Congresswoman Elise Stefanik is dropping her campaign for New York’s governorship and will not seek reelection to the House. Her withdrawal boosts Governor Kathy Hochul’s chances of holding Albany for Democrats and gives Republicans yet another open seat to defend — retirement neutralizing the advantage of incumbency.

In a post on X Friday afternoon, Ms. Stefanik wrote that she would “suspend” her gubernatorial campaign, which allows her to keep raising money and to pay staff. Although believing she’d “overwhelmingly” win the GOP primary, she said it wouldn’t be “an effective use of our time or your generous resources.”

Ms. Stefanik wrote that “while many know me as Congresswoman, my most important title is Mom.” She said that she’d feel “profound regret” if she didn’t “further focus” on the “safety, growth, and happiness” of her son, Sam, “particularly at his tender age” of 4 years old.

Republicans have been dreaming big about Ms. Stefanik’s future ever since she became the youngest woman ever elected to Congress in 2014, flipping a Democratic seat at 30 years old. She’s now the House Republican Conference Chairwoman, number three in leadership — another position that her party will have to fill.

Ms. Stefanik earned praise for her performance in December 2023 during House hearings on antisemitism at college campuses. After grilling the presidents of Harvard, MIT, and the University of Pennsylvania, Republicans fitted her with the cape of a superhero and touted her as the future of the party.

President Trump nominated Ms. Stefanik for ambassador to the UN after his election last year. But as the narrowness of the GOP’s House margin became clear, he withdrew her from consideration to avoid a special election to replace her. She was more valuable, he judged, advocating his agenda in Congress. 

Mr. Trump called Ms. Stefanik “a fantastic person” on Truth Social after her announcement and said she’s “a tremendous talent, regardless of what she does.” The president added that she’ll “have GREAT success” and he’s “with her all the way!” Not, however, all the way to Albany or seventh term on Capitol Hill.

As often happens with politicians dubbed rising stars, pundits and partisans imagined that Ms. Stefanik would rise as high as her ambitions aimed. In deep-blue New York, which she described as a “challenging state” on X, Republicans dared to dream that she’d break the 20-year Democratic hold on the governor’s mansion.

Now, Republicans will have to challenge Ms. Hochul without Ms. Stefanik’s star power. “This is disastrous for New York,” the nationally syndicated radio host, Mark Levin, posted on X after she bowed out of politics. “I believe Elise Stefanik is the best hope for the GOP to take the governorship.  And she’d be an outstanding governor.” 

The Republican path to holding the House majority, where they hold a seven-seat edge, also took a hit with Ms. Stefanik’s withdrawal. The party holding the White House always faces headwinds in the midterm elections, gaining seats only three times since 1934. 

Steepening the hill Republicans must climb, 24 of their House members had already said “no más” prior to Ms. Stefanik against 19 retiring Democrats. This looms large since the reelection rate for incumbents was 93.2 percent in 2022, 91 percent in 2018, and 95.4 percent in 2014. 

Even in the wave midterm elections of 1994 and 2010, House incumbents held on at 90 and 85.4 percent of the time respectively. Ms. Stefanik won New York’s 21st District with 59.1 percent to her opponent’s 40.8 percent in 2022. A fresh face means Republicans will have to expend more resources to hold the seat.

Who challenges Ms. Hochul for the GOP is up in the air as well. Ms. Stefanik didn’t endorse her primary opponent, the Nassau County executive, Bruce Blakeman, in her remarks on X. Her commanding presence may have kept other candidates from throwing hats in the ring; any entries now will further muddy the picture for the race.

In her X post, Ms. Stefanik thanked supporters for backing her “campaign to Save New York.” It’s a fight she has decided is no longer hers to wage, leaving Republicans in New York and Washington holding the cape — hoping they can find another hero who wears it as well.