Some of our readers here in New York may be wondering why we’ve devoted so much space and effort over the past weeks to coverage of the gubernatorial race in California. Anyone misguided enough to live out on the Coast, this line of reasoning goes, deserves whatever action-adventure movie passes for politics out there. However bad the Golden State’s fiscal situation and however doubtful the prospects that a bodybuilder-turned-actor can turn it around, most of the state’s residents spend most of their time worrying about the surf and the sun, this line of reason ing goes. The skeptics say the California recall is about as relevant to New York as a change of governments in, say, Australia, to name another place known for its surfing and chardonnay.

Well, this is being written as the election results weren’t yet final. But the exit polls showed broad support for both the recall of California’s Democratic governor, Gray Davis, and the campaign to replace him with a Republican, Arnold Schwarzenegger, who campaigned on a platform of cutting state spending and overturning the recent increase in the car tax. Some early exit-poll results showed fully 60% of California voters backing either Mr. Schwarzenegger or another even more conservative Republican, state Senator Tom McClintock.

With respect to both the nation and for New York, the portents for the 2004 election are significant. California, after all, has trended Democratic in recent national elections. It has two Democratic senators. A Republican hasn’t carried it in a presidential election since George H.W. Bush in 1988. The last Republican governor was Pete Wilson, who left office in early 1999. If this many voters turn out to support a Republican-led recall effort and a Republican candidate in 2003, it just may be possible for President George W. Bush to carry the state and its 55 electoral votes for the Republicans in 2004. It’s hard to imagine any Democrat being elected president without carrying California.

To the argument that the 2003 results may be transferable to 2004, add the fact that virtually every high-profile national Democratic figure helped the anti-recall effort in the past few months. Vice President Gore taped a voice-mail message. President Clinton campaigned in person. Howard Dean made a trip to the state. Senators Lieberman and Kerry campaigned with Mr. Davis against the recall. None of them appears to have had much power over the California electorate.

Finally, there’s the resounding sense that the electorate refuses to care about or even believe what the liberal press thinks it should care about and believe — in this case, Mr. Schwarzenegger’s apparently disgusting behavior toward women.

While those signs are encouraging to Republicans, it’s probably a little early to sign up for the Bush 2004 victory celebration. The presidential election may focus to a large degree on national security issues, which voters weren’t taking into account when choosing a governor. And the “throw the bum out” anti-incumbent rage that helped oust Mr. Davis has the potential, at least in theory, to be channeled against Mr. Bush as well, particularly if the president’s 2004 opponent is someone like Governor Dean. The erstwhile governor of the Green Mountain State could run against Washington politicians and politics-as-usual the same way that Mr. Schwarzenegger ran against Sacramento politicians and politics-as-usual — indeed, he already is.

As for New York, our fiscal woes aren’t as bad as California’s, and Governor Pataki has lately been for the most part standing his ground against tax increases rather than suggesting them. But New Yorkers, too, have an entrenched group of free-spending, tax-raising politicians in our state capital. A small group of Californians put their money and prestige on the line, risking the nation’s ridicule by undertaking an unusual, popular effort to throw a symbol of tax-and-spend leadership out of office. Some New Yorkers may deride them, as if the recall advocates were a bunch of Aussies or Hollywood dilettantes. But imagine if a group of New Yorkers were to emerge like the leaders in California and bring to Albany the winds of political change that yesterday swept California. It’s not hard to imagine voters in the Empire State embracing such an effort. And we wouldn’t even need a recall election — the whole state Legislature is up for re-election next year.