Iran’s Attack on Iraqi Kurdistan Could Signal Escalating War to Come

Kurds in northern Iraq attempted to reignite negotiations between Washington and Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps. Shortly after a report appeared in the press on the secret mediation, Iranian drones struck the office of Kurdistan’s prime minister, signaling that Tehran is disinterested in diplomacy and is headed for escalation instead. Was there a direct link between Sunday’s Axios report that Iraqi Kurdistan’s President, Nechirvan Barzani, was trying to broker a deal between President Trump and the IRGC and Monday’s attack on the Erbil office of the president’s cousin, Prime Minister Masrour Barzani? “Following an investigation by the Kurdistan Counter-Terrorism Unit, my personal office and the home of the head of the Security and Intelligence Agency were targeted by Iranian drone attacks earlier today,” Prime Minister Barzani wrote on X Monday. “This is a dangerous escalation and a direct threat to the security and stability of the Kurdistan Region.”The Kurds of Erbil are seen as one of the region’s top allies of America and Israel. A rival Kurdish clan, the Suleimanieh-based Talabanis, is seen as closer to the Islamic Republic. Yet the Barzanis do maintain uneasy ties to Tehran. Years ago the Kurdish president, Nechirvan Barzani, spent time in Iran, and is reportedly fluent in the Farsi language.Why Would Erbil Deal With Tehran?Kurdish ties to Iran go back to the days of Saddam Hussein, who ruthlessly butchered Kurds, including in an infamous chemical attack at Halabja, in the Talabani-controlled region, where thousands of Kurds were killed in 1988. Saddam’s enemy, Iran, was seen as a possible ally. It is possible that to reduce regional friction, President Barzani would turn to American interlocutors in an attempt to mediate with contacts he has in the Revolutionary Guard Corps. At the same time, though, the Islamic Republic and the Kurds are at cross purposes when it comes to current Iraqi politics. One of the biggest hurdles facing the recently elected President, Ali al Zaidi, is America’s demand to disarm Shiite militias affiliated with Iran. “While the Talabani and Barzani clans are in competition among themselves, both agree that the militias must disarm,” a veteran Iraq watcher at Haifa University, Amatzia Bar’am, tells The New York Sun. “Both of them want to reduce Iran’s influence at Baghdad, and both would rather increase America’s influence there.”Economic competition also plays a role in the rift between Erbil and Tehran, Mr. Bar’am adds. A while back, for one, the Kurds made a deal with Baghdad to supply Iraq’s natural gas at a lower price than was previously offered by Iran. Tehran sees Erbil as a problem and often targets Kurdish sites in northern Iraq. Tehran’s Attacks on Erbil Escalate While the brazen Monday strike at Masrour Barzani’s office is seen as a major escalation, it is far from the first such attack. The Iranians tried to hit the prime minister’s office several times during the recent war, but the premier’s office “decided not to announce it for security reasons,” an Iraqi Kurd with close ties to Erbil tells the Sun.The IRGC chose the Monday target because “the most pro-American person in the entire Iraq, who is even close to Israel, is Prime Minister Barzani,” the source added. “For them, he is a big problem, a big hurdle.”The recently elected Iraqi prime minister, Mr. Zaidi , visited the White House recently. Yet he is walking a tight rope, attempting to navigate between the interests of Washington and Tehran. At the same time, the president, a businessman, is tied to the Barzanis as both have financial assets in the United Arab Emirates. Such ties might have raised Tehran’s suspicion as President Barzani attempted to engage in diplomatic overtures. Kurdish Diplomacy: an Anatomy of a FailureAxios reported on Sunday that back in May President Barzani reached out to the IRGC chief, Ahmad Vahidi, on Washington’s behalf. On Monday the London-based Amwaj Media website reported that Mr. Vahidi rejected the attempt, and advised that the correct channels for negotiations are the civilian leadership, parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.“Iranian sources suggest that after an internal assessment, the conclusion was reached that there was no need to open an additional channel since there was already direct communication and Pakistan/Qatar were mediating,” Amwaj editor in chief, Mohammad Ali Shabani, wrote on X. Monday marked the 60th day of a June memorandum of understanding between America and Iran, according to which a deal on the nuclear file was to be reached. Such a pact seems ever more elusive now. “They’re not gonna make the kind of deal that I feel is necessary,” President Trump told reporters on Monday. Did the Erbil Attack, Then, Signal a Future Iranian Escalation?“Instead of attacking Israel or America directly, the Iranians will go after their allies in the region, which is what we’ve seen obviously since March,” a Washington-based Iraqi source with close ties at Baghdad tells the Sun. “In the past three weeks Iran has been intensifying attacks across the region,” another source, a Kurd, added. The IRGC specifically targets “any political asset, any military asset that they think could weaken the U.S. in a coming war,” the source said, citing contacts of his at the UAE and Erbil.Over the weekend the Wall Street Journal reported on a “secret” Iranian plan to escalate the war. Tehran, the report says, considers attempts at diplomatic negotiations with Washington to be an illusion — an American plot to undermine the Islamic Republic.The Revolutionary Guards used the 60-day lull in fighting following the June 17 signing of the memorandum to rearm and prepare its forces and proxy militias across the region for war. The attacks, reportedly will be directed at soft targets of America’s allies. The Kurdish attempt at mediating between America and the Islamic Republic, it seems, was mostly unsuccessful because the two parties have little they can agree on. It backfired on Monday, when, as is often the case in Kurdish history, Iran attacked Erbil.

Iran’s Attack on Iraqi Kurdistan Could Signal Escalating War to Come

Iran’s Attack on Iraqi Kurdistan Could Signal Escalating War to Come

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