Saudis Aim To Derail Iran Nuclear Deal With Oil Diplomacy

As Israeli politicians quarrel over how much influence they have, if any, when it comes to Washington’s efforts to renew the nuclear deal with Tehran, Saudi Arabia is launching a power play to prevent President Biden from easing Iran’s re-entry into global oil markets. The Saudi oil minister, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, caused a stir in oil markets earlier this week when he said during a Bloomberg News interview that OPEC must work to counter the “extreme volatility” of oil prices, including by “cutting production at any time and in different forms.” This led to rises in crude rates. While the prince refrained from mentioning Iran, his comment was widely interpreted as a shot across Washington’s bow as talk of reviving the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action heats up.Like the Israelis, the Saudis are concerned about the security ramifications of the deal’s renewal, but they are even more worried that removing the sanctions that have kept Iran out of oil markets could weaken them. At Jerusalem, meanwhile, a debate is heating up over Prime Minister Lapid’s strategy for dealing with Washington’s renewed drive to revive the JCPOA. Mr. Lapid, who aims to recapture the premiership in a national election scheduled for November, told reporters earlier this week that his intensive diplomatic efforts helped to “toughen up” Washington’s response to Iran’s most recent demands. The Mossad chief, David Barnea, was unswayed, telling reporters yesterday that Washington is “rushing into an accord that is ultimately based on lies,” and that the deal would be “very bad for Israel.”According to reports in the Hebrew-language press, Mr. Barnea’s briefing angered Mr. Lapid, as the remarks contradicted his contention that quiet diplomacy gets results. In Mr. Barnea’s view, as told to reporters, a bad deal is inevitable “in light of the needs of the U.S. and Iran.” As Jerusalem debates how much this week’s Washington meetings between Israel’s national security adviser, Eyal Hulata, and his American counterpart, Jacob Sullivan, have helped to shape the Biden administration’s thinking, the Saudis are hinting that they can hurt American politicians. By midweek, the price for a barrel of oil had climbed to more than $100 in the wake of Prince Abdulaziz’s comment about possible cuts in production. Following President Biden’s July visit at Jeddah, during which he attempted to mend fraught relations with the kingdom, crude rates dipped to just more than $90 a barrel, from $120 at the start of the summer. As a result, fears about costs at the pump subsided somewhat. In June, the national average for a gallon of gas at American stations was more than $5; this week it was just below $4, which is still more than $1 higher than last summer. The drop did help stem some inflation pressures, and gave Mr. Biden a boost politically. Polls show that the public’s confidence in Washington’s ability to stir the economy is on the rise.Now, a new hike in gas prices is bound to hurt the Democrats in the November midterm elections. Although not part of the proposed nuclear deal, the Saudis are indicating that they have the tools to influence it. While Riyadh has made some tentative diplomatic overtures to Tehran, it vehemently opposes renewal of the deal. So does Israel, and its officials say that they maintain the right to defend against a nuclear Iran outside of any agreement, even by using force.Yet, does anyone really have the power to influence Mr. Biden’s decision?“It remains unclear what changes, if any, Israel — or any other Middle Eastern partner of the U.S. — has gotten Washington to make with respect to the JCPOA,” an Iran watcher at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, Behnam Ben Taleblu, told the Sun.“The Saudis are underscoring to Biden that they intend to control oil prices, not let some deal with Iran cut prices by bringing Iranian oil on the market,” a former publisher of the Wall Street Journal who is a close watcher of the Saudi kingdom, Karen Elliott House, told the Sun. Mr. Biden may hope for a political boost from a deal that could be presented as a major victory in arms control diplomacy, but the Saudis could undercut his ambition: “My guess is that most Americans would rather have lower prices at the pump than a phony nuclear deal with Iran, whose determination to get a nuclear weapon is never going to change,” Ms. House said.

Saudis Aim To Derail Iran Nuclear Deal With Oil Diplomacy

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