Speaker Election Will Have Major Impact on Policy Priorities for the Next Year

As the nine Republicans running for speaker of the House prepare for a Monday night candidate forum, rank-and-file members — conservatives and moderates, firebrands and institutionalists — all see this as a moment to win significant concessions from whichever man hopes to win their support on the floor this week. The leadership vacuum atop the House Republican conference will ideally be filled by the end of this week, according to multiple members who spoke with The New York Sun. Yet then again, they have been saying that daily since the former speaker, Congressman Kevin McCarthy, was ousted from office 20 days ago. Policy and process are top-of-mind for both the famous and the little-known members of Congress who will decide if the speakership is, in fact, filled by Friday. The leading candidate at this moment is the no. 3 House Republican, the majority whip, Congressman Tom Emmer. He is a natural successor to Mr. McCarthy and to the majority leader, Congressman Steve Scalise, who previously won the speaker nomination but was forced out of the race by allies of Congressman Jim Jordan, another failed candidate for speaker.Mr. Emmer could be considered the most moderate member of the nine-candidate field. He broke from the majority of his conference to certify the Arizona and Pennsylvania results of the 2020 presidential election just hours after the January 6, 2021, Capitol riot. The Minnesota Republican also voted to codify same-sex marriage in federal law and expand accommodations for pregnant women in the workplace. As a member of House leadership, Mr. Emmer also was instrumental in the passage of two pieces of legislation widely despised by conservatives — the summer deal to increase the debt limit and the short-term funding agreement, which 90 GOP House members voted against. One fiscal hawk and ardent backer of Mr. Jordan, Congressman Thomas Massie, said on X that Mr. Emmer must provide a detailed strategy of how he plans to pass the remaining appropriations bills before the November 17 funding deadline. The Kentucky libertarian has always despised the way Republican leaders in the past waited until the last moment before the shutdown deadline to pass federal budgets as one item — known as an omnibus — rather than each of the 12 spending bills individually. “The question that all Speaker candidates must answer: What’s your plan to prevent an omnibus?” he asked on the social media platform. “McCarthy and Jordan both had plans that could’ve worked.” Before Mr. McCarthy was removed, the House was set to pass the remaining seven bills before the deadline, which was extended just hours before the government was set to shut down. While Mr. Emmer may start the race with an early lead, he may yet face a similar revolt before the House floor vote as Mr. Scalise did for his lack of clarity on how to avoid omnibus bills. More conservative choices from within the House GOP include the chairman of the largest caucus of conservatives, the Republican Study Committee, Congressman Kevin Hern, and a young Freedom Caucus member who already has the backing of key House leaders, Congressman Byron Donalds. Mr. Hern was plotting a run for speaker against Messrs. Scalise and Jordan shortly after Mr. McCarthy was removed but dropped out of the race after not seeing a path to victory. Once Mr. Scalise won the nomination for speaker, he then began a campaign for majority leader, though that ambition was also dashed when Mr. Scalise was rejected and said he would hold on to his current position. Mr. Hern’s potential speakership, though, could be a death knell for any bipartisan funding bills, which are the only kind of attainable legislation when the opposing party controls the Senate and the White House. On every major spending priority for House GOP leadership since they won the majority last year, Mr. Hern has been a consistent no-vote. Mr. Donalds — like Mr. Jordan — has excited both conservative activists and some influential legislators within the body. He has already won the endorsements of Congressmen Mario Diaz-Balart and Carlos Gimenez, the former a powerful chairman of an appropriations subcommittee and the latter a die-hard ally of Mr. McCarthy. Both men refused to vote for Mr. Jordan on the House floor during all three rounds of voting. Both of Mr. Emmer’s more conservative competitors would also have a significant impact on American foreign policy should they win the speakership. While the majority whip has supported tens of billions of dollars in aid to Ukraine in the past, Messrs. Hern and Donalds have both been fierce critics of funding the war. Mr. Donalds previously said during President Zelensky’s visit to Congress that “there’s no money in this House” for funding Ukraine. Other candidates running for the position include the vice chairman of the GOP conference, Congressman Mike Johnson, who has yet to win any public endorsements, and a lieutenant general in the Marine Corps who has already sewn up the support of the Michigan GOP delegation, Congressman Jack Bergman. Some lesser-known individuals running who have so far yet to see much public support materialize are Congressmen Pete Sessions, Austin Scott, Dan Meuser, and Gary Palmer.

Speaker Election Will Have Major Impact on Policy Priorities for the Next Year

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