Iran’s Retaliatory Strikes Spare Turkey, Tehran’s Quiet Ally Within the North Atlantic Treaty

Call President Recep Tayyip Erdogan sentimental, if not cynical: he wants you to think he’s had a uniquely rough week. The death of a good friend, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has reportedly left him in grief — but as the Islamic Republic attacks soldiers and civilians across the Middle East, Turkey’s immunity merits examination.Turkey, despite hosting a sizable American force presence on major regional bases, is not among the myriad countries Iran has targeted with drones and missiles since February 28. Despite the violations of Arab states’ security and sovereignty, which he pretends to champion, Mr. Erdogan has done little to rebuke Tehran’s regime, instead blaming his go-to suspect: Israel. Pro-Erdogan propaganda outlets are rife with articles accusing Israel of tricking America into invading Iran.The Islamic Republic’s thugs have not forgotten Mr. Erdogan’s kindness, and they see a strategic use for him yet. Washington, Jerusalem, the Iranian people, and the states coming under Iranian regime fire will want to remember this.Mr. Erdogan’s cadre has had the Islamic Republic’s back since Tehran murdered tens of thousands of civilian protesters at the start of 2026. Instead of expressing disgust over the Ayatollah’s massacres, the Turkish foreign minister, Hakan Fidan, declared that “Iran needs to solve its authentic internal problems on its own.”When American military assets began arriving in the Middle East in late January, Ankara quickly rushed to Tehran’s aid. Mr. Fidan platformed his “dear friend and brother,” the Iranian foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, at a last-minute press conference in Istanbul on January 30, buying the Iranian regime a negotiating table, time, and options. Turkey was no neutral interlocutor: Mr. Fidan suggested in a February 10 interview that there was “no evidence” Iran was seeking nuclear weapons.Turkish statements since February 28 have surely pleased what remains of Iran’s high command. Mr. Erdogan announced how “saddened” he was to hear of Khamenei’s demise, extending condolences to the Iranian people whom he oppressed. Mr. Erdogan’s remarks still laid blame at America and Israel’s feet, “deploring” the elimination of Tehran’s terrorists extraordinaire. Although he called Iranian strikes on Arab states “unacceptable” in passing, he declined to sign the regional joint statement condemning the attacks on March 1. Ankara has long sought to stem the tide of a military campaign to weaken or even remove the Tehran regime. Ensuring its longevity was key to Mr. Erdogan’s goal of relying on Iran’s proxies (Hezbollah and Hamas) to undermine Israel’s security and to prevent the emergence of an American and Israeli security framework for the Middle East. That hope has likely been dashed.From Iran’s perspective, avoiding attacks against Turkey is likely to remain the best option. The regime likely considers this war as the last war it will have to ever fight. It cannot rely on the Gulf states for an off-ramp, but the regime may need Turkey. What makes Turkey unique in Tehran’s calculation is Ankara’s demonstrated ability and desire to advocate for the regime’s interests. Mr. Erdogan has been emphatic, even calling his Saudi counterpart, in stating that an intervention to end the war is vital to prevent the region from being engulfed in “a ring of fire.” Tehran also knows that Mr. Erdogan has a good relationship with President Trump — and if Mr. Trump is going to listen to any regional leader vouching for the regime, Mr. Erdogan is likely their best bet. Washington should take care not to trust the words of a snake-oil salesman. Mr. Erdogan is only interested in augmenting Ankara’s position of power, which he desires at the expense of Israeli and American interests in eliminating the Islamic Republic. Turkey has no desire to see a free and democratic Iran — especially one friendly to Israel — emerge as a renewed Middle Eastern power.In the event that the Tehran regime falters, its leadership will likely seek out a place to flee. Turkey may be the most attractive “golden parachute” for Islamic Republic fugitives: sheltering under the auspices of a NATO member would render them virtually untouchable. After all, it was Turkey which agreed, beginning in 2011, to provide sanctuary to Hamas officials. ____________The Turkey Program Research Intern at Foundation for Defense of Democracies, William Doran, contributed to the authorship of this article.

Iran’s Retaliatory Strikes Spare Turkey, Tehran’s Quiet Ally Within the North Atlantic Treaty

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