Gold-Standard Election Forecaster Predicts Kansas Senate Seat Now a ‘Toss Up’ as Other States Move Away from Republicans

Just days after Senate Republicans’ chief ad spending group funneled millions of dollars to the Senate race in Kansas, a gold-standard political forecaster says the seat is now a “Toss Up,” even though President Trump carried Kansas by 16 points in 2024. Two other Senate races — North Carolina and New Hampshire — are also being moved toward Democrats and away from the GOP. The Cook Political Report has been rating the likelihood of which party will win certain seats in Congress and which gubernatorial elections since 1984, analyzing more than 11,000 races over the course of four decades. Their rating system is widely respected across the political spectrum, with members of both parties highlighting the firm’s rating moves in ads and in fundraising pleas. On Tuesday, the Cook Political Report moved the Kansas Senate race from “Lean Republican” to “Toss Up” amid Republican concerns that the seat could fall out of their hands. Senator Roger Marshall, first elected in 2020, has trailed his Democratic opponent, The Reverend Adam Hamilton, in recent polls and has required a $14 million ad spending injection from the Senate Leadership Fund, the chief outside fundraising arm of the Senate GOP.The Cook Political Report writes in its analysis of the Kansas race that the election is now a toss up, in part, because “President Donald Trump is a drag across the board even in deep red states due to rising fuel prices and the persistent high cost of living.”At this point, the question isn’t whether Democrats will gain seats, but how many. As such, we are revising our estimate of potential pickups to two to six seats for Democrats — squarely within the range of the four seats they need to net for a majority,” the analysis states. According to an average of polling aggregates, the race is a statistical tie, with Reverend Hamilton leading Dr. Marshall by two-tenths of one percent. Two of Kansas’s Republican former governors have endorsed Reverend Hamilton, the senior pastor of the largest United Methodist congregation in the country. It isn’t just Kansas that the Cook Political Report is moving toward Democrats. On Tuesday, the firm also announced that the New Hampshire Senate race was moving to “Lean Democrat” from “Toss Up,” while the North Carolina Senate race moved to “Likely Democrat” from “Lean Democrat.”Last week, the Senate Leadership Fund canceled its ad reservations in North Carolina in order to spend additional money in Texas. A Democratic former governor, Roy Cooper, is expected to flip the seat in November after leading in the polls by nearly ten points for much of the last year. Democrats have also pulled out of the North Carolina contest — a sign of confidence in Mr. Cooper’s ability to handle the final month of campaigning on his own. The current GOP incumbent, Senator Thom Tillis, urged Senate Republican admakers to consider abandoning the North Carolina race in order to protect the Republican majority itself. He said the money would be better spent in red states like Texas and Ohio, where Republicans have far greater chances of winning. The New Hampshire race has been a surprisingly competitive one, as the Democratic nominee, Congressman Chris Pappas, faced a challenge from his party’s left flank ahead of the primary. Mr. Pappas is facing off against a former senator, John Sununu, who is running to reclaim his seat after losing it in 2008. Mr. Sununu is a member of the famous Sununu political dynasty in the state, where his father and brother both served as governors.

Gold-Standard Election Forecaster Predicts Kansas Senate Seat Now a ‘Toss Up’ as Other States Move Away from Republicans

Gold-Standard Election Forecaster Predicts Kansas Senate Seat Now a ‘Toss Up’ as Other States Move Away from Republicans

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