Kentucky Derby Arrives With History, Heartbreak, and Change in the Air

As the 152nd Kentucky Derby arrives Saturday at Churchill Downs, horse racing’s most celebrated tradition is colliding with potential history in the making, a probable change in tradition and the absence of one of the sport’s towering figures. Renegade, an easy Arkansas Derby winner trained by Todd Pletcher, enters as the morning favorite at 4-1. But the colt’s bid for Derby glory comes with an immediate obstacle: the dreaded No.1 post position in the 20-horse field, a slot that hasn’t produced a Derby winner since Ferdinand in 1986.Mr. Pletcher, a two-time Kentucky Derby winner, suffered immediate anxiety when the draw was revealed during his flight to Louisville; “I reached for the air sickness bag,” he said half-jokingly.Starting from the rail poses a number of issues. With jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. aboard Renegade, Mr. Pletcher hopes those issues will be minimal. “They’ve got to be ready to be pushed around a little bit and take some kick back,” Mr. Pletcher said. “The good thing about Renegade is he has that turn of foot so that when Irad needs him to accelerate he can be there for him.”Renegade, Commandment (6-1), Further Ado (6-1) and Chief Wallabee (8-1) are the top contenders in what is being called a wide open Run for the Roses. Brad Cox trains both Commandment, the Florida Derby winner, and Further Ado, the Blue Grass Stakes champ.“They’re full of themselves,” Mr. Cox said of the two horses. “They’re enjoying the cool weather, and it looks like it’s going to be cool through Derby Day. They’re on their toes and I expect them to race their ‘A’ race. That’s what they’ve shown and I’m pretty confident in both of them.”Mr. Cox, who had a third horse Full Effort scratch due to injury, is seeking his first Derby win on the track after a delayed win in 2021, when Mandeloun was awarded the victory by default when Medina Spirit was disqualified months after the race.Bill Mott, who won the Kentucky Derby last year with Sovereignty, looks to go back-to-back with Chief Wallabee, who could wear blinkers in the race. “I think it might help him,” Mr. Mott said. “It might put him a little more forward. It seems to keep his mind on business.”Don’t overlook Puma (10-1), which lost the Florida Derby by a nose, and Litmus Test, a Bob Baffert entry that is an interesting long-shot at 30-1.The 2026 Kentucky Derby comes at a time when the horse racing industry is facing inner turmoil over the scheduling of the Triple Crown races. It’s also the first without D. Wayne Lukas. The Hall of Fame trainer passed away at age 89 last June due to complications from a blood infection.“I miss Wayne. I miss talking to him,” Mr. Baffert, a two-time Triple Crown-winning trainer, said. “The thing is, without him here, it’s a different little vibe.”Mr. Lukas won the Kentucky Derby four times, trailing only Mr. Baffert and Ben Jones for the most victories. He saddled 51 horses in the race from 1981 through last year, second only to Mr. Pletcher.“He recognized very early in his career that the Triple Crown races and the Breeders’ Cup races were what drives the industry and draws the owners to the game,” Mr. Pletcher said. “It won’t be the same without him, for sure.”The Triple Crown traditional schedule might see changes for the first time since 1969. Mr. Mott elected not to run Sovereignty in last year’s Preakness, which followed two weeks after the Derby, choosing health and safety over a chance to win the coveted Triple Crown. After Journalism won the 2025 Preakness, Sovereignty dominated the field to capture the Belmont Stakes.Trainers are growing more and more protective of their horses’ health by giving them ample rest between races. Only three entrants in this year’s Kentucky Derby have run on three weeks rest; none has done so in two weeks.There are suggestions that the Triple Crown races be spaced out, with the Kentucky Derby in May, the Preakness in June and the Belmont in July. But no decisions are imminent.“The Triple Crown, I think it’s fine the way it is,” Mr. Mott said. “But there’s so many things after. You’ve got some big purses; you’ve got some important races. And I think if you use those horses up in the Triple Crown, a lot of times they can’t make it to the end of the year.”Trainer Chad Brown, who has Emerging Market entered in the Derby this year, has won the Preakness twice with horses that did not run for the roses. He once favored the traditional scheduling but has had a change of heart.“It’s obvious the horses benefit from more time between the races,” Mr. Brown said. “Most change is uncomfortable, but is it better for the health of the horse? I’m more open to it now. I don’t see how we can’t change at some point.”Churchill Downs recently purchased the Preakness, but Pimlico Racetrack remains in control of its own scheduling.

Kentucky Derby Arrives With History, Heartbreak, and Change in the Air

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