Trump Appears To Be Early 2024 Favorite: Poll

The poll found that Trump is leading Biden in the general election race by three points, 44 percent to 41 percent.

AP/Seth Wenig
President Trump at the Bedminster Invitational LIV Golf tournament at Bedminster, New Jersey, July 28, 2022. AP/Seth Wenig

A new poll suggests that, while President Trump is consolidating his lead over Governor DeSantis in a hypothetical 2024 Republican presidential primary, he may also be gaining an advantage in the general election race.

The poll from Emerson College, released Tuesday, found that Mr. Trump is leading Mr. DeSantis by 55 percent to 29 percent if they were to face off in the Republican primary for the 2024 presidential election.

Also, Mr. Trump is leading President Biden in general election polling by three points, 44 percent to 41 percent, marking a three-point improvement in Mr. Trump’s support since the same pollster’s November survey.

This suggests that Mr. Trump may have consolidated support among the majority of Republican primary voters, having garnered 55 percent support from the primary electorate in every Emerson College poll since June.

Mr. Trump’s improved polling numbers come at the same time as Mr. Biden enjoys a resurgence in his approval rating, which rose to 44 percent in January from 39 percent in Emerson College’s November poll.

According to the executive director of Emerson College polling, Spencer Kimball, the president’s approval rating was driven by an increase in support among college graduates, both men and women, and independents.

“President Biden rebounded with independent voters this month: his 29 percent approval among independents in November increased to 38 percent in January,” Mr. Kimball said.

Emerson College is not the only pollster to identify this trend, with Morning Consult and Harvard Harris polling suggesting that Mr. Trump was leading Mr. Biden in a hypothetical general election battle.

While some have interpreted this change in polling to Mr. Biden’s ongoing classified document scandal, his improving approval numbers complicate that narrative.

As the Sun has reported, it’s not clear that the classified document scandal has changed many voters’ opinions of Mr. Biden, and the discovery of classified documents at Vice President Pence’s Indiana home could further water down the potency of the issue.

Another confounding variable is that Mr. Trump is the only major candidate who has officially announced he will be running in 2024, and polling could shift once Mr. Biden or Mr. DeSantis officially enter the race.


The New York Sun

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