Battle for the Senate: The 10 Races That Will Define the 2026 Midterms

Control of the United States Senate in 2027 will hinge on less than a dozen competitive races spread across a map that largely favors Republicans, but Democrats say the political environment is shifting in their direction.Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority, meaning Democrats must net four seats to reclaim control. With Vice President JD Vance serving as a potential tiebreaker, the math is straightforward. The path, however, is anything but.Of the 35 seats on the ballot in the mid-term elections, Democrats have just one fairly solid pickup opportunity in a state Kamala Harris carried in 2024 — Maine — while simultaneously defending two seats in states President Trump won. The party is banking on souring voter sentiment toward Mr. Trump, particularly on rising gas and grocery prices, to open up more pickup possibilities.Here is a closer look at 10 key Senate races that will likely determine which party controls the chamber come January 2027.The four true tossups:GeorgiaDemocratic Senator Jon Ossoff is running for reelection in a state Mr. Trump carried in 2024 — making him the only Democratic incumbent defending a Trump-won seat. First elected in a 2021 runoff, Mr. Ossoff has positioned himself as a strong fundraiser and has leaned into voter frustration with Mr. Trump’s handling of the economy and healthcare.Republicans are locked in a contested primary between Congressmen Buddy Carter and Mike Collins and former University of Tennessee football coach Derek Dooley, who has secured the backing of Governor Brian Kemp. Mr. Trump has yet to weigh in on the race, though all GOP candidates have aligned themselves closely with the president’s agenda.MaineSenator Susan Collins, 73, a moderate Republican who has served five terms, remains a perennial Democratic target in a state that has voted against Mr. Trump in all three of his presidential campaigns. Ms. Collins has occasionally broken with the president — opposing his sweeping domestic agenda bill and a recent war powers vote — prompting Mr. Trump to publicly declare she “should never be re-elected.” Yet she has supported him on a majority of his Cabinet picks and Supreme Court nominations.The Senate Leadership Fund, aligned with Majority Leader John Thune, has pledged an initial $42 million to protect Ms. Collins’ seat.On the Democratic side, 78-year-old Governor Janet Mills faces a primary challenge from 41-year-old Graham Platner, a progressive oyster farmer and combat veteran. Ms. Mills — a popular figure with multiple statewide wins — has pledged to serve only one term if elected, which would make her the oldest freshman senator in American history. Mr. Platner has energized progressive voters but faces scrutiny over past controversial online posts and a tattoo with imagery resembling Nazi symbolism.MichiganMichigan represents one of the most closely watched Senate primaries of the cycle. The retirement of Senator Gary Peters triggered a three-way Democratic contest between progressive Abdul El-Sayed, state Senator Mallory McMorrow, and moderate Representative Haley Stevens, who is seen as the establishment favorite.Republicans are rallying behind former Congressman Mike Rogers, who lost the 2024 Senate race but secured Mr. Trump’s endorsement and cleared the field early. Democrats view Mr. Rogers as a retread candidate and remain confident the party will unite after what could be a bruising primary extending into August.North CarolinaDemocrats see North Carolina as one of their strongest pickup opportunities following GOP Senator Thom Tillis’ decision not to seek reelection. Former Governor Roy Cooper, who served two terms and left office with strong approval ratings, is their candidate. A skilled fundraiser, Mr. Cooper championed healthcare access expansion during his tenure — an issue Democrats are prioritizing heading into the midterms.On the Republican side, former Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley, who carries Mr. Trump’s endorsement, won the GOP primary earlier this month.Leaning one way, but worth watching:AlaskaDemocrats landed a high-profile recruit in former Congresswoman Mary Peltola, who made history in 2022 as the first Democrat to win statewide in Alaska in over a decade. Though she lost her reelection bid in 2024, Democrats believe her moderate profile and “fish, family and freedom” message can put the seat in play against GOP Senator Dan Sullivan.The challenge is steep. Mr. Trump carried the state by double digits in all three of his presidential runs, and Senator Lisa Murkowski — another moderate Republican who had crossed party lines to back Mr. Peltola in past House races — has endorsed Mr. Sullivan.OhioFormer Senator Sherrod Brown is attempting a political comeback after losing his 2024 reelection bid. Despite that loss, Mr. Brown, a Democrat, significantly outperformed Ms. Harris in Ohio and has a track record of winning difficult races by appealing to working-class voters on economic issues.Mr. Brown will face a rightward-trending electorate and GOP Senator Jon Husted, who was appointed to fill the seat vacated by Mr. Vance and is seeking a full six-year term.IowaCongresswoman Ashley Hinson enters as the Republican favorite to hold Iowa following Senator Joni Ernst’s retirement. Ms. Hinson, a former television newscaster who flipped Iowa’s 2nd Congressional District in 2020, has already consolidated Republican support, including an endorsement from Mr. Trump.Democrats see an opening, pointing to the potential impact of Mr. Trump’s trade and tariff policies on the state’s farming communities and to strong performances in recent special elections. Their primary field includes Marine veteran Nathan Sage, two-time Paralympic gold medalist and state Representative Josh Turek, and state Senator Zach Wahls.TexasTexas may only become truly competitive depending on which Republican emerges from a volatile primary in May. Longtime Senator John Cornyn faces challenges from state Attorney General Ken Paxton and Congresswoman Wesley Hunt, with Mr. Trump yet to endorse in the race despite saying recently he would give it “a serious look.”Democrats — and some Republicans — believe a Paxton nomination would significantly open up the general election given his record of legal controversies. On the Democrats’ side, Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett, a 44-year-old civil rights attorney, recently lost a primary to state Representative James Talarico, a 36-year-old former teacher and Presbyterian seminarian seeking to win over independents and Republicans alienated by Mr. Trump.New HampshireDemocrats are optimistic about holding this seat despite Senator Jeanne Shaheen’s retirement, pointing to Congressman Chris Pappas as a battle-tested candidate who has won competitive races before.Republicans believe they have an opening with former Sen. John E. Sununu, who has been out of office since 2009, and is facing a primary against former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown. Mr. Trump’s recent endorsement of Mr. Sununu could prove decisive in the primary.MinnesotaMinnesota has become a flashpoint for Mr. Trump’s immigration enforcement operations following the fatal shooting of two protesters in Minneapolis by federal agents — a development that has thrust the state’s Senate race into the national spotlight.Senator Tina Smith’s retirement opens another seat Democrats must defend. The party is confident the state will remain blue but faces an internal ideological test between progressive Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan, endorsed by Ms. Smith, and moderate Congresswoman Angie Craig. Republicans are eyeing an upset, with former sportscaster Michele Tafoya’s candidacy generating enthusiasm on the right. Ms. Harris won Minnesota by just four points in 2024.While the battle will be close, the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, which has been fairly accurate in past election projections, predicts Republicans will hold 51 seats after the mid-terms, with only Michigan, North Carolina and Maine considered true “toss-ups.”

Battle for the Senate: The 10 Races That Will Define the 2026 Midterms

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