January 6 Committee Trimming Its Sails as Televised Hearings Struggle to Move Public Opinion

The January 6 Committee’s hearings have failed to shift public opinion toward blaming President Trump and congressional Republicans for the 2021 riot at the Capitol, according to polling by Politico and Morning Consult.The new data on the public perception of the hearings come as the panel divides on whether to issue a criminal referral — a recommendation for prosecution — against Mr. Trump for his role in the attack. Polling shows the idea of such a referral is much less popular among independents and Republicans.The poll also showed a wide partisan gap in who has been most captivated by the hearings, with Democrats much more likely to tune in and to factor the events of January 6 into their voting in the midterm elections.The poll also indicates that attempts to accuse Mr. Trump and his Republican allies of a “conspiracy,” as Representative Elizabeth Cheney described it, have had little effect on the views of the public. The poll found that 57 percent of voters believe Mr. Trump is “at least somewhat responsible for the events that led to a group of people attacking the Capitol.” That represents a decline from January 2021, when 63 percent of voters said he was responsible.Belief about the responsibility of Republicans in Congress has similarly declined since January of 2021, to 49 percent from 52 percent.However, it has slightly ticked up since the hearings, from 47 percent in May. The new poll indicates that 78 percent of Democrats favor “legal action” against “elected officials who have misled Americans about the outcome of an election,” compared with 59 percent of independents and 48 percent of Republicans.New announcements from members of the panel might herald a change in strategy to sway the undecided.The chairman of the committee, Representative Bennie Thompson, announced Monday that the panel has no plans to issue a “criminal referral” against Mr. Trump.Mr. Thompson’s statement was immediately walked back by Ms. Cheney, who stated that the committee “has not issued a conclusion regarding potential criminal referrals.”The poll showed 51 percent of voters surveyed supported the committee — the highest since July 2021, when it first posed the question. This is a 2 percent increase from last month, before the commencement of the hearings. The partisan gap in perception of the committee has also become more pronounced over the last year. Support among Democrats for the committee has risen to 84 percent from 80 percent over the past year while it has declined among Republicans to 20 percent from 25 percent.Part of the struggle to significantly move the public’s view on the events of January 6 may be explained by the audience the hearings have drawn. The New York Times reports that about 20 million people tuned in for the first prime time hearing. Polling, however, indicates that while 57 percent of Democrats tuned in for all or part of the first night of hearings only 27 percent of Republicans and 33 percent of independents did the same. Meanwhile, only 6 percent of Republicans say they watched the hearing in full.“A regular viewing audience of that composition is unlikely to translate into a big swing in public opinion,” Morning Consult’s editor, Cameron Easley, said in his summary of the new polls.This speaks to the difficulty Democrats face as they attempt to use the hearing to beat back a Republican surge in November’s midterm elections.Sixty-nine percent of Democrats say that the events of January 6 will “have an impact” on how they vote — 50 percent say the impact will be “major.” Fifty-one percent of independents and 69 percent of Republicans, meanwhile, say the events at the Capitol will have “no impact at all” on their vote. The survey, conducted between June 10 and 12, polled 2,005 registered voters on six questions related to the events of January 6, 2021, and the hearings that have been conducted to investigate the riot that occurred on that day.

January 6 Committee Trimming Its Sails as Televised Hearings Struggle to Move Public Opinion

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