the surge of Hispanic voters for Mr. Trump and the Republicans has begun to fall back into the patterns of the past — and this has enormous implications for a future Republican majority.A variety of issues and realities are weighing down Mr. Trump and the Republican Party. Mr. Trump and the MAGA movement are committed to profound changes from the liberal old order. This means there is a bloc of 40 percent to 45 percent of the American people inclined to be anti-Trump, and therefore anti-Republican. The failure to solve the affordability problem (as felt and defined by the American people — not economists and government forecasting offices) has deeply eroded Mr. Trump’s support among people who voted for more money and less debt.The greatest problem of affordability is health care, and the Trump Administration’s steps have generally been in the right direction. Yet these efforts have been too scattered and lacking a unifying vision of an effective, affordable health system for everyone. So, the pain persists. The average American family of four will pay $27,000 for health insurance this year. This is one reason transparency should be a big issue.The immigration issue has moved from enormously in favor of Mr. Trump (when the administration focused on closing the border) to a mixed picture as it shifted focus to patrolling and operating in urban cities. Given the left’s energetic opposition to ICE and the propaganda press’s eagerness to paint ICE activities in the worst possible light, the administration must regain control of the situation — and the American people’s support.However, it’s important to note a bad winter does not guarantee a defeat 10 months later.In fact, you could argue that Mr. Trump and the Republicans will have a lot of advantages going into the fall campaign on underlying issues.Yet the Texas special election does remind us that a business-as-usual campaign will fail.Republicans need a dynamic campaign that attracts and arouses the American people while making the Democrats bear the cost of their policies and votes. With an effective campaign, beginning with the State of the Union this month, the Republicans can win — but only if they really think it through.The administration and the GOP must correct course and reconnect with the American people — otherwise 2026 will be a really tough year.

If the Midterm Elections Were Today, the Democrats Would Win

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