Will Iranian Attacks Against Gulf States Reshape Regional Alliances?

As energy becomes a top feature of the Iran war, Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states are turning against the Islamic Republic. Will their expressed anger translate into action?In a joint statement issued at the end of a summit today of Gulf ministers and others, Arabs called on Iran to halt immediately its attacks. Riyadh now says that Saudi Arabia “reserves the right” to hit Iran militarily if it continues striking oil and gas fields in the area. Israel and America are coordinated in the Epic Fury air battle, so one question is what can be contributed to the war efforts by inadequately-trained pilots from the Gulf. There is no need for the Saudis to “insert themselves into what are already very crowded skies with American and Israeli fighter jets, not to mention refueling and satellites and AWACS,” the executive director at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, Jonathan Schanzer, tells the Sun.Riyadh, though, can contribute by leaning on the Houthis in Yemen to continue sitting out the war, Mr. Schanzer says. The Houthis have so far refrained from reimposing their blockade of the Red Sea. The Saudis and Emiraties are piping oil to there from their refineries in the east. A closure of that vital waterway would amplify Iran’s de-facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which has wreaked havoc on global energy markets.Tehran’s war strategy increasingly focuses on the disruption of global energy supplies. Following an Israeli strike on Iran’s South Pars gas field on Wednesday, the Islamic Republic attacked its neighbors’ oil and gas installations. Those included drone and missile attacks on Qatar, which shares a gas field with Iran.On Truth Social President Trump threatened Iran with “an amount of strength and power that Iran has never seen or witnessed before” if it repeats attacking Qatar. For the first time since the start of the war, though, Mr. Trump also distanced himself from Israel. Israel’s Wednesday attack was done “out of anger for what has taken place in the Middle East,” Mr. Trump wrote on Truth Social. While the Israeli Defense Forces spokesman and other officials at Jerusalem and Washington said that the South Pars strike was coordinated with America, Mr. Trump contended America “knew nothing about this particular attack.” At the White House, Mr. Trump said that he told Prime Minister Benjamin Netanayhu “don’t do that” again. America and Israel “get along great” but “on occasion he’ll do something, and if I don’t like it, we’re not doing that,” he said. “We have objectives” and “we have allies pursuing objectives as well,” Secretary of War Pete Hegseth told reporters on Thursday. Iran, he said, “has weaponized energy for decades. Israel clearly sent a warning.”By distancing himself from Israel, Mr. Trump might have attempted to blunt Arab criticism that America’s partner is the cause of Gulf states’ predicament. “Everyone knows who the main beneficiary of this war is” and who is “dragging the whole region into this conflict,” the Qatari prime minister, Mohammed al-Thani said Thursday, referring to Israel.At the same time, though, anger at Iran in the Gulf overshadows the traditional anti-Israel sentiment. Following Iranian missile and drone attacks on Qatar’s gas field, which is the country’s economic lifeline, Doha ordered all Tehran diplomats there to leave. Iran, with its “aggression,” had “destroyed” Qatar’s trust, Mr. al-Thani said. “This pressure from Iran will backfire politically and morally, and certainly we reserve the right to take military actions if deemed necessary,” the Saudi foreign minister, Faisal bin Farhan, added. Before the region was thrown into turmoil on October 7, 2003, Riyadh and Tehran had entered into a Beijing-brokered secret pact: The Iran-backed Houthis would end striking Saudi targets while the Saudis would moderate press and other public attacks of Iran. Now, Mr. Schanzer says, “the Islamic Republic has violated the terms of that agreement, and then some,” so “it might be that all bets are off.”Would the recognition that the Iranian regime is the region’s top threat get the Saudis and other Gulf states off the fence and solidify a regional American-led coalition? Could it even lead to a widening of the Abraham Accords? For that to happen, the Iran war must first be won. “We need to see a change in the strength and posture of the Islamic Republic or a complete evisceration of it,” Mr. Schanzer says. “And that will open the door to a new Middle East.”

Will Iranian Attacks Against Gulf States Reshape Regional Alliances?

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