Is Aaron Heilman the next Keith Foulke?

Merely asking the question is certain to provoke guffaws among Mets fans, who, during Wednesday night’s loss to the Phillies, watched Heilman enter a tie game in the seventh, hit Pat Burrell with the first pitch he threw, and proceed to give up five runs while recording only one out. But until then, Heilman had not given up a run in 12 relief appearances this year, and finally looked to have settled into a role as a useful major leaguer.

It’s not a good idea to make too much of 16 2/3 good innings, just as it’s not a good idea to make too much of one bad outing, but Heilman’s unusual effectiveness out of the pen demands notice. Not only have the results been there, but Heilman looks like a different pitcher than he did as a starter.

Though Heilman did show some promise during three effective April starts, this is essentially the first sign he’s given that he might have what it takes to be successful in the major leagues. Coming into this season his career ERA was 6.36. His minor-league record had some good and some bad to it, but given his poor performance in the majors, the bad – a 4.33 ERA in 25 Triple-A starts last year, for instance – seemed more telling.

All of this was more than disappointing for the Mets. Heilman was a first-round draft pick in both 2000, when the Twins picked him 31st, and in 2001,when the Mets picked him 18th. After a highly successful collegiate career at Notre Dame, Heilman was expected to reach the majors quickly and make an immediate impact.

Heilman did make an immediate impact upon his debut in 2003, though not the sort everyone had imagined he would – he went 2-7 with a 6.75 ERA, averaging less than five innings a start. He also provided an answer for anyone who had ever wondered what would happen if a right-handed starter with mediocre command, no breaking ball, and a straight 88-mph fastball were given a job as a major-league starter. Mets fans were understandably aggrieved: Scouting reports had touted a 94 mph fastball, a good slider, a developing split-finger, and fine command.

Last year saw not only subpar minor-league performance but five terrible starts with the Mets, during which he gave up 17 runs in 28 innings. It’s not much of a stretch to draw a line between Heilman’s failure to develop as a starter and the ridiculous deadline deals last year that brought in Victor Zambrano and Kris Benson.

I offer all this recent history not only to give context to Heilman’s recent success, but as a counterpoint to the occasionally insistent claims of Mets fans that he deserves a spot in the rotation. Perhaps he does; it might be better to take a chance with Heilman than with the proven mediocrity of Kazuhisa Ishii. But given his general ineffectiveness over a period of several years and his lack of a breaking pitch, it’s also a bit daft to argue that the Mets should shoehorn him into the rotation, especially when he’s finally succeeding in a role to which he seems well-suited.

Despite Wednesday’s meltdown, Heilman might be better suited to his new role than anyone thinks. The chart below compares Heilman’s minor-league numbers with those of Foulke, the Boston closer whose regular-season performance since 1999 compares to Mariano Rivera’s, and who ensured himself free drinks in New England for the rest of his life with a brilliant postseason last year.

Foulke had much better control, and that shows up in their ERAs, but the numbers are certainly quite comparable and match their similarity on the mound. As a minor-league starter in the Giants’ system, Foulke was effective despite having no good breaking pitch and throwing a fastball that rarely got above 90. But he did have a deceptive delivery, excellent control, and a devastating palmball, the same one he’s ridden to enormous success as a closer. Foulke never got the kind of extended opportunity to prove himself as a starter that Heilman has had, but in the few starts he did make he performed similarly:

Now take a look at Foulke’s career numbers as a reliever against Heilman’s numbers as a reliever this season. This is to be taken with a mine’s worth of salt, of course – Foulke is one of the best and most consistent pitchers of his generation, while Heilman has had a few nice games lately – but it’s notable that once again, the rate statistics in particular parallel one another quite nicely.

This makes a great deal of intuitive sense. Nearly all pitchers, when moved to the bullpen, pick up a few miles per hour on their fastballs because they don’t have to pace themselves. For two pitchers whose secondary offering is a changeup, that’s going to have an enormous impact, because the harder the fastball, the more effective the change becomes. Heilman’s change has nothing like Foulke’s movement, but since he went to the pen and returned to the threequarters arm slot he used in college, Heilman’s fastball has become a very nice pitch, getting as high as 94 on the gun while tailing and sinking. You can’t predict that someone will develop into Keith Foulke, but I think that Heilman has a chance to turn into a consistently dominant reliever.

Of course, much of the game is mental for a late-inning pitcher, and there’s just no way to know how Heilman will respond to games like Wednesday’s. Even Rivera has days like that, and the ability to ignore them and focus under pressure is much of what separates the likes of Foulke and Rivera from a bullpen scrub who’s happy to get a contract offer from the Devil Rays.

Still, given Heilman’s status at the end of last season, it’s a great development for the Mets that he is finally showing signs of developing into an elite pitcher. Sorting through players and failed prospects and seeing what’s there is exactly what the Mets should be doing this season; Mets management (and, of course, Heilman himself) should be given credit for putting him in a situation where he can succeed, not damned for holding him back from more four-inning, five-run starts.