International energy tracker Robert Berke is really going against the grain. He’s convinced that America and Iran will resolve their differences before the November elections, leading to a precipitous drop in the price of oil. It’s a scenario he’s conveying to institutional investors both in America and abroad.

In line with his scenario, he looks for oil — which has fallen a bit from its recent high of more than $78 a barrel, to about $74 — to plunge to around $50 by October. Accelerating the drop, he figures, will be a dramatic decline in the terrorist premium, currently $10 to $15 a barrel. This is a change of heart for Mr. Berke, who about eight months ago was predicting $80 to $100 oil.

Mr. Berke, an energy adviser to liquidity tracker TrimTabs Research of Santa Rosa, Calif., observes that according to Stratfor.com, a widely respected source of “insider intelligence,” American-Iranian talks are believed to be well advanced and have been ongoing for some time. It says the results could well mean a titanic shift in the tectonic plates of global politics. Mr. Berke, who has tracked the global energy scene for more than 10 years, points out that both America and Iran have much more to gain than lose in terms of national interests by adopting the so-called Lybian agreement — that is, swapping terrorism and nuclear ambitions for security, trade, and lifting of sanctions, a deal that would finally lift Iran’s isolation and start an enormous flow of Western investment.

Although the American-Iranian talks are likely to be frustrating, volatile, and drawn out, the outcome is virtually guaranteed, as is the likely timetable, Mr. Berke says.

For those who argue that an American agreement with an untrustworthy Iran is a fairy tale expectation, Mr. Berke points out that in 2003, after America’s quick and decisive military victory in Iraq, Iran, fearful it was next on the list for regime change, reportedly made a secret offer to America in which it was ready to agree to give up nuclear aspirations, renounce terrorism, and recognize Israel in exchange for a security pact. America, riding high at the moment, refused to respond on grounds that an Iranian-American accommodation would be a reward to an avowed terrorist nation.

The period just before the November election, Mr. Berke says, would be the optimum time for Iran to extract the best deal it will ever get from the politically weakened and faltering Bush team, which desperately needs some resolution on Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Such a deal, he says, also could spell a dramatic reversal for the president and his party’s political fortunes.

Suppose he’s dead wrong and Iran refuses to cave in? What then? While he says he feels pretty strongly this will not be the case, Mr. Berke believes the president’s attitude would then harden, leading to an eventual attack on Iran from the West. (The general view on Wall Street is that such an event would quickly push oil to $100 a barrel, if not higher).

What about the dogged refusal of Russia and China to get tough with Iran? Mr. Berke says he believes that when push comes to shove, neither would be willing to jeopardize its extensive trade with the West to placate the Iranians. He also points to recent press reports that Russia is considering supporting U.N. sanctions against Iran.

Although he expects oil to stabilize at lower prices, Mr. Berke views the energy sector as a solid long-term investment because demand from China, India, and others is not going away. Likewise, he points out, cheap crude is gone and oil companies can still make plenty of profit with oil in the $50 range.

From an investment standpoint, he expects the big energy winners to be in Russia, a country he says possesses some of the world’s cheapest energy plays. His best bets — two stocks he owns personally — are Lukoil ($85) and Gazprom ($40), Russia’s largest oil and gas companies, respectively.

Domestically, he favors Conoco Phillips ($65.82), which owns nearly 20% of Lukoil, and Chevron Corp. ($65.54), which has several projects going in Russia.

Mr. Berke’s says his projection for a sharp drop in the price of oil spells bad news for alternative fuels, which, he feels, will find it much more difficult to remain price-competitive.As a result, he says he believes Colorado oil shale projects will completely disappear, Canadian tar sands — with their recent huge cost overruns — will be especially hard hit, and investors in clean coal and ethanol are likely to take their lumps.

dandordan@aol.com