Al Qaeda Allies in the Dark About Terror Group’s Plans

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CAIRO, Egypt — Judging by hundreds of questions submitted online to Al Qaeda’s no. 2 leader, it is clear the terror network’s self-proclaimed supporters are as much in the dark about its operations and plans as Western analysts and intelligence agencies.

Among their concerns: Where will it strike next? Does it control small militant groups in the Middle East and Europe? Why hasn’t it hit America again?

Al Qaeda’s press arm, Al-Sahab, announced last month that Osama bin Laden’s deputy, Ayman al-Zawahri, would take questions from the public in an “online interview.” More than 900 entries, some with multiple questions, were posted on a militant Web site before the January 16 deadline.

So far, Al Qaeda hasn’t given any answers. Al Qaeda said only that Mr. Zawahri would respond “as soon as possible,” and the questions disappeared from the site after the cutoff date without any response.

Like many in the West, the questioners appear uncertain whether Al Qaeda’s central leadership directly controls the multiple, small militant groups around the Middle East and Europe that work in its name, or whether those groups operate on their own.

Others queries sought advice: Should followers be focusing their jihad, or holy war, against Arab regimes, or against Americans?

Some wanted to know when Al Qaeda will be more active in Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Syria?

One, allegedly a former Arab Al Qaeda fighter in Iraq, complained about Iraqi fighters discriminating against non-Iraqi mujahedeen.

Journalists also were invited to send questions, and a few of the entries were labeled with the names of European and Asian newspapers.

Diaa Rashwan, an Egyptian security expert in Cairo, suggested some questions were probably submitted by intelligence agents looking for clues to Al Qaeda’s thinking, but there was no way to verify that.

The vast majority of questioners, identified only by their computer usernames, appeared to be supporters of Al Qaeda or the jihadi cause, often expressing praise for “our beloved sheik” and “the lion of jihad, Sheik Osama.”

Many appeared frustrated that Al Qaeda is not doing more.

“When we will see the men of Al Qaeda waging holy war in Palestine? Because frankly our situation has become very bad,” one wrote, with the username “Seeking the Path.” “As for Al Qaeda in Saudi Arabia,” he asked, “are there efforts to revive jihadi action there after the blows that hurt us?”

Another, signed “Osama the Lion,” asked: “Why doesn’t Al Qaeda open a front in Egypt, where there are wide opportunities and fertile ground for drawing in mujahedeen?”

Another, called “Knight of Islam,” asked, “We are awaiting a strike against American soil. Why has that not been done? Why are the Jews in the world not struck?” In videos over the past years, Mr. Zawahri has repeatedly spoken of opening new fronts against all those lands — but little has occurred. Saudi Arabia has waged a fierce crackdown that has killed or captured many in Al Qaeda’s branch there. In 2005, Mr. Zawahri announced the formation of a branch in his homeland, Egypt, but nothing has been heard of it, although Egypt has suffered terror attacks.

In his videos, Mr. Zawahri always depicts Al Qaeda as moving steadily toward victory — something none of the questioners directly challenged. But they seemed in need of reassurance, pressing for more specifics about Al Qaeda’s plans than Mr. Zawahri normally gives.

“I think they [Al Qaeda’s leaders] were aware [that] … everyone was no longer buying into the propaganda about how great they are,” Jeremy Binnie at Jane’s Terrorism and Insurgency Center said. “This was put forward as a propaganda exercise and to make it look like they are responding to these concerns.”

A few who wrote in claimed to be active fighters in militant groups. One, with the username “Phenixshadow,” described himself as a member of the Al Qaeda branch in North Africa that has been blamed for attacks in Algeria.

“What do you expect from us? Should we follow the instruction of the mother organization to target the ‘far enemy’ — the Zionist-Crusader [America] — or do we focus our efforts on the apostate regime [Algeria]? Or do you advise a middle path of striking both enemies?” he asked.

It is impossible to confirm independently whether any of questioners are really active fighters. Nor is it possible to verify that the interview offer really came from Mr. Zawahri, although it was posted with the logo of Al-Sahab, which issues his videotapes.

But the questions focused on the same issues that Western terrorism experts have long debated, including how much direct support and command Messrs. Zawahri and bin Laden give to militants in Arab countries and Europe.


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