For those who live in anticipation of the next great new Broadway musical, the 2025-6 theater season was a grim one. Commercial prospects for such shows continued to spiral, with “The Queen of Versailles,” an original outing by no less revered a composer/lyricist than “Wicked” creator Stephen Schwartz, closing early, leaving this year’s Tony Awards musical race dominated by yet another garish movie adaptation, “The Lost Boys,” and “Schmigadoon!,” a hodgepodge of references to older, better musicals, lifted from a TV series.Where plays are concerned, the news was better, with some terrific revivals, including works that had been around for a while but never produced on Broadway, joining provocative and engaging new entries. Our critic, a voter herself, looks at the more high-profile contests at this year’s ceremony, airing live from Radio City Music Hall tonight, and offers highly subjective takes on who should collect the prizes, along with predictions of who will.Best Play“The Balusters,” by David Lindsay-Abaire“Giant,” by Mark Rosenblatt“Liberation,” by Bess Wohl“Little Bear Ridge Road,” by Samuel D. HunterShould win: Mr. Hunter’s long overdue Broadway premiere had all the qualities that make him one of our greatest living playwrights, above all a bleak but burning humanism that’s expressed without affectation. But “Little Bear” ran only briefly on Broadway last fall so many voters will not have seen it.Will win: It’ll be neck and neck between “Giant,” a powerful and timely account of antisemitism, and “Liberation,” though Ms. Wohl’s earnest love letter to second-wave feminism, a critical favorite that just collected this year’s Pulitzer Prize, is a slightly better bet.Best Musical“The Lost Boys”“Schmigadoon!”“Titaníque”“Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)”Should/will win: “Schmigadoon!,” but purely by default — and ironically, since the show’s biggest asset is that it reminds us that great musicals once flourished in abundance on Broadway.The cast of ‘Schmigadoon!’ Matthew Murphy and Evan ZimmermanBest Book of a Musical“The Lost Boys,” by David Hornsby and Chris Hoch“Schmigadoon!” by Cinco Paul“Titaníque,” by Marla Mindelle, Constantine Rousouli and Tye Blue“Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York),” by Jim Barne and Kit BuchanShould/will win: “Schmigadoon!”’s glib, winking nods to Golden Age musicals were hardly enough to sustain two acts, but they’ll triumph over “Titaníque”’s witless camp and the other shows’ corn.Best Original Score (Music and/or Lyrics) Written for the Theatre“Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman”: Music by Caroline Shaw“August Wilson’s Joe Turner’s Come and Gone”: Music by Steve Bargonetti“The Lost Boys”: Music & Lyrics by The Rescues“Schmigadoon!”: Music & Lyrics by Cinco Paul“Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)”: Music & Lyrics by Jim Barne and Kit BuchanShould win: Mr. Bargonetti’s bluesy incidental music is more evocative and moving than the score of any musical here.Will win: Mr. Paul’s flimsy songs, though beautifully orchestrated by Doug Besterman and Mike Morris (also nominees) basically just imitate classic numbers from older shows, so “Schmigadoon!” will probably lose by a nose to “Two Strangers,” which at least features one or two fetching ballads.Best Revival of a Musical“Cats: The Jellicle Ball”“Ragtime”“Richard O’Brien’s The Rocky Horror Show”Should win: Each production was winning in its own way, but only “Jellicle Ball” took a show that has been a punchline for decades and turned it into a defiantly joyful celebration of resilience—not of the original “Cats,” but of the LGBT community.Will win: Lear deBessonet’s grand, reverent staging of “Ragtime,” a musical that’s not quite as transcendent as the stories and ideas running through it, is a critical and commercial smash and a sure thing here.Best Revival of a Play“Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman”“Becky Shaw”“Every Brilliant Thing”“Fallen Angels”“Oedipus”Should/will win: “Oedipus” was breathtaking, but more of an adaptation than a revival: Director Robert Icke, also a playwright, reimagined Sophocles’s classic as a contemporary political thriller. Joe Mantello’s superb, starry staging of Miller’s great American tragedy shows both imagination and reverence, and has been a huge hit with critics and audiences.Jake Silbermann and Nathan Lane in ‘Death of a Salesman.’ Emilio MadridBest Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a PlayWill Harrison, “Punch”Nathan Lane, “Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman”John Lithgow, “Giant”Daniel Radcliffe, “Every Brilliant Thing”Mark Strong, “Oedipus”Should/will win: It will be a close contest with Mr. Lane, already a four-time Tony winner, but Mr. Lithgow will earn his own third award for his robust, horrifying, deeply human portrait of Roald Dahl.Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a PlayRose Byrne, “Fallen Angels”Carrie Coon, “Bug”Susannah Flood, “Liberation”Lesley Manville, “Oedipus”Kelli O’Hara, “Fallen Angels”Should/will win: All are deservedly beloved and were terrific in their roles, but Ms. Manville, finally making her Broadway debut after winning an Olivier Award for her performance here, brought a combination of wit and fearlessness that was mesmerizing to watch.Rose Byrne and Kelli O’Hara in ‘Fallen Angels. Joan MarcusBest Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a MusicalNicholas Christopher, “Chess”Luke Evans, “Richard O’Brien’s The Rocky Horror Show”Joshua Henry, “Ragtime”Sam Tutty, “Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)”Brandon Uranowitz, “Ragtime”Should win: Though a veteran musical actor, Mr. Evans made a revelatory Broadway debut as a hilarious, disturbingly seductive, and ultimately poignant Frank-N-Furter.Will win: Mr. Henry has been nominated three times before and earned deserved acclaim in a powerhouse role.Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a MusicalSara Chase, “Schmigadoon!”Stephanie Hsu, “Richard O’Brien’s The Rocky Horror Show”Caissie Levy, “Ragtime”Marla Mindelle, “Titaníque”Christiani Pitts, “Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)”Should/will win: Ms. Levy is one of the most talented musical actresses working today, and she brought a discipline and elegance to her singing and acting that stood out in a staging that, however impressive, could seem overwrought at times.Best Direction of a PlayNicholas Hytner, “Giant”Robert Icke, “Oedipus”Kenny Leon, “The Balusters”Joe Mantello, “Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman”Whitney White, “Liberation”Should win: Mr. Icke’s creative input went beyond direction, which enabled him to bring a fresh, bold vision to a play that’s more than 2000 years old.Will win: See prediction for best play.Best Direction of a MusicalMichael Arden, “The Lost Boys”Lear deBessonet, “Ragtime”Christopher Gattelli, “Schmigadoon!”Tim Jackson, “Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)”Zhailon Levingston and Bill Rauch, “Cats: The Jellicle Ball”Should win: Messrs. Levingston and Rauch didn’t revive “Cats”; they reinvented and redeemed it.Will win: See prediction for best revival of a musical.Best ChoreographyChristopher Gattelli, “Schmigadoon!”Ellenore Scott, “Ragtime”Ani Taj, “Richard O’Brien’s The Rocky Horror Show”Omari Wiles and Arturo Lyons, “Cats: The Jellicle Ball”Lauren Yalango-Grant and Christopher Cree Grant, “The Lost Boys”Should/will win: Mr. Gattelli’s exuberant choreography was the best thing about “Schmigadoon!,” but he’ll be edged out by Messrs. Wiles and Lyons’ equally exhilarating and hipper work.
