Two Wins From A Real Title Game
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Bowl Championship Series officials will be holding their collective breath on Saturday: They are two wins (by no. 1 USC and no. 2 Texas) away from a rare controversy-free title game pitting the Trojans and Longhorns in the Rose Bowl. USC has already clinched a BCS bid of some variety, while the Longhorns could still qualify despite a loss in the Big 12 championship.
In addition to the Big 12, the ACC and SEC will determine their automatic qualifiers to the BCS in championship games Saturday, with the winners joining West Virginia (Big East), Penn State (Big Ten) and USC (Pac-10). Notre Dame is all but assured of one at-large berth after finishing the regular season 9-2. Here’s a look at the games to watch this weekend:
COLORADO (7-4) VS. NO. 2 TEXAS (11-0)
Big 12 Championship at Houston, 1 p.m., ABC
In the BCS era, no team has hung around the periphery of the title game without having a chance to play in it as much as Texas has. But Mack Brown’s Longhorns have steamrolled through their schedule to arrive at this point: four-touchdown favorites in a game that would put them in the Rose Bowl.
Brown would be well served to rely on his short-term memory in this game. If he thinks back only to an October 15 rout of Colorado, he and his team will be full of confidence.Vince Young threw for a career-high 336 yards and two touchdowns and ran for another score in that game. On the other hand, Brown might want to avoid the film of the 2001 Big 12 title game.That night,Texas took the field against Colorado with a chance to play in the Rose Bowl for the national title, but got jumped early by the Buffaloes on the way to a 39-37 loss.
It would be a shock if this game were that competitive. Texas boasts a multidimensional offense built around a Heisman-contending quarterback and a stable of tailbacks led by Selvin Young that put up over 2,000 yards on the ground this season. Colorado stumbled into this game with back-to-back losses, the second a 30-3 pasting at the hands of Nebraska last Friday.
Colorado’s best hope is for Texas to revert to past form. But whereas the Longhorns used to fall apart in big games they’ve shown no signs of the jitters in big contests against Ohio State, Oklahoma, and Texas Tech (although they did struggle before putting Texas A&M away last week).
NO. 12 UCLA (9-1) VS. NO. 1 USC (11-0)
4:30 p.m., ABC
The Trojans face one final challenge before they can play for an unprecedented third-straight AP national championship and a second-straight BCS crown: their crosstown rivals.
USC has looked vulnerable at times, particularly on defense, but has found a way to answer every challenge in its path. It helps to have spectacular talent in the offensive backfield, where quarterback Matt Leinart and tailback Reggie Bush could be the first two picks in next April’s NFL draft. Each has rescued the Trojans at points this year. It was Leinart’s brilliant fourth-down pass and surprise QB sneak that stole a game at Notre Dame, and USC needed every one of Bush’s 513 all-purpose yards in a 50-42 thriller over Fresno State two weeks ago.
In UCLA, the Trojans will face an offensive juggernaut nearly as potent as its own. Quarterback Drew Olson and running back Maurice Drew lead an offense that scores 40 points per game, fifth-best in the nation.(USC ranks second, at 48.6 points per contest.) It’s probably safe to assume the Chevrolet players of this game will come from the offensive side.
USC has won six straight meetings against UCLA after dropping eight in a row to the Bruins during the 1990s. But UCLA came as close to knocking off USC as anyone during the Trojans’ current 33-game winning streak, falling 29-24 last year.
NO. 13 GEORGIA (9-2) VS. NO. 4 LSU (10-1)
SEC Championship at Atlanta, 6 p.m., CBS
LSU, largely forgotten in the national championship picture since a home loss to Tennessee in September, has a chance to clinch a return trip to Atlanta for the hurricanedisplaced Sugar Bowl. And should Texas or USC unexpectedly stumble, the Tigers could jump over BCS no. 3 Penn State to reach the Rose Bowl. It’s fitting that LSU could end its season playing in the Sugar Bowl. Hurricanes Katrina and Rita forced three LSU games to be rescheduled or moved, all while players dealt with displaced friends and loved ones, many of whom moved to LSU’s home city of Baton Rouge.
Much like Texas’s Vince Young, LSU quarterback JaMarcus Russell has made great strides as a passer this season, hitting on better than 60% of his throws and tossing at least one touchdown pass in his last nine games. Russell also has the support of a solid running game led by Joseph Addai and Justin Vincent.
LSU’s dominant defense has been a huge factor in the Tigers’ five victories by four or fewer points – the most recent a 19-17 triumph over Arkansas last week. Conversely, close losses are the only thing separating Georgia from national title contention: The Bulldogs dropped back-to-back games to Florida and Auburn by a total of five points.
Quarterback D.J. Shockley, who missed the Florida game, is healthy this week. He led the Bulldogs to a win over Georgia Tech two weeks ago with a late touchdown pass. Both teams rank in the top 15 nationally in scoring and total defense.
FLORIDA STATE (7-4) VS. NO. 5 VIRGINIA TECH (10-1)
ACC Championship at Jacksonville, 8 p.m., ABC
Virginia Tech, a national title contender until its home loss to Miami in early November, is looking to capture the ACC crown for the second time in its two years in the conference. A new wrinkle in the ACC rules requires the Hokies to win the league’s inaugural championship game, but that doesn’t look like a daunting task against a reeling Florida State team that has lost three straight games for the first time since the first Reagan administration.
After getting blown out by Florida last week, Seminoles coach Bobby Bowden desperately needs to keep this game competitive or he risks an off-season of questions about whether he should retire. It will be a tall order against the Hokies and their top-ranked pass defense, which could cause fits for FSU quarterback Drew Weatherford.
Virginia Tech has posted back-to-back routs since the Miami game by relying on defense and the running game, but quarterback Marcus Vick has struggled. The Hokies may be able to win this game without a superior effort from Vick, but their probable Orange Bowl matchup against Penn State could be a different matter.
Mr. Levine is a writer for FootballOutsiders.com.