Will the Iranian people follow the Syrian example and topple their oppressors? If so, a liberated Iran could emerge as a more positive model than a jihadist-ruled Syria. 

For decades, Syria has forged symbiotic ties with the Islamic Republic even though, on the face of it, the two regimes are diametrically opposed to each other: The Damascus tyranny, headed by the Baathist Assad clan, was conceived in a secular pan-Arabist ideology; the Tehran tyrants are part of a theocracy that enforces Shiite piety on its people. 

The most powerful among the Syrian rebel groups that toppled President Assad over the weekend are striving to set up a Sharia-based regime. Like the mullahs of Iran’s 1980 revolution, the Syrian militants now promise moderation and inclusivity. 

That strategy seems designed to lure outsiders into cooperating with the new powers at Damascus. Indeed, Syria might eventually evolve into a pluralistic country after all. There are no guarantees, though, and Iranians who oppose their regime recognize a pattern. 

Unlike the Sharia-fueled Syrian uprising against a secular regime, Iranians increasingly yearn for a true secular-oriented democracy. They have “already gone through its Islamic phase,” an Iran watcher at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, Behnam Ben Taleblu, tells the Sun. Iranians have “gone through that dream and realized that the end of it was a nightmare.”

During the Assad regime’s rapid fall over the weekend, Tehran was unable to defend its ally. Tehran had been President Assad’s chief protector, alongside Russia, ever since his regime teetered in 2012, at the height of the Arab “spring.”

For decades Tehran cultivated militias across the Mideast, aiming to project regional might. Meanwhile, life inside that country crumbled. Inflation stands at 40 percent and it now takes more than 700,000 rials to buy $1, making the currency worth less than the paper it is printed on.   

“Khamenei’s regime doesn’t just oppress Iranians, it spreads its tyranny and terrorism across the region, from Syria to Iraq, Lebanon to Yemen,” a Brooklyn-based anti-regime activist, Masih Alinejad, writes on X. “Let us dance, sing, and raise our voices for a Syria free from dictatorship, and for the ultimate fall of every regime that thrives on terror and repression, including Khamenei’s regime.” 

The Islamic Republic is yet to fall, but the periods between the waves of anti-regime uprisings are shortening, Mr. Ben Taleblu says. Unrest is mostly triggered by internal events, but the toppling of Mr. Assad is now a factor too, he says: “It’s essentially zero sum. Anything that’s a setback for the Islamic Republic is a step forward for the population.”

Yet, he adds, the regime knows that its internal opponents will not cheer “a bearded guy yelling ‘God is great,’ who is taking over towns on trucks with AK-47s.” The mullahs use such images to warn the people of the chaos that could befall Iran if the mullahs are overthrown.  

The Syrian forces that toppled Mr. Assad are Wahabbi Sunnis steeped in the teachings of the Muslim Brotherhood’s global jihad. The best-organized militia, Hayyat Tahrir a-Sham, is a descendent of al Nousra, the Syrian chapter of al Qaeda, even though it now professes to only fight for Syria. 

The HTS leader, Ahmad Hussein al-Sharaa, who until now has been known by his nom-le-guerre, Abu Mohammed Joulani, is claiming that his organization supports pluralism and would refrain from harming minorities. He even vows to maintain good relations with all neighbors, including Israel.

Many in the region are wary, though. “A new Islamic empire is born; don’t feed it, starve it,“ a lecturer known as the “the Green Prince,” Mosab Hassan Yousef, advises. A son of a Hamas co-founder, Mr. Yousef defected and cooperated with Israeli intelligence agencies before moving to America, where he is a top commentator on Islamist movements. 

“The new generation of Jihadists is more sophisticated than any terrorist group in the past,” he writes on X. “They have patience and are not in a rush to attack their enemies; their new strategy is to build infrastructure, and institutions, and get global recognition towards establishing a Jihadi Ummah.”

America and our allies, Mr. Yousef writes, “should not legitimize the new rulers of Damascus, no matter how cleverly they are going to play their cards to manipulate the international community by appointing moderate government figures.”

Regardless, the fall of Mr. Assad marks a major shift of power in the region. It is a “direct result of the hard hits we inflicted on Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran,” Prime Minister Netanyahu said during a rare press conference at Tel Aviv Monday. “Iran has established an axis of terror from the Persian Gulf to the Mediterranean.” And while that axis is yet to disappear, he added, “we are changing the face of the Mideast.” 

The Islamic Republic could be the last domino to fall. If it does, the worst Mideast enemy of America and Israel could one day become our strongest ally.