Johnson Eyes Return as Support for Tories Plummets

Echoing General Douglas MacArthur, BoJo has let it be known, “I will return.” If not at the command of 10 Downing Street, then at least serving with his comrades on the green benches of the House of Commons in the next Parliament. London’s Sun reports that former premier Boris Johnson has signaled his intentions to stand at the next general election, expected in either late 2024 or early 2025.Reading this news, I reflexively considered if Mr. Johnson continued to enjoy the support of his constituency association. Other MPs have fallen foul of the homefront. But if its chairman is any guide — and no one should assume that the executive necessarily speaks for the rank-and-file — BoJo still has friends in high places.“Uxbridge and South Ruislip Conservative Association fully support Boris Johnson as our local MP and candidate at any future election,” says Richard Mills. It remains to be seen if that support translates down to the unaffiliated conservative voters in the west London constituency.The Tories won an 80-seat majority in December 2019 on the strength of such independent support, picking up the votes of disenchanted Labourites in the fabled “Red Wall” of northern working-class England — who “lent their votes” to Boris and his pledge to “Get Brexit Done.”Now, with the shambles made of the Brexit promise, those Red Wall voters are reconsidering their allegiances for the next election. And, so it seems, are voters in Uxbridge and South Ruislip.Election Maps UK cites a recent polling survey, showing Labour leading the Conservatives in the riding, 55.3 percent to 31 percent — its local favorables increasing by 17.7 percent, with Tories falling by 21.6 percent — with Labour winning by possibly 11,676 votes.The Guardian, in its turn, is “anticipatory” of BoJo’s eventual comeuppance. That broadsheet quotes co-founder of the survey firm Deltapoll, Joe Twyman. “Uxbridge is going to be high on Labour’s target list next time around,” he observes.“We don’t know what impact Boris Johnson’s own reputation will have,” the pollster admits, though “there will be people who are more likely to vote for him than any other Conservative.”BoJo shouldn’t let this double-edged popularity go to his head. To wit, says Mr. Twyman: “I suspect they will be outnumbered by those who are particularly motivated to vote against him.”Nevertheless, Mr. Johnson clearly sees a return to No. 10 in his near future, hinting he will “rise again” and that he is simply on “temporary hiatus.” What fuels this flame of ambition, apart from any politician’s appetite for power?Boris’s bravado comes courtesy of the woes of current premier, Rishi Sunak — his “nemesis” whose resignation from the Johnson administration in July, BoJo (mistakenly) believes led the avalanche of deserters that forced his departure from Downing Street . . . how do I fault thee, let me count the ways.The Prime Minister de jour is sinking in the polls, courtesy of Chancellor Jeremy Hunt’s November financial statement that oversees a dramatic rise in tax rates. Not only are unappreciated wealth creators targeted. All are now in the Conservative Government’s crosshairs.One example suffices. The top marginal tax rate of 45 percent had been set at £150,000. Now, that threshold stands to be lowered to £125,140. In point of actual fact, thousands of ordinary, hard-working Britons will be adversely affected. On this score, at least, credit the Conservatives with transparency.Thanks to the stealth tax rise due to inflation, taxes are rising for everyone. Exhibit A, “Bracket creep.” Pay packets are slowly being adjusted upward to take into account the weakening value of the British pound; but tax rates, unfortunately for taxpayers, are not similarly indexed.These additional tax burdens are only the tip of the iceberg of Mr. Sunak’s worries. Immigration — both legal migrants and illegal Channel crossings — alongside energy supply security, are among his top headaches, headlining broadcasts of populist organizations like GB News.Meanwhile, the issue of woke culture versus traditional culture, and rising crime and general lawlessness of climate activists, challenge the sincerity of this “Conservative” administration.Stacked up against Mr. Sunak’s record, Boris must think he has a fair chance of reclimbing the “greasy pole.” Despite his failures in office, he is banking on the electoral success in 2019 and the general good feelings he engendered to make Conservatives think twice of Rishi Sunak leading them into the next general contest.But why such an early announcement of his intentions to remain a humble servant of the people? A boundary review will result in a subsequent reduction of seats in the House of Commons to 600 from 650. Preparing for the future, the party wants all current MPs to indicate their intentions before Monday. Already more than a dozen high-profile Tories have said they will stand down. Cynics may call this a decision to “jump rather than be pushed” out of electoral politics.All in all, BoJo is unfazed. “Mr. Johnson is evidently relatively optimistic,” British pollster Sir John Curtice suggests. “Either about his party’s chances of reducing Labour’s lead or at least about his own personal abilities to hang on to his seat, even against what might still prove to be a rather difficult nationwide time.”“Of course,” Sir John says, “Mr Johnson does have form as a rather successful electoral campaigner.” Success or failure, BoJo will continue to entertain, despite what may be in the best interests of his party and his country. Much as Nero fiddled as Rome burned.BrexitDiarist@gmail.com

Johnson Eyes Return as Support for Tories Plummets

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