Iranian Oil Wells Are Under Pressure, Intensifying an Economic Crisis

Washington officials say that the export blockade would force the Iranian regime to shut down oil wells in “days,” leading to an economic collapse and future complications. As Tehran counts on American capitulation, even a regime that prides itself for surviving under decades of sanctions might buckle under the current financial crisis. While it is hard to assess whether the regime’s supreme leader, Mujtaba Khamenei, is alive or dead, signs grow of inner turmoil inside the regime. The man who led the negotiations with America, parliament speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, has stepped down, Iran International reported Friday. On Tuesday President Trump cited regime “fracture” for his decision to extend a two-week ceasefire for three more weeks. “Don’t rush me,” he told a reporter who asked when the Iran war would end. Part of his confidence seems to rely on the regime’s growing economic crisis. The island of Kharg, where Iran stores 90 percent of crude for export, seems to be nearly full. A tanker designed to store up to 2 million oil barrels was observed on Thursday en route to Kharg. Observers noted the slow pace of The Very Large Crude Carrier Nasha as indication that it is brought out of retirement to address the storage crisis. “To prepare for the possibility of running out of oil storage space at Kharg Island, Iran has brought NASHA (9079107) out of retirement,” the website TankerTrackers.com, wrote on X on Thursday. “She’s a 30 yo VLCC that’s been anchored empty for the past few years; currently spending 4 days on a trip that should take 1.5–2 days.”The Department of Treasury’s “economic fury” policy and the naval blockade of Iranian ships and tankers seem to increase pressures on the Iranian regime. “In a matter of days, Kharg Island storage will be full and the fragile Iranian oil wells will be shut in,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent wrote on X Tuesday. “Constraining Iran’s maritime trade directly targets the regime’s primary revenue lifelines.”Shutting oil wells could hurt Iran’s future ability to produce oil for export. An inoperational well risks seepage of water, which would harm future pumping. Top producing oil fields like Ahvaz, Marun, and Gachsaran could suffer long-term structural damages. The Tehran regime, though, prides itself in its ability to withstand economic pressures. Shortages of everything mostly hit the Iranian masses. Hardships are felt less among members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, the Basij, and other groups the regime deems “essential.” As the crisis intensifies, though, even regime instruments might start feeling the pain, which could rattle the Islamic Republic from within. “We are still at the initial stage of the crisis,” an Iran scholar at Tel Aviv University’s Institute for National Security Studies, Beni Sabti, tells the Sun. “In a week or so we might see some surprises.”Many midlevel regime operators are loyal due to privileges, such as preference for their children in admissions to high education institutes, Mr. Sabti says. While Iran’s economy hinges on exporting crude products such as gasoline are largely imported. The blockade created shortages at gas stations, while prices at the pump are unaffordable. “IRGC types drive cars too,” Mr. Sabti says. In a sign that the regime is unsure how to address such crises, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi announced on Friday a trip to Islamabad to promote a diplomatic track with America. Mr. Ghalibaf, who led negotiations with America in the previous round, is being pushed out.Such squabbles could be overstated. The Islamic Republic has long used a facade of internal debate between “moderates” and “hardliners” in an attempt to force American negotiators for concessions. In the past, though, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was the ultimate decider. His word was final, which meant that widely-reported inner squabbles were overstated. Now, though, the status of his son and heir, Mujtaba, is hotly debated in western intelligence circles. Some in Israel’s security establishment believe that the younger Khamanei “is gone for good,” the reporter Amit Segal writes in his Substack account. The New York Times, though, claims that Mujtaba is on the mend. Even as his face is unrecognized and as he is being fitted with a leg prosthesis, he communicates with the rest of the regime factions through a chain of curriers.The Islamic Republic assumed that once it shut down the strait of Hormuz, Mr. Trump would end the war in humiliation. America believes that as the economic clock ticks, Iran would blink first.

Iranian Oil Wells Are Under Pressure, Intensifying an Economic Crisis

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