LONDON – Tony Blair appeared to be heading today for a record third term in Downing Street after the final opinion polls of the election campaign showed Labor on course to secure a reduced, but still comfortable, majority in the House of Commons.

According to a YouGov survey for the Daily Telegraph, Mr. Blair has lost ground since 2001, but not enough to challenge his grip on power, despite last-minute signs that the economy is weaker than Labor has claimed.

Economists yesterday gave warning of an economic slowdown later this year and said there was growing evidence that consumer confidence was faltering.

The budget clothing store Matalan and the music store HMV joined other British retailers in warning of falling sales. The number of mortgage repossessions is expected to rise by 35% from last year and a leading investment bank, Credit Suisse, warned of a “considerable slump in business in the second quarter of the year.”

Labor has put the strength of the economy at the center of its campaign. But the latest warnings appear to have come too late to affect the voting today.

YouGov gave Labor a five-point lead, indicating that the Conservatives have failed to gain momentum during the final days of the campaign.

The poll puts Labor on 37%, the Tories on 32 and the Liberal Democrats on 24. Three other polls today show a similar picture.

A national uniform swing would suggest a Labor majority of about 130 – compared to 161 now – though it could be cut to 80 or 90 seats as a result of closer battles in marginal constituencies.

Tory morale was hit by signs of a late surge in Liberal Democrat support. They appear to be the principal beneficiaries of a protest vote against Labor. Mr. Blair, who made a 650-mile helicopter dash around marginal seats warned his party against complacency.

He said it was “tight and tough” in the marginals and Labor was fighting “constituency by constituency.” But Labor’s concern was more to ensure that Mr. Blair returned with a three-figure majority, which would give him a decisive third term mandate.

Michael Howard, who has fought a tireless, largely one-man campaign, and the Liberal Democrat leader, Charles Kennedy, kept up a hectic pace, both convinced that the election was much closer than the polls suggested.

Mr. Blair, flanked once again by Gordon Brown, symbolically chose Lady Thatcher’s old constituency, the north London marginal of Finchley, to hold his final news conference of the campaign. All his Cabinet was present on stage as he sought to highlight the divide between Labor and the Tories.

“The choice is fundamental, between a Labor government or a Conservative government – forward with policies properly worked out for the future of this country or a return to the past,” he said. Last night, he went to his Sedgefield constituency in County Durham where he will vote this morning.

Mr. Howard, a long-standing supporter of Liverpool Football Club, drew inspiration from his team’s European Cup semi-final victory.

Earlier in the campaign, Mr. Howard suggested the Tories were 2-0 down.

But he said Liverpool’s victory could be an “omen” and rallied his party for one final effort by quoting the Liverpool manager who said, “what you need is to work hard and believe to the end”.

The Tories are convinced they are doing better in the key marginal seats than the national polls suggest, with Conservative supporters more determined to vote than at any time since 1992.

Mr. Howard said the electorate had the chance to allow the country to change course and “open a new chapter of hope of action and achievement” by voting Conservative.

He rejected criticism that the Tory campaign had been too negative and defended his decision to brand Mr. Blair a “liar” over Iraq.