Washington Sanctions Wagner, but It Is Unclear Whether Prigozhin or Putin Is Target

Doth America protest too much? President Biden is imposing new sanctions against the Wagner group mercenaries, perhaps trying to amplify his message that Washington had nothing to do with this weekend’s coup attempt led by the group’s boss, Yevgeny Prigozhin.Sanctions announcements are prepared months in advance. Yet, Tuesday’s statements from the state and treasury departments related to the Wagner group were likely rushed in order to signal to Moscow and the rest of the world that America wants nothing to do with the group behind the short-lived Russian coup. “When the U.S. does its designation, it is communicating to the international community that this is an organization we don’t do business with,” a former state department official who oversaw terrorism-related sanctions and is now a senior research fellow at the Soufan Center, Jason Blazakis, tells the Sun.“We made clear that we were not involved, we had nothing to do with it”: This was Mr. Biden’s first comment following Saturday’s coup attempt in Russia. The comment raised some eyebrows, as speculation that America was behind Mr. Prigozhin’s coup came mostly from unreliable political gadflies, or Kremlin propagandists who do not believe it themselves. Mr. Biden is “obsessed with this question of whether Putin thinks we are behind this,” a former White House official, now with the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, Richard Goldberg, tells the Sun. This week’s designation of Wagner, he adds, could have been timed to signal that “our policy is not regime change.” The Tuesday announcement was likely pushed up in order to address the new situation in Russia to address Mr. Prigozhin’s Saturday march on Moscow. The coup attempt, it is now reported, had wider support among Moscow insiders than first thought. The new sanctions target a major source of Wagner’s income: its dominance in mining of commodities like gold in the Central African Republic, Mali, and other countries on the continent. Those commodities help pay salaries of the group’s mercenaries, and likely also beef up accounts controlled by Mr. Prigozhin. On Tuesday, Mr. Putin reversed past denials that Russia is behind Wagner’s activities around the world. Now the Russian president says the mercenary group has long been “completely financed” by the Russian state, to the tune of $1 billion in payments between May 2022 and May 2023, as well as millions of dollars in insurance and other incidentals. In his about-face, Mr. Putin may have attempted to signal to Wagner members that their income could be cut off unless they remain loyal to him. Nevertheless, profits from gold mining in Africa may end up in various companies directly controlled by Mr. Prigozhin. That could also explain another mystery: why is a man who has so brazenly challenged Mr. Putin’s authority remains at large or, indeed, alive. “Prigozhin is no dummy,” the Soufan group’s Mr. Blazakis says. “He knows he remains valuable because he alone understands the web of Wagner enterprises in Africa — and that once he provides the golden keys, he may become less valuable.” That could also be the reason America is now seizing on Wagner’s assets. In a multi-agency advisory issued Tuesday, Washington is warning anyone who deals with gold from Africa “to adopt and apply strengthened due diligence practices to ensure that malign actors, such as the Wagner Group, are unable to exploit and benefit from the sector, which remains essential to the livelihoods of millions of people across the continent.”Separately, the Biden administration announced the designation and sanctioning of entities and individuals active in the Central African Republic and Mali. In a statement, Secretary Blinken said Wagner has used its operations there “both to obtain revenue for the group and its owner, Yevgeniy Prigozhin, as well as to procure weapons and equipment to further its involvement in hostilities in Ukraine.”While sanctions may help, they are unlikely to cut off Wagner’s — and Mr. Prigozhin’s — most important independent sources of income. The struggle between Messrs. Putin and Prigozhin for control over the mercenary group will likely intensify, as the latter knows his life depends on it. Wagner has committed unspeakable atrocities in Syria, Africa, Latin America, and, most recently, Ukraine. In January, Washington designated it a transnational criminal organization. Members of Congress, as well as think tanks like the Soufan group, have called to designate Wagner a terror group, which mandates severe sanctions. The Kremlin is unlikely to discard the group, which remains valuable for Russia in its global battles. Mr. Putin, as he struggles to take it over, will first need to sort out Wagner’s complex financial enterprises, the secrets of which are mostly known to Mr. Prigozhin only. America should have designated Wagner as a terror group a long time ago, the FDD’s Mr. Goldberg says. Currently, “it is unclear who is going to have command and control” over the group, he adds. “So are we sanctioning Prigozhin, or are we sanctioning Putin?”

Washington Sanctions Wagner, but It Is Unclear Whether Prigozhin or Putin Is Target

Washington Sanctions Wagner, but It Is Unclear Whether Prigozhin or Putin Is Target

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