Federal Reserve’s ‘Beige Book’ Does Not Indicate Recession

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WASHINGTON — In its regular round-up of reports from individual districts released yesterday, the American Federal Reserve offered no sign of impending recession but one of a “slower pace” of growth compared with the previous period.

That appears at odds with recent retail sales and employment data and comments by the chairman of the Federal Reserve, Ben Bernanke, signaling growing worries about the economy.

Economic activity “increased modestly during the survey period of mid-November through December, but at a slower pace compared with the previous survey period,” the Fed said in its Beige Book report, a summary of activity prepared for the January 29–30 Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

The report was compiled by the Atlanta Fed. The survey period ended January 7.

The Beige Book “paints a slightly different view of the economy” than some economic data showing a more pronounced slowdown at the end of last year, an economist at Lehman Brothers, Drew Matus, said in a research note.

Still, the FOMC is widely expected to lower official interest rates by one-half percentage point this month. Last week, Mr. Bernanke pledged “substantive” rate cuts if needed to support the economy, whose downside risks he said “have become more pronounced.” There was little indication in the Beige Book that the economy is in dire need of stimulus. To be sure, holiday sales “were generally disappointing,” according to the Beige Book — an assessment supported by Tuesday’s report of a decline in December retail sales. Housing, meanwhile, “remained quite weak through year-end,” and “contacts anticipate that housing markets will remain weak during the first part of 2008.” Commercial building is also expected to slow this year, the Fed said.


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