Packers, Vikings Collide for NFC North

Only four teams in the NFC have winning records, and two of them will face off this weekend. The winner of the Packers-Vikings meeting will wake up the following morning to find a shiny new NFC North division title in its stocking. On Sunday, two games determine which 6-8 team (or teams) from the NFC South will emerge as the leader for the final playoff spot.GREEN BAY (8-6) AT MINNESOTA (8-6)In many ways, these two bitter rivals have become identical twins. Both teams have trouble on defense and feature power offenses with heroic quarterbacks, unsung linemen, and depth in the backfield. The Vikings have been the slightly better team running the ball this season; Green Bay will hope to counter this with run-stopping defensive tackle Grady Jackson.Two weeks ago, Detroit discovered that the Packers could be run on if Jackson was either double-teamed or avoided. In Green Bay’s 4-3 formation, Jackson generally is lined up on the left side of the offense, so the Lions just sealed him off. As a result, Kevin Jones gained 92 of his 156 yards running to the right side.Last week, Jacksonville tried the same strategy with less success, but they discovered the other weakness in Green Bay’s run defense: tackling past the front four. Of Fred Taylor’s 165 yards against the Packers, 119 came on just four runs. The Packers need linebacker Na’il Diggs, a strong tackler, to return from injury this week and help fix this deficiency. Minnesota’s Michael Bennett, back from injury, has a career average of 5.8 yards per carry against the Packers.When Minnesota has the ball, most of the attention focuses on receiver Randy Moss, who seems fully recovered from hamstring problems. But watch for Marcus Robinson and Kelly Campbell, as well as Antonio Chatman of the Packers, because both teams have thin secondaries that struggle against multiple-receiver sets.The Vikings and Packers rank second and third in the league behind St. Louis in per-play success by opposing third receivers. The Packers will probably double Moss and challenge Culpepper to beat them with throws to his other receivers, but that’s a challenge the Vikings can meet.Of course, the Vikings have to score plenty of points because they give up so many, and Green Bay shouldn’t have a problem spreading the ball around if the Vikings pay too much attention to emerging young star Javon Walker.In the end, this game may come down to Minnesota’s home field advantage. Since Brett Favre became the starter in Green Bay, the Packers are only 3-9 at the Metrodome. Over that span, Favre has averaged just 228 yards and less than two touchdowns per game.ATLANTA (11-3) AT NEW ORLEANS (6-8)In the blink of an eye and the twist of an ankle, Atlanta has gone from overrated team to NFC favorite. No other team this season has a greater disconnect between its win-loss record and its performance.According to Football Outsiders’ Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) ratings – which break down each play of the season and compare it to the NFL average based on situation and opponent – Atlanta is a league-average team despite 11 wins. Now, in the wake of Terrell Owens’s ankle injury, the Falcons look like favorites to advance to the Super Bowl.But as much luck as Atlanta has had this season, it cannot match the serendipity that has blessed New Orleans. The Saints were 4-8 two weeks ago, but have managed to climb back into the playoff race with wins over the uninspired Cowboys and the schizophrenic Buccaneers. Now they get to play a Falcons team that has nothing to play for.Locked into the second seed in the playoffs, the Falcons may sit both quarterback Michael Vick and tight end Alge Crumpler to help heal injuries. With running back T.J. Duckett and fullback Justin Griffith definitely out, the Saints will be facing an exhibition offense. True, Warrick Dunn, Atlanta’s other runner, enjoyed his best game of the season last week, and the Saints’ run defense is terrible. But if Atlanta’s passing game consists of rookie Matt Schaub and the league’s worst receiver corps, New Orleans will be free to load up the line to stop Dunn.It’s tempting to view the Saints as an inconsistent team, but nothing could be further from the truth. When you adjust each game’s performance for the strength of the opponent, they are the most consistent team in the NFC. They lose close games to good teams, they beat bad teams, and they never win big.CAROLINA (6-8) AT TAMPA BAY (6-8)The Panthers thought their dreams of going from 1-7 to the playoffs took a major hit when they lost to Atlanta in overtime last Saturday. But the next day, nearly every other team in the playoff race also lost, so Carolina still holds the advantage for the second wild card spot.DVOA ranks Carolina as the secondbest team in the NFC despite the loss. Right behind the Panthers and Falcons are the Buccaneers, ranked fourth in the NFC, and any difference between them and the Panthers is swallowed up by home field advantage.Like Green Bay and Minnesota, these two division rivals are very similar. Both teams are better against the pass than the run. That means each team’s defensive strength matches the other team’s offensive strength, because both teams are mediocre on the ground and have seen steady improvement from the passing game.In their first meeting, the Tampa Bay passing game won out over the Carolina defense. Brian Griese threw for 347 yards, but the Bucs lost 21-14 when Martin Grammatica (since replaced) missed three field goals. Tampa running back Michael Pittman gained 29 yards on the ground, but he caught eight passes for 134 yards and two scores.As for Carolina’s passing game, Mushin Muhammad is normally the focus of the Panther offense. But rookie Keary Colbert may be the one to watch in this one. Tampa fields the strongest defense in the league against no. 1 receivers; but those double teams tend to leave other receivers open, and Colbert caught two long touchdown passes against the Bucs three weeks ago.These are two of the NFL’s least consistent teams. Either team could crush the other if only one is having a good day. More likely, this game will be decided by a single great play, a precipitous bounce of the ball, or – like the first matchup – a botched kick.Mr. Schatz is the editor-in-chief of FootballOutsiders.com.

Packers, Vikings Collide for NFC North

Packers, Vikings Collide for NFC North

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